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Week 12 is an easy one to ignore. The College Football Playoff rankings like changed and there are only three games on Saturday between teams. Thanksgiving weekend for the weekend.
But what do you think of this week in seismic upsets. Our Lady gets one of its tougher tests of the season in New York against Syracuse while UCF tries to keep its 22-game winning streak alive against the best defense its faced all year.
Each week, I'll give you the answers based on matchups, injuries / suspensions and other factors. Disclaimer: "upset" is defined first and foremost by the point spread, not perception or rankings, though they are both taken into consideration. These are the areas where there is a touchdown with exceptions. I'm also going on the record with the picks and keeping tabs. The scoring system is exactly the same as it is for a long time (ATS) and straight-up (SU).
Week 11 results
Upset alert picks: 2-3
TTY: 2-3
SU: 2-3
Picks to date: 32-23
ATS to date: 27-28
SU to date: 25-30
On this week's picks …
No. 12 Syracuse vs. No. 3 Our Lady
When: Saturday, 2:30 pm ET | Where: New York, New York | line: Our Lady -9.5
Why it's listed: Northwestern was the trendy upset pick over Notre Dame a couple of weeks ago, but Syracuse is more of a threat to actually score on the Irish Fighting stifling defense. We had a slate, this one has palpable excitement to it.
Syracuse's key to the game: Our Lady's passing defense is light, but the combination of Eric Dungey and Jamal Custis is a matchup to the Irish. Custis does not have other worldly stats (748 receiving yards, five TDs), but it's a big-bodied, it's getting bigger and bigger, where he has two scores seven grabs.
Our lady's key to the game: The Irish's defensive line does a good job as a unit getting into the backfield. Defensive tackle Jerry Tillery leads the team with seven sacks and is probably this team's most-improved player.
Pick: Getting quarterback Ian Book back helps and ultimately that's the difference. He does not just raise the ceiling of the offense's potential, he makes the key plays when his team absolutely needs them. ATS: Syracuse, SU: Notre Dame
No. 9 West Virginia at Oklahoma State
When: Saturday, 3:30 pm ET | Where: Stillwater, Oklahoma | line: West Virginia -5.5
Why it's listed: I think it's a good time for the team to make it to Texas. But this is the game before the game against Oklahoma. And while Oklahoma State is not a great team, it is dangerous enough offensively to challenge the Big 12's top brass.
Oklahoma State's key to the game: The Cowboys do not do so much defensively, but they have speedy edge rushers and rank first in the Big 12 in sacks. West Virginia, for all its firepower, does not have a very strong third-down offense (44.12 percent conversion rate).
West Virginia's key to game: Getting to Oklahoma State Quarterback Taylor Cornelius will be high risk-high reward, but the difference in this game. The Pokes have plenty of handfuls and running backs to give the mountaineers trouble, but Cornelius' accuracy is a question mark. Disrupting him early – and West Virginia loves to bring pressure – will be a focal point.
Pick: This seems like a rush upset opportunity if the Mountaineers play stiff. Oklahoma State, but does Mike Gundy's team have it in their hands for 60 minutes all over again after losing to Oklahoma? ATS: Oklahoma State, SU: West Virginia
UAB at Texas A & M
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. AND | Where: College Station, Texas | line: Texas A & M -17
Why it's listed: The Blazers are 9-1 and have already locked up the Conference USA West division. Bill Clark should be the unanimous Coach of the Year, full stop. Plus, UAB also leads the nation in sacks thanks to a disruptive defensive front. This is its Super Bowl and I reckon they'll play like it.
UAB's key to the game: UAB has a real chance to win. The Blazers rank 18th in this category, by S & P +, and getting A & M behind the chains will be critical. The point total is at 47, and combined with the spread, UAB will be on the board. Defense is the first step to doing that.
Texas A & M's key to game: The Aggies allow more people in the SEC and they've had their struggles against dominant defensive fronts like Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State and Alabama. Trayveon Williams, the SEC's leading rusher, will need to break 100 yards and probably score twice for A & M to win comfortably.
Pick: The Blazers' rushing offense goes against one of the stiffest defensive fronts in the country. While UAB will be up for this game, I wonder if they'll have the big plays needed to put stress on A & M for 60 minutes. TTY: UAB, SU: Texas A & M
No. 24 Cincinnati at No. 11 UCF
When: Saturday, 8 pm ET | Where: Orlando, Florida | line: UCF -7.5
Why it's listed: Memphis and Temple played tough UCF, with the unthinkable, but this is the toughest test of the unbeaten Knights will have faced this season. The Bearcats' defense is for real.
Cincinnati's key to the game: The point differentials between UCF (+23) and Cincy (+20) are similar, so I like the Bearcats' odds of dictating this game. Cincy will lean hard on the defense, which is fifth in the nation in points by Michael Warren II. And UCF's defense is more likely to give up vs yards. the run.
UCF's key to the game: If you have a quarterback McKenzie Milton, you have a shot to win. While the Knights are not quite as good as they were a year ago, Milton probably wants to make a big break in the second half to win.
Pick: Lost within all the chatter about the "national champions" and getting the most out of the playoff committee is the achievement of having won 22 straight games. That is unthinkably hard and a streak that will eventually end. UCF has flirted with a couple of times already. ATS: Cincinnati, SU: Cincinnati
Arizona at No. 8 Washington State
When: Saturday, 10:30 pm ET | Where: Pullman, Washington | line: Washington State -9.5
Why it's listed: This is the third straight week of the week. Cougars fans do. It's not personal, promise. The Colorado pick a week ago was flat-out wrong and the result of an oddly low point spread (roll the tape!). Besides, if I'm Wazzu, I'm far more concerned about having to face a sudden Khalil Tate-looking Khalil Tate with Arizona coming off an open week.
Arizona's key to the game: You guessed it. Tate is a difference-maker now that he's healthy and able to use his feet to keep his life alive. While he's not putting up the huge rushing numbers, he's a season ago.
Washington State's key to game: Keeping contain a player of Tate's athletic caliber is not easy and requires a lot of discipline by the first two levels of defense. Goal Washington State's defense has been made easier by putting situations in passing situations (the Cougars have one of the best passing defenses in the Pac-12).
Pick: As much as I like Tate to give defenses – he had 421 yards and three touchdowns in the last couple of years – he needs to be more up to date. ATS: Arizona, SU: Washington State
So which teams should you back in Week 12 of the college football season? And what playoff contender will get its title hopes crushed? Visit SportsLine now to see the score for every single FBS matchup, all from the model that has returned over $ 4,000 in profit to $ 100 bettors over the last three seasons.
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