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EU chief negotiator for Brexit, Michel Barnier, spoke warmly about the draft agreement
European diplomats with an ashy face haunt the Brussels corridors. No sleep for them until Sunday, November 25 – the day scheduled (at the moment) for the "seal of agreement", the Brexit summit between Theresa May and the EU leaders.
So what should they do up there?
Diplomats from the 27 EU countries now have to go through more than 585 pages of the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement with lawyers to ensure that all governments will appreciate.
If a problem is identified, it will have to be forwarded to the team of Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator for the Brexit, as early as this Friday or Saturday.
The 27 Member States (and Theresa May) must also agree on what should be included in the political declaration on future EU-UK relations.
This part of the divorce treaty is not legally binding, but it is of symbolic importance. For now, the text consists only of a series of points and topics. The pressure is definitely committed until the 25th.
But all this could be futile if the agreement on Brexit was rejected by the British parliament in a few weeks.
The EU knows that it is a very real possibility.
I put the question to Michel Barnier Wednesday night at his press conference. But, gifted politician that he is, he refused to engage.
Brussels does not want to give the impression that the EU could change or propose a "better" text on the Brexit agreement if it ends up being rejected in the House of Commons.
According to Theresa May, Mr Barnier said that it was an agreement in the interest of the United Kingdom.
In fact, he spoke so warmly about the agreement – the harshness of the negotiations of the European and British negotiators, their success in protecting the rights of citizens, the Irish border and the constitutional integrity of the EU. UK – that a colleague has commented. it was as if Mr. Barnier, renowned for his suave French style, thought he had managed to pull out an exquisitely designed Faberge egg from the complex process of Brexit.
It is not surprising that he does not want to attack the possibility that this egg is broken.
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In fact, it should not be facing many problems on the part of the EU.
He travels to Strasbourg Thursday to exchange with the European Parliament – which has a veto over the Brexit agreement.
MEPs will look at the part of the withdrawal agreement on the right of citizens with a particularly critical look, because it is the issue on which they have the most tendency to focus. But Mr Barnier has been careful to keep Parliament informed of the negotiations throughout the process, so that it is unlikely that they will refuse a final agreement.
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EU countries also gave Ireland an effective veto over the deal if Dublin was unhappy with the Irish border provisions.
But the Irish Prime Minister gave the green light to the draft text Wednesday. This is no longer a problem.
Spain and Gibraltar, as well as Cyprus and the British military bases on the island were also seen as potential traps. The withdrawal agreement also solved them.
This leaves the concerns of the main trading partners of the EU in the UK (as France and Germany) vis-à-vis what is called the "level playing field" : to ensure that the United Kingdom is bound to extra-European regulations in the temporary customs relations described in the Irish support, should one day be triggered.
About 100 pages of the draft withdrawal treaty are devoted to these additional links – on state aid, the environment and labor regulations – ensuring that UK firms do not have a competitive advantage over the EU in a customs partnership.
Fishing rights in British waters after Brexit have not yet been approved and Spaniards, French, Danes and Dutch will probably have something to say about it – but that's not a drag on negotiation for the moment.
Thus, Europeans mistrustful of political turmoil that could disrupt or destroy the conservative Brexit choreography by November 25 (and beyond) cast a fearful glance over the politically unstable United Kingdom.
This led a European official on Wednesday night to criticize the 585 pages of the draft Brexit Treaty, whispering, "You know what, all this could still end up in the trash."
