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John Hudson
National security reporter specializing in state department and diplomacy
The Trump administration is preparing to add Venezuela to the list of states sponsoring terrorism, which would be a dramatic escalation against the socialist government of Nicolás Maduro, according to US officials and internal emails from the government.
The list is reserved for governments accused of repeatedly providing "support for acts of international terrorism" and includes only Iran, North Korea, Sudan and Syria.
Republican lawmakers led by Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) Called for the designation, citing Venezuela's alleged links with Lebanese Hezbollah, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and other groups.
Republicans have long accused Venezuela of having links with terrorist organizations. But experts have downplayed the threat and strength of these connections. They warned that a designation that would not provide any concrete evidence could weaken the legitimacy of the US list, which, according to critics, is already being applied inconsistently.
"I guess it will be based on hearsay and sources of dubious integrity," said David Smilde, senior researcher at the Washington office for Latin America.
US officials declined to say whether a final decision had been made on the designation, but in recent days, the state department has asked different agencies, including the Ministry of Health and Human Services, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which is part of HHS and the US Agency for International Development.
A spokeswoman for the state department declined to comment on the pending decision, calling the investigations of the deliberations a "hypothetical question".
Rubio, an American of Cuban origin who organized a letter in late September calling for a terrorist designation, called for a tough American stance on Venezuela, a longtime supporter of the Castro regime in Cuba.
The Trump administration imposed sanctions on a number of people in Maduro's inner circle, accusing the first lady, the defense minister, the vice president and other allies of helping the socialist leader loot the riches of the country.
Officials have long said that other measures are under consideration, including a Venezuelan oil embargo. Despite the sharp fall in oil exports in recent years, Venezuela is the fourth largest foreign supplier to the United States, which remains the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude.
Adam Isacson, an expert from Latin America, said the terrorism designation could give new impetus to any oil boycott attempt. The Republicans of Texas and Louisiana, which are home to refineries for Venezuela's high-sulfur oil, have opposed such a boycott. "A terrorist sponsor designation will make their lives more complicated," said Isacson.
This measure could limit US aid to Venezuela and prohibit financial transactions while the country is under the shock of hyperinflation and extreme shortages of food products and medicines that have forced millions to flee to neighboring countries . Many Venezuelans blame Maduro for being responsible for widespread corruption in the government and for mismanaging the economy.
The country's health system has virtually broken down, allowing the re-emergence of previously eradicated diseases such as measles and diphtheria.
Deliberations over the possible move of the United States continued last week, when HHS officials were asked to assess the impact of a terrorism designation on "HHS or CDC programming". third-party funding in this country, "according to e-mails sent to HHS officials. .
Officials were asked to provide an answer within 24 hours, which a senior HHS attorney said was "probably impossible" because of the complexity of the problem, according to a manager who saw the emails. The person spoke under the guise of anonymity because she was not allowed to discuss the matter.
The e-mails did not specify the country, but a State Department official identified the country as Venezuela during a phone call last week with about 20 other agencies belonging to organizations such as HHS, CDC and USAID. State Department head Elizabeth Williams did not say when a decision on the terrorist designation would be made. "She just said that they are expecting to make a decision soon," recalled one official who participated in the call. Williams said that she could only share limited information about the unsecured phone line.
Experts are divided on the desirability of designating Venezuela as a sponsor of terrorism, with some arguing that this could be a useful push against Maduro's increasingly authoritarian regime, while others fear that the regime will play a role anti-U. S. courier or serve as a pretext for US military intervention.
President Trump, publicly and privately, spoke of the possibility of US military action in Venezuela, although his aides have repeatedly dissuaded him.
US officials have repeatedly met in secret with Venezuelan army officers, who claimed that they were planning a coup against Maduro, but the Trump government finally rejected their demands of 39; assistance.
Smilde is concerned that this designation "represents Venezuela as a threat to US national security in order to legitimize a military option."
"Many analysts in the US government and around it think either that a military intervention would be effective, or that a credible threat of force would bend the Venezuelan government," he said. .
But such threats "contribute to the unity and coherence of the Maduro government and undermine the organization and opposition of the opposition," he said. "Since President Trump first suggested a military option in August 2017, the Venezuelan opposition has collapsed."
Others expressed measured support for a tough line against Maduro, who came to power in 2013, imprisoned political opponents and assumed virtually all of the country's legislative and judicial powers.
"Many other governments could, in your opinion, be involved in more forms of terrorism that have much more impact," said William Brownsfield, former US ambassador to Venezuela and senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "But it's a justification for attacking other governments, not for not attacking Venezuela."
"It can be said that this is a positive step in terms of strengthening the pressure on Maduro's diet," he said.
Public health experts have warned of outbreaks of malaria and tuberculosis and an almost complete absence of antiretroviral therapy for people living with HIV in Venezuela. Increasing levels of malnutrition exacerbate the health crisis, making Venezuelans more vulnerable to infectious diseases and more prone to complications in case of illness.
The phone call between US officials included the growing epidemic of measles in Venezuela, a highly contagious respiratory infection caused by a virus that has spread to Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.
Brazil, which is dealing with more than 10,000 suspected infections in the state of Amazonas alone, plans to seal its border with Venezuela, according to the debate.
Programs likely to be affected by the terrorist designation include US support for global HIV / AIDS prevention, emergency vaccines and training of public health personnel, according to the debate. The bulk of US aid is funded by the Pan American Health Organization, a US agency.
Brownsfield said the president could compensate for some of the negative humanitarian effects of the designation through waivers.
"I believe that the law gives the president the authorities in charge to exempt or derogate from its provisions authorizing humanitarian aid such as food or medicine," he said.
The possible action against Venezuela surprised the participants in the appeal, he added. "It was the first time we heard about it," said the manager. "That does not make sense. And then, it was, "Oh, shit. What will it do for our ability to respond to the slow sanitary disaster that is occurring in Venezuela? "
Karen DeYoung and Greg Jaffe contributed to this report.
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