Theresa May and her contract with Brexit are on the brink. Here is what we know.


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She put aside questions about the cabinet's defections. She asked a correspondent about the weather, only to ask him to resign. She discussed her blood sugar level.

Prime Minister Theresa May defended the issue of her draft treaty on Brexit that was the subject of much revenge during a radio show on Friday morning, stressing that the pact put an end to the free movement of people between Britain and the European Union and prevent a border from getting on the island of Ireland.

The agreement sets out Britain's costs for leaving the European Union and the trade rules likely to keep it linked to Europe (at least temporarily).

The case may not be dead. But it is certainly on the vital support.

Last Friday, all eyes turned to Michael Gove, an uncompromising Brexiteer in May's cabinet, who had rejected a bid the day before to become the next chief Brexit negotiator for Ms. May (two have resigned, including Dominic Raab Thursday).

But on Friday morning, Mr. Gove said he would stay in the office. The question of whether he intended to support Mrs May's agreement or to fight in the cabinet for a clearer break with Europe was a different question.

"I think it's absolutely essential that we focus on getting the right deal in the future," he told reporters.

Most speculation on Friday focused on whether May's conservative rivals in Parliament – those who think she is too keen on the UK's ties with Europe – would try to defeat her.

Let's see now why the prospects of the transaction are so weak.

The premier said Wednesday night that her cabinet of ministers had decided "collectively" to approve the deal. It is not said that nearly a third of the members of the government expressed doubts.

Thursday, several ministers had resigned. Mr. Raab was the first to leave the room, the same man appointed to negotiate the withdrawal.

The British pound lost about 2% against the dollar on Thursday because of the cabinet's resignation and the feeling that Ms. May will not be able to get the deal through Parliament.

It's the most volatile pound for two years, after the referendum on Brexit.

The prospect of a challenge to Ms. May's leadership and, possibly, a general election, also weighed on the pound. This could in turn lead to a Labor government led by Jeremy Corbyn, considered hostile to the market.

When Ms. May addressed the MPs Thursday morning, the only time she seemed to elicit loud applause was when she said the decision not to leave the Union European was one of the three tracks to follow for the country (the others being his business and leaving without agreement at all).

She obviously did not want to excite people about this perspective. Again and again, she ruled out holding a new referendum.

But Labor members have repeatedly stated that the political process was so interrupted that the only way forward was to give the British a chance to decide the exact conditions of Brexit (or not to go at all).

Even some conservative elected leaders would have prepared to support a second referendum if Ms. May's agreement was rejected.

The campaign to impose a second referendum has been going on for a long time, and some analysts say that the fact that an agreement is on the table reduces the likelihood of another vote. Again, pro-referendum rallies have attracted large crowds in recent days.

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