Once Republican bastions, Democrats see gains in traditionally conservative districts



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From Orange County, California, to Maine's countryside, via the Congressional District that houses one of President Donald Trump's golf courses, the Democratic majority who will preside over the 116th Congress will assert that the members of the country's regions were considered impenetrable bastions of conservatism and republican rule.

While hundreds of thousands of votes in California, the country's most populous state, have not yet been counted, Republicans are likely to have zero congressional representation in the county. Orange, once described by President Ronald Reagan as the place "where good Republicans are" dying. "

"Good Republicans", "Republicans Country Club", "Republican Chamber of Commerce", whatever their name, the GOP experienced substantial losses in areas that gave birth to many personalities and ideas that defined the conservative movement modern America. a significant block of voters backs down to the tone and tenor of Trump, while Democrats were determined to show their disapproval of the Commander-in-Chief.

"The mid-term results show a persistent loss of regional power by the GOP, which is becoming increasingly focused on the South and rural America," said Matthew Dowd, political analyst at ABC News. "This shows a continuing homogeneity of the GOP where the differences between GOP caucuses are becoming fewer and fewer and less similar to America as a whole." The moderate GOPs have virtually disappeared. It focuses geographically, but it focuses ideologically and demographically, which also means that the possibility of nominating a candidate from the coast or urban areas is reduced. "

PHOTO: OC California District ConventionABC News
OC California District Convention

According to ABC News projections, Democrats have already overthrown three seats in Orange County, while Democrat Harley Rouda has overthrown 15-term GOP representative Dana Rohrabacher as the open-seat race to succeed GOP representative Darrell Issa was won by Democrat Mike Levin.

PHOTO: Dana Rohrabacher, US Representative, addressing the media and supporters waiting for election results at the Irish Skosh Monahans Pub in Costa Mesa, California on November 6, 2018.Damian Dovarganes / AP
US Representative Dana Rohrabacher addresses media and supporters waiting for election results at the Irish Skosh Monahan Pub in Costa Mesa, California on November 6, 2018.

While postal ballots continue to be counted throughout the state, the Democratic candidate Gil Cisneros has taken a minimal lead in the 39th congressional district of the state, home to the Richard Presidential Library. Nixon and longtime GOP representative Ed Royce, who, like him, has decided to seek re-election in 2018.

Prior to Hillary Clinton's tight victory in Orange County in the 2016 elections, the region had not sided with a Democratic presidential candidate since 1936, when the President Franklin Roosevelt was elected for a second term.

Republicans also lost a seat partially in the traditionally conservative Central Valley, and another in southern California, where Rep. Steve Knight, the only Republican representing Los Angeles County in the House, was defeated by the democrat Katie Hill.

If the Republicans lose the two exceptional races in the state, they will occupy only eight of the 53 seats in the state, or 15%, in a state of nearly 40 million people.

PHOTO: Democrats cement their north-east domination 2018ABC News
Cemented Democrats Dominance Northeast 2018

Half of New England re-elected its Republican governors in 2018, but after People's Party representative Bruce Poliquin was defeated by Democrat Jared Golden in Maine's second congressional district on Thursday (in part because of the implementation of the vote by choice) exactly zero members of the US House representing the region.

In January 2019, Senator Susan Collins of Maine will be the only Republican member of the New England Congress.

PHOTO: Representative Bruce Poliquin speaks at a press conference on Tuesday, November 13, 2018 in Augusta, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty / AP
Representative Bruce Poliquin speaks at a press conference on Tuesday, November 13, 2018 in Augusta, Maine.

In New Jersey, a state that has elected and re-elected a Republican governor twice in this century, the Democrats overthrew four US House seats in 2018, leaving Representative Chris Smith as Republican member of the US delegation. Congress composed of 12 people. Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the seat of the outgoing Republican President of the House's powerful House Appropriations Committee, which occupied the state's 11th congressional district, sits in the hands of Republicans since 1985.

Republicans now hold only 6 out of 27 congressional seats after Rep. Dan Donovan was re-elected at Staten Island and representatives John Faso and Claudia Tenney were defeated by Democratic candidates in the north. State of New York.

The Democrats have overthrown their seats in the suburbs of Atlanta and Chicago, which once belonged to two former speakers of the Republican House, Newt Gingrich and Dennis Hastert, as well as the Houston suburb that was once occupied by the former president George HW Buisson.

"America was a country of regional parties within each party, while both parties are on the verge of losing this important representation, the path of the GOP is almost complete in a nationalized right-wing ideological party", said Dowd.

According to the current account of ABC News, the Democrats have a net gain of 35 seats in the House of the United States, with four races still undecided.

Candidates imported

The Congressional Congress Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced its work in California very early and often in this cycle, spending millions for the primary to ensure that its candidates go through the Jungle Primary system of the State, in which the first two candidates advance independently of the party.

It's a decision that, at the end of the day, seems to pay big dividends.

PHOTO: Democratic candidate Josh Harder listens to an election night on November 6, 2018 in Modesto, California.Alex Edelman / Getty Images
Democratic candidate Josh Harder listens to an election night on November 6, 2018 in Modesto, California.

"The DCCC reacted to this threat immediately in January 2018 by conducting a thorough analysis of the data to determine the strongest and weakest candidates – Democrats and Republicans – and by working to consolidate the Democratic primary fields," he said. DCCC Regional Press Secretary Andrew Godinich. memo on the elections recapitulating the Californian strategy of DCCC.

But beyond survival to a single primary system, the candidates who advanced and eventually scored to the Democrats some of their most prestigious victories in traditionally conservative fortresses largely represented themselves, not as supporters, but as pragmatists.

Rouda, a former Republican and real estate developer, called for a "return to the middle" throughout his campaign.

Sherrill, a former US Navy helicopter pilot, joins a crowd of veterans such as Chrissy Houlahan (Pennsylvania), Abigail Spanberger (Virginia) and Elissa Slotkin (Michigan), all of whom have won victories. to Republican seats in 2018, focusing on their background and issue. health care, a central part of the Democratic Party's messaging.

PHOTO: Mikie Sherrill, Democratic Democrat candidate, poses for a photo as she campaigns at the New Jersey Fair in Augusta, New Jersey, August 12, 2018.Eduardo Munoz / Reuters, FILE
US Democratic congressional candidate Mikie Sherrill poses for a photo as she campaigns at the New Jersey State Fair in Augusta, New Jersey on August 12, 2018.

In one of the most impactful television commercials of the cycle, Slotkin pointed to his mother's difficulties with the US health care system after the diagnosis of stage 4 ovarian cancer that ultimately cost her life, using images of his Republican opponent, Rep. Mike Bishop, celebrating the House GOP vote. Repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2017.

Golden, a state legislator and veteran of the US Navy, had run on a platform of social security protection and health insurance against an opponent who also voted in favor of the repeal of the ACA.

Blue hues with red states

While democratic victories in areas formerly considered conservative have attracted the most attention, at the macro level, the party also outperformed Donald Trump's GOP in the 2016 presidential election.

According to an analysis by ABC News, while Republicans won only 36 seats out of the 188 (19%) congressional won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, Democrats won 79 out of 32 seats (32%) in the states won by Trump. in 2016.

PHOTO: Percentage of seats won by partyABC News
Percentage of seats won by party

Democrats now also hold a majority of congressional seats in three states won by Trump: Arizona, Iowa and Michigan.

The new Democratic majority also includes representatives of traditional Republican states such as Kansas, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, all of whom supported Donald Trump's General Assembly and who entered this round with congressional delegations. republican.

But while these seats are likely to top the list of GOP goals in 2020, the party's ability to compete in areas such as Orange County and the Northeast, at least in federal elections, is seriously questionable.

Adam Kelsey, of ABC News, contributed to this report.

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