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WASHINGTON – Trump administration discusses need to press Afghan government to suspend next presidential elections, according to informed people, as US seeks talks with Taliban to end to the 17 years of war.
The possibility of such an approach, one of the options considered by the American authorities, testifies to the urgency that the administration sees in the attempt to negotiate a political advance in a conflict that has embarrassed three successive American presidents, according to These persons.
To urge the US authorities to suspend the April elections, US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad discussed the idea that US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad would have had discussions with various stakeholders and officials. intermediaries, which would be controversial after the United States has long promoted democracy in Afghanistan. Mr. Khalilzad's office declined to comment on his efforts.
Last week, members of the Election Complaints Commission examined voting in a polling center in Badakhshan province, Afghanistan.
Photo:
Mohammad Sharif Shayeq / Zuma Press
A key player would oppose this idea: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who is expected to run for a second five-year term in the elections. "Continuity in a democratic process is a necessity, and any proposal other than the will of the Afghans, which is set out in our constitution, is simply unacceptable," said Ghani's spokesman Haroon Chakhansoori.
Speaking on the recent legislative elections held in Kabul last week, Ghani said the presidential vote would proceed as scheduled on April 20. "On the basis of the free election, full and inclusive election, people will decide on their future direction," he said.
Pressuring Afghanistan to postpone the elections would probably create a gap between Washington and Kabul. Because the Afghan government needs American financial and military support from the United States, the Trump administration exerts considerable influence, but the ultimate decision would be made by Afghan leaders who were wary of American influence.
The justification for a discussion on a possible suspension involves elusive peace talks with the insurgent Taliban. Some US officials fear that the irregularities and prolonged political unrest that regularly accompany the Afghan vote will paralyze or destroy any peace process that Mr. Khalilzad is able to launch.
Afghanistan held delayed legislative elections. WSJ's head of office in Kabul, Craig Nelson, explains why this is a crucial moment for US-backed efforts to open peace talks in this war-torn country. Photo: AP
US authorities are considering other ways of quickly integrating the Taliban into a political process with Afghan leaders in Kabul, but they still need to find sufficient common ground between rival parties to move the process forward, said the people . Neither the Taliban spokesman nor his political representatives in Qatar could be contacted for comment.
President Trump questioned the role of the United States in Afghanistan, while reluctantly adopting a new strategy to increase the number of American troops in the country to 15,000. Khalilzad told his colleagues that he was likely to have six to twelve months to make a breakthrough for the president, people informed of the talks said.
Khalilzad is a "man in a hurry," said Robin Raphel, a former US diplomat who has worked for years in South Asia.
The idea of a postponement was the subject of an icy reception in Kabul, where Mr. Khalilzad met Sunday with Afghan officials and politicians.
A woman voted in parliamentary elections in Kandahar, Afghanistan, on October 27.
Photo:
muhammad sadiq / epa-efe / rex / Shutterstock
Many Afghan officials have also voiced opposition to any suspension, but the project enjoys discreet support from Mr. Ghani's government. A senior Afghan politician said he would not oppose the cancellation of the poll if the opportunity arose.
"For a peace agreement, you must be flexible," said the political figure. "The (presidential) election is not greater than peace."
Another alternative being discussed would allow the elections to unfold, with the understanding that the new government would sit on an interim basis while the warring parties attempted to create a ruling coalition including the Taliban, according to a Western diplomat.
"There is no easy scenario," said the diplomat.
Another approach would be to create a special assembly of Afghan leaders, which would choose a new interim government to lead the country as the warring parties develop a plan to end the war. Afghan officials, including former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, called for such an assembly, known as Loya Jirga.
The Trump administration quietly began direct talks with the Taliban earlier this year, as US military efforts to subdue insurgent advances were fading. Trump's strategy of ending the one-year war has produced few positive results.
The Afghan government's control over the country's districts has reached its lowest level since the US inspector-general in charge of rebuilding Afghanistan, which began assessing the information in 2015. The Mr. Ghani's government depends on the United States and other foreign donors for the bulk of its funding, including: billions of dollars each year to train and equip his army and police.
Last month's parliamentary elections were tainted by Taliban violence, delays and electoral irregularities, which raised questions about the legitimacy of the process and Ghani's ability to oversee a viable presidential election this spring. , while the fighting season begins normally.
This has raised concerns among some US and Afghan leaders who fear Trump may abandon his strategy for South Asia as he prepares to run for a second term.
"I do not think Trump wants to get re-elected with more soldiers in Afghanistan than when Obama left office and has no idea what they're doing there," said a political observer. long-time based in Kabul.
The sense of urgency helped galvanize the efforts of Khalilzad, former US ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, who took up his new role in September.
Khalilzad is scheduled to meet Taliban leaders in Doha, Qatar, next week, according to reports on his travel plans. He could also meet with Taliban members in Dubai, according to an official informed of the talks.
The Taliban's political commission in Doha has been bolstered by the addition of high-ranking personalities who have already been held at Guantanamo Bay and who could help influence the group's decision makers based in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Western officials said.
This so-called "Taliban Five" was released during the 2015 exchange of Bowe Bergdahl, a US Army sergeant detained by militants. Among the Taliban Five was Mohammad Fazl, former head of the Taliban army, who could help bring the group's dominant military wing into the peace process.
Barriers to the talks include the size and status of the future US military presence in Afghanistan and the Taliban's refusal to engage with Ghani's government so far. Mr. Ghani offered to enter into unconditional talks with the Taliban, but they repeatedly described his administration as an American puppet and refused.
To urge the Taliban to begin substantive discussions, Mr. Khalilzad "suggested that a postponement of the elections could be an element of the peace process," said a former US administration official informed of the Negotiations progress.
With regard to the postponement of the elections, a conference similar to that held in Bonn (Germany) in 2001 and which brought together a post-Taliban administration in Kabul could be considered. This time, however, the Taliban would be represented at the table. Mr Khalilzad played a key role at the Bonn conference in 2001.
As Khalilzad explores the possibility of suspending elections, other US officials are working with Mr. Ghani to prepare for the April vote.
"We are focusing on and preparing for the presidential election," said a senior US official involved in Afghan affairs.
-Saeed Shah in Islamabad contributed to this article.
Write to Jessica Donati at [email protected], Craig Nelson at [email protected] and Dion Nissenbaum at [email protected]
