[ad_1]
Iranians pray for a normal country
With the reintroduction, last week, US sanctions on the Iranian oil trade, it was feared a surge in oil prices. These fears were misplaced. At the end of the week, the price was at its lowest in six months.
This is good news for most of us, especially US President Donald Trump, but bad news for Iran, which was hoping for higher prices to bolster its troubled finances. In addition, countries that have obtained exemptions allowing them to continue to buy Iranian oil still can not pay Tehran directly; the funds must be paid into a special account, which Iran can use to pay for its humanitarian needs.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has promised to sell oil without worrying about sanctions. Perhaps he intends to do so on the black market, where customers may be willing to take the risk because of the high quality of Iranian oil and low prices. In this way, Iran could earn something to pay for its continued regional interference, but knowing if its leaders can pacify ordinary Iranians, already angry at the shortage of medicines and daily price increases, is another problem.
The sanctions were initially imposed by the administration of Barack Obama in 2010. They worked. In spite of the hatred of the Ayatollahs towards the United States, they went to the negotiating table and signed the 2015 agreement to limit their nuclear program and to lift the sanctions.
Donald Trump wants to talk about Iran's behavior in the region and the sanctions are in place until this behavior changes.
Camelia Entekhabifard
From the beginning, however, two questions are on the table: not only the nuclear program, but the regional behavior of Iran. Obama's policy was to first settle the nuclear issue and leave more questions for later. In this he succeeded. The Iranian nuclear program has been dismantled to the point that it is difficult to revive it, even if the Iranian leaders want it.
For Obama's successor, however, that's not enough. Donald Trump wants to talk about Iran's behavior in the region and the sanctions are in place until this behavior changes. Essentially, Trump wants to complete Obama's unfinished business.
It will not be an easy task. The region is in chaos, in Syria and elsewhere, and the guards of the Islamic Revolution have taken the opportunity to pursue its own regional goals and expand its networks.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Iran to behave like a normal nation, and a normal Iran is what an ordinary Iranian prays for every night. However, it is unclear whether Tehran leaders are able to withdraw support for groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Assad regime in Syria. The challenge facing Tehran's ruling clergy comes not only from the United States, but also from regional mercenaries that Iran has funded.
Unfortunately for the regime, while they are looking for a way to negotiate and settle their bills with all these militias, the country will be ruined – and it is not obvious that the Iranian people will have the patience.
-
Camelia Entekhabifard is a US-Iranian journalist, political commentator and author of Camelia: save yourself by telling the truth (Seven Stories Press, 2008). Twitter: @CameliaFard
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the authors of this section are theirs and do not necessarily reflect the views of Arab News.
