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There were quite a few surprises across the AFC and NFC in Week 10 that shook up the NFL playoff picture ahead of Week 11. There was enough to make things a lot more interesting for the final seven weeks of the 2018 NFL regular season.
Here is what the seeding would look like if the playoffs started today, including analysis of where every team stands in the race for the eight division titles and four wild-card berths.
MORE: NFL standings | Week 10 scoreboard
NFL playoff picture
AFC
Who would be in:
1. Chiefs (9-1), first in AFC West
They don’t need to worry about that Patriots loss as much anymore with a comfortable, two-game lead for the top seed and home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Now the bigger concern seems to be holding off the surging Chargers to win the division. The eventual best team in the West will be the conference championship favorite, and Kansas City still is well positioned to maintain the status quo.
2. Steelers (6-2-1), first in AFC North
Their thrashing of the Panthers to kick off Week 10 was rewarded, as the Patriots’ stumble against the Titans gave the Steelers total control of the second bye position for the AFC playoffs. The Steelers are bound to stay hot in November with the Jaguars and Broncos left, but December will decide everything with the Chargers, Patriots and Saints on deck.
3. Patriots (7-3), first in AFC East
They won’t be panicking despite the debacle against the Titans, because they’ll use the Week 11 bye to resettle themselves and get healthier, leading with Rob Gronkowski. But it has to be mildly concerning that Tom Brady hasn’t been at his GOATest for a few games. The good news is they have four easy division games left, get the Vikings at home and get their direct shot at the Steelers on the road.
4. Texans (6-3), first in AFC South
They didn’t get to enjoy the bye as much with the Titans, who beat them earlier, moving to within one game and the Colts jumping the Jaguars to be a factor in the division, too. Beyond rematches with Tennessee and Indianapolis, Houston has two NFC road toughies against Washington and Philadelphia. Staying in first place and keeping this seed won’t be easy, but it’s looking like there will be room for two South teams in the playoffs.
5. Chargers (7-2), wild card
After losing at home to the Chiefs in Week 1 and on the “road” to the Rams in Week 3, they have had a few narrow escapes with the resume in retrospect starting to look better as they continue to get better overall. The Chargers would love help from the Rams against the Chiefs in Week 11 to help set up a de facto division title game in Week 15 at Kansas City.
6. Bengals (5-4), wild card
They got routed at home by the Saints to make this position even more precarious, with the only positive being it was an NFC team, so they still hold a mild conference-record tiebreaker. They have road rematches with the Ravens and Steelers sandwiching a favorable schedule overall, but they look like a limp contender at the moment.
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Who’s knocking on the door:
7. Titans (5-4)
Mike Vrabel keeps putting his hat back in the coach of the year ring with how his team, once inept on offense, has come out like gangbusters with Marcus Mariota after the bye to harmonize with their underrated defense. The Titans look determined for a playoff return, but the division still is the path of least resistance given they lost to the Dolphins and Ravens, the two teams behind them for the wild card.
Who’s hanging around:
8. Dolphins (5-5)
9. Ravens (4-5)
10. Colts (4-5)
Speaking of Miami and Baltimore, it’s hard to trust either team because there’s no consistent identity, marked by frustrating quarterback play and coaching. It’s not any different from the two teams’ muddled contention from recent years. That makes Indianapolis a better bet to steal the second wild card.
Who’s just about out:
11. Browns (3-6-1)
12. Jaguars (3-6)
13. Broncos (3-6)
14. Bills (3-7)
15. Jets (3-7)
16. Raiders (1-8)
The Browns have had a big season just to get out of the bottom four in the AFC. The Jaguars’ disappointing season in the face of high expectations will likely cost Doug Marrone his job. The fact that the Jets have fallen behind the Bills after being destroyed by them at home is a troubling development for Todd Bowles. The Raiders, in relation, remain the most embarrassing.
MORE: In Baker Mayfield, Browns have a ‘dangerous’ leader for the future
NFL playoff picture
NFC
Who would be in:
1. Rams (9-1), first in NFC West
The Rams’ defense held on for a big rebound win to sweep the Seahawks and put the division out of reach for a second consecutive season. Now it’s a matter of trying to finish a full game ahead of the Saints since New Orleans has the head-to-head tiebreaker, so having an extra, pre-bye win helps. The home crowd is starting to help LA more, but the top seed is more critical just to take away another team’s advantage.
2. Saints (8-1), first in NFC South
The Saints put up a 50 burger in Cincinnati while the Panthers gave up one in Pittsburgh. New Orleans would love to extend that two-game division lead to three before the first of two games against Carolina in Week 15. Speaking of the Steelers, they are suddenly the only other above-.500 opponent the Saints have left on the schedule, in Week 16.
3. Bears (6-3), first in NFC North
The Bears ripped another bad team, the Lions, at home, and still get the Lions again and both the Giants and 49ers outside of the division. Those are all on the road, and the Bears will get to see how they stack up against the Rams in Week 14. Winning the division will require at least splitting with Minnesota, which makes the teams’ Week 11 Sunday night matchup in Chicago monumental.
4. Redskins (6-3), first in NFC East
Washington doesn’t get any style points for how it won in Tampa Bay, but it was still an effective victory because it reaffirmed the team’s surprise grip on the division, which is now up to two games after Dallas dragged down Philadelphia. The Redskins have the Eagles twice, the Cowboys once more on the road and the Giants again at home to try to dominate the weak East. Week 16 at Tennessee is Washington’s toughest game left now.
5. Panthers (6-3), wild card
Carolina gets a mini-bye to pick up the pieces after the loss in Pittsburgh. The next month also looks good for the Panthers to get well before facing the Saints, as the Lions, Buccaneers and Browns present more winnable road games than that midweek trip to Heinz Field. Also in that stretch, they get the Seahawks at home. With the Falcons, Seahawks and Eagles all losing, it would take a massive collapse for the Panthers not to secure at least the No. 6 seed.
6. Vikings (5-3-1), wild card
Minnesota stayed here during its bye and saw Chicago pad the division lead and Green Bay creep up behind. The Vikings will need to play well immediately after the bye to either repeat in the North or at least stay here. Week 11 at the Bears is only one of three tough road games over the next month; they also need to go to New England in Week 13 after hosting the Packers in Week 12.
Who’s knocking on the door:
7. Packers (4-4-1)
8. Falcons (4-5)
9. Seahawks (4-5)
10. Cowboys (4-5)
11. Eagles (4-5)
There’s a lot of marquee playoff recency in this disappointing group, isn’t there? The Eagles are last in this pecking order with a shocking 2-4 conference record, while the Falcons, whom they beat in Week 1, are still 4-2 to lead the group because they fell to an AFC opponent. Green Bay and Atlanta need to focus more on the wild card with two strong teams ahead of them in their divisons. Dallas and Philadelphia need to focus on making up two games on Washington to sneak away with the East.
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Who’s just about out:
12. Buccaneers (3-6)
13. Lions (3-6)
14. Cardinals (2-7)
15. 49ers (2-7)
16. Giants (1-7)
The Bucs have joined this group in the rough, (likely) final year of Dirk Koetter, while the Lions have punched their near-elimination ticket in the first year of Matt Patricia. The 49ers can make sure they won’t be among NFC’s worst by dispatching the Giants at home a week after they did the same to the Raiders.
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