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"The story of my death was an exaggeration," said Mark Twain The globe of Boston in June 1897, refutes a brief but disturbing rumor concerning the humorist's health.
More than a century later, New Englanders are becoming more and more familiar with Tom Brady's announcement of the end of football.
It has become an almost annual tradition since 2013. Each time, Brady's responded to the call, echoing Twain's words in his own unmistakable style on the football pitch.
The latest round of charges began to grow after a 34-10 loss to Tennessee against the Titans on Nov. 11. Since then, the predictions of Brady's 41-year-old decline have been made again.
Before making any conclusions about Brady's current state, let's take a look at the notable decline of recent years:
2013
Cian Fahey, of Football Outsiders, in December 2013, was one of the first examples of Brady's decline. Fahey begins by explaining all the offensive weapons that the Patriots lost after the previous season. He explained, however, that it was not Brady who was supporting the New England offensive.
"Unfortunately for [Brady], the tape does not save that statement, "wrote Fahey. "Brady did not raise his individual performance on the field. Instead, he seems finally to have disappeared from the pedestal where he sits among the best quarterbacks in the league. "
In a detailed analysis of Brady's season to date, Fahey concluded that "by looking more closely at the film, it is clear that Brady's decline is the reason why he no longer plays at the historically high levels he established from 2007 to 2012 ".
In his last paragraph, he was describing his film itinerary
It's neglected and understated because of Peyton Manning's success over the past two seasons, but Brady will soon be 37 years old. Although he has not been a quarterback often punished during his career compared to other players, the effects of Father Time seem to suffer. He still displays all his physical abilities, but a declining physique may explain his inconsistency as a smuggler and his growing reluctance to absorb blows into his pocket. The myth and legend of his career obscured our perspective, but it is possible that Brady's decline has already begun. Each star disappears at some point.
Even the brightest of all.
2014
Even before the start of the season, ESPN's Sam Monson sent a shockwave around New England with the title "Tom Brady is no longer a top 5 QB". Citing specific statistics, including percentages of completion under pressure, and an inability to extend play, Monson concluded:
There is no doubt that Brady is still a good quarterback – his peak was so high that even in full decline there is still a long way to go before that becomes a problem – but there is little doubt at this point that we are witnessing its decline in action. Brady is no longer an elite quarterback. It remains very good, but if the decline continues at the same pace, it will not be long before it is more true.
Brady did not immediately dispel skeptics early in the season. A memorable Chiefs loss on Monday night in Football in September provoked a host of Brady reactions (as well as Trent Dilfer's famous claim that they are no longer good about the Patriots as a whole).
Kirk Minihane from WEEI is a great example. He wrote an article entitled "The Uncomfortable Reality of a Falling Tom Brady".
He added that "Brady's offensive line has been brutal, that his players are not really an elite (although he has done more with less in the past) and that Josh McDaniels has shown incredible stupidity. . "
But the blame was quickly returned inexorably to Brady and his rating of 79.1. Minihane concluded with an avalanche of forecasts:
Brady will never win another MVP. He will never play in another Super Bowl in New England. His best days are gone and the days of a level just below his best days are gone. The old form will flash, but it will be outnumbered by what we saw last year. Brady and the Patriots will only get worse in the next two years.
And that's how it ends.
Brady would not only win another Super Bowl (and the Super Bowl MVP) at the end of the season, he would repeat that feat two years later.
2015
Calmed by Brady's victory at the Super Bowl XLIX – a vivid response to his detractors – the predictions of his decline have slowed over time in 2015.
The only memorable memory came from a strange source: Madden. The 2016 edition of the popular video game produced a strange prediction in a season simulation. Brady, according to the video game, would retire after the first season in franchise mode.
2016
In the summer of 2016, after having ample time (and a season off Super Bowl) to replenish their vision of a Brady in decline, critics came back. The most famous of them appeared in the form of Max Kellerman, the ESPN alternate, Skip Bayless.
During the morning show "First Take", Kellerman made a bold prediction – although ambiguous.
"Tom Brady is almost done," said Kellerman. "It could be his next game, in a year, but he will fall off a cliff. Tom Brady is going to be a fool in a short time. "
In October 2018, Kellerman "revised" his cliff forecast:
2017
Some catches appeared before the 2017 season, insisting that Brady declines quickly at one pointbut it was not until December that a real prediction of the imminent decline appeared.
Nick Wright of Fox Sports has compared the fast end of Peyton Manning's career to Brady's expected conclusion.
"In 2016, Tom Brady was as good as we have ever seen," Wright began. "This year, through ten games, was almost as good as last year. Last week we saw a little crack. Last night we were as poor as we have seen it play for a decade. When that happens, sometimes it happens like this and sometimes it happens during the season. "
"Last night was just as mediocre as we saw it playing in a decade."@getnickwright explain why this could be the beginning of the end for Tom Brady pic.twitter.com/aT2M5zO9yl
– First things first (@ FTFonFS1) December 12, 2017
Brady then brought back the Patriots to another Super Bowl appearance, amassing 1132 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs.
2018
Rob Parker, a frequent contributor to Fox Sports, started before the 2018 season:
"Tom Brady and Brett Favre have almost identical figures at age 40. Brett Favre has dropped to 41 years … It's the year when Tom Brady is 41 years old." – @ RobParkerFS1 pic.twitter.com/e6hI2yJGrm
– UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) August 17, 2018
And despite the fact that Brady guided New England to an early season of 7 to 3, he weighed after the Titans' loss Sunday, with another daring prognosis:
I tried to warn everyone that this was happening. Brady MAY launched his last TD for Pats. Ijs. We never know. https://t.co/j8LOHKYcM5
– Rob Parker (@ RobParkerFS1) November 11, 2018
While Parker's tweet was particularly speculative, he was not the only one to believe it after the loss of the 10th week in New England.
Mike Tanier of Bleacher Report presented a much more measured thesis.
"Especially, it's time to think of Brady as a cunning old quarterback, but more of one of the best in the league."
"The Patriotes offensive has become a succession of touch passes over the middle screens, complex and pass games tricks more and more desperate," wrote Tanier. "The Titans have understood, and other opponents are about to report on it as well."
Time will tell how Brady will react to the latest series of predictions. If we believe the story, there is reason to believe that he could still prove that it is an exaggeration.
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