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The recent lull in the tropical activities of the Atlantic Ocean could end mid-week.
A disturbed weather zone, known as the tropical wave, is heading to the Lesser Antilles and is currently being monitored to potentially become the next organized system in the Atlantic Basin.
The system is currently in an environment that does not support development, but this could change depending on the track being taken.
"If this system went far enough north of the Caribbean islands, it would allow some organization," said AccuWeather meteorologist Brett Rathbun.
"A weaker wind shear will be in place across the southwestern Atlantic, which would contribute to further development," he said.
Wind shear is the change of speed and direction of winds on different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can shred tropical storms or hurricanes.
The system can strengthen a tropical or subtropical depression (with partial tropical features). If this escalates into a named storm, it will be called Patty.
On the other hand, the odds would be unfavorable to development if the system maintained a more westerly trajectory on the mountainous islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
"Even if this scenario goes awry and a tropical depression or storm ever forms, showers and gusty winds would still be spread from the Leeward Islands to Hispaniola Monday night through to Thursday," said Courtney Travis, meteorologist at AccuWeather.
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The torrential rains can even reach the east of Cuba if the system moves sufficiently to the west.
Isolated incidents of flash floods and landslides can not be excluded.
A shorter period of showers can still target the islands if the system heads north and the window opens for development. However, the islands are likely to escape the strongest rain and the strongest winds in the system.
"Whether this feature develops fully or not, the latest indications drive it to the Bahamas towards the end of the week, then turn it sharply to the northeast towards the central Atlantic, far from the United States," according to Rathbun.
The system should be subject to a non-tropical storm threatening to hit the eastern United States by the end of the week.
Download the AccuWeather app for free to stay informed about tropical warnings and hazards.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs until November 31st. Although the peak of the season has long passed, a named storm has formed in the Atlantic Basin in November of each of the past three seasons.
Click on the image above to play Forecaster Challenge and test your skills in time forecasting.
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