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Holiday moviegoing will explode this weekend as Warner Bros. ' Harry Potter spin off Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $ 253M and at the highest $ 275M. On the low end that's 15% higher than the worldwide launch of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them back in November 2016.
While the first movie posted a three-day opening Harry Potter movie with $ 74.4M, it's all about the global play for Warner Bros. with this spinoff series with Fantastic Beasts 1 finaling at $ 814M WW ($ 580M offshore) and a $ 164.7M profit after all ancillaries. Warners is expecting a similar ratio Grindelwald with overseas repping over 70% of the pic's total gross.
The second Fantastic Beasts movie which is inspired by the fictitious textbook in the J.K. Rowling mythology by the expert monster Newt Scamander is even more closely aligned Harry Potter than its 2016 predecessor. Warner Bros. Hummingbirds and Jude Law playing a young Albus Dumbledore, the ultimate headmaster of the school and mentor to Harry Potter. In addition, Johnny Depp plays Gellert Grindelwald, a dark wizard with all things nefarious in the Potter stories.
It's the sixth time J.K. Rowling Harry Potter can not launch in the pre-Thanksgiving space; the first chapter Sorcerer's Stone did back in 2001 which was then a record at that time with $ 90.2M. Broken out Grindelwald is looking at $ 65M- $ 70M stateside with another $ 188M- $ 205M per industry estimates from foreign markets. Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them bowed to $ 145.5M in 63 overseas markets at China and Japan. In like-for-likes, and including China, that translates to about $ 180M today. FB2 is opening in 79 markets out of 80 (2016).
Currently, FB2 Rotten Tomatoes does not have the same magical reviews (58% Rotten to 74% Certified Fresh), but it would be foolhardy to underestimate the Potter faithful. The franchise's fans are among the most loyal of any series of youngsters who have discovered the wizard over several years.
As with the first Fantastic Beasts movie, spells will be cast first in France and Korea on Wednesday as the rest of the world catches up through Friday. Still, Crimes of Grindelwald has a slightly different pattern to the previous movie, going day-and-date everywhere save Japan.
That means that China is part of the opening suite. Venom just got a huge cock out of the market and has been warmly embraced, but FB2 should some nice cash in Newt's case. The last film did an unjusted $ 41M during its 3-day bow, topping the lifetime of all other movies in the Wizarding World, save Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. Local tracking has this one in the $ 45M range after stronger presales than the first movie. WB was released in about 25 minutes of Eddie Redmayne, Jude Law, Ezra Miller and Katherine Waterston back in late October. Imax will also have a China component of the 1,306 screens where its playing the movie in 74 countries for the biggest date-and-date launch in the format's history.
Tonight in the U.S. and Canada and 48 territories, Warner Bros. is holding a 'Fantastic Fandom Event' to coincide with the London premiere. Stateside in 600 locations, there'll be a sneak screening with a special greeting from Redmayne and Law as well as "Connections" which connects all the Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts movies. Tonight's cash will be rolled into the Thursday night preview figure. Those shows will start at 5 PM in 3,300 rentals. By Friday, FB2 will be in play at 4,125 theaters, owning all Imax, Dolby, PLF and motion-seat formats.
FB1 earned $ 8.75M in its domestic Thursday previewing, repping 30% of its $ 29.66M first Friday. Females turned out at 55% per CinemaScore with 65% over 25. FB2 is also skewing more female on tracking. FB1 $ 86M in China (unadjusted) which was the top market of the United States. Typically, the UK and Japan have been the biggest offshore plays for Harry Potter and on FB1 Finaled behind the Middle Kingdom with $ 68M and $ 64M, respectively. Rounding out the Top 5 territories were Germany and Korea. In the latter, Harry Potter and The Sorcerer's Stone was recently re-released theatrically.
France was the No. 6 FB1, and the world premiere for Grindelwald was held in Paris on Nov. 8 as part of the movie takes place there. From there, the team traveled to London for another red carpet unveiling.
Back in November 2016, FB1 was open only while open, while Doctor Strange and trolls were the only holdover pics covering a similar demo. This time around, other movies in holdover Venom in China, Fox's Bohemian Rhapsody and Universal's The Grinch which is wisely holding up on adding new markets until the end of the month after a small rollout this past session. Next up in the family sphere will be Disney's Ralph Breaks The Internet which starts hitting overseas in just a couple key markets beginning Nov. 21. China opens Nov. 23 in the crowded pre-holiday corridor.
Grindelwald Paramount has the Wahlberg Mark-Rose Byrne comedy Instant Family in 3,258 theaters and it's eyeing a mid-teen to $ 20M launch. Previews start Thursday at 7PM.
20th Century Fox has See-Saw's Social-drama-heist movie Widows from 12 Years a Slave director Steve McQueen, which may have $ 20M opening range.
Universal / Participant Media's Green Book is going out in 25 markets before busting on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. CBS Films has At Eternity's Gate in four NY and LA rentals from director Julian Schnabel, starring Willem Dafoe as Vincent van Gogh.
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