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Karen DeYoung
Associate Editor and Senior Correspondent for National Security
When President Trump talks about the US alliance with Saudi Arabia, he rarely mentions the role played by Saudi Arabia in achieving its stated goals in the Middle East: to silence Iran, forge an Israeli peace, Palestinian and defeat Islamist terrorism.
Instead, he mainly talks about how much money the Saudis spend here.
"They give us a lot of jobs. They bring us a lot of business, "Trump said Saturday, questioned over the CIA's findings that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto Saudi ruler, had ordered the assassination of the Saudi journalist based in the United States, Jamal Khashoggi.
"They have really been a spectacular ally in terms of jobs and economic development," he said, referring mainly to Saudi arms purchases. "You know, I'm president, I have to take a lot of things into consideration."
Trump may not focus on anti-terrorism cooperation and support for US strategic goals in the region – the basis of US-Saudi relations under his two immediate predecessors – but other members of his administration are clearly concerned.
Although its intention is to "hold accountable" those responsible for the death of Khashoggi, the administration must also protect "the extremely important strategic interests of the United States" with Riyadh, including the crucial role played by the government. Saudi Arabia to change the behavior of Iran, "the largest in the world". sponsor of terror, "said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo earlier this month.
While a growing bipartisan congressional coalition blames Mohammed for harsh punishment, some US officials, past and present, as well as experts in the region, say shared interests and deep roots will ensure the survival of critical ties.
[Trump says he won’t listen to Khashoggi ‘suffering tape’]
If the administration took "serious measures" against the Saudis, Riyadh "would feel the need to react, but they would like to do so in a way that will not degenerate," said a former senior US intelligence chief. anonymity on the sensitive subject. "Maybe they would not be as favorable in the oil market, or that they could buy a lot of weapons from the Russians or the Chinese … we could live with that."
Relations between intelligence services, said the former official, would also withstand the pressure, said the former official. "What happens in almost every case that I can think of, when a political relationship enters a difficult time, is that the intelligence relationship remains intact … it's too important for both countries . "
But others say that even if it resulted in a serious violation, there would be little to lose, both Saudi money and strategic cooperation are less important than they seem.
"On the peace process, the government wants the Saudis to deliver the Palestinians, by moral or moral pressure, or a combination of both," said Anne Patterson, deputy secretary to President Barack Obama in the Middle East. East and long career career diplomat in the region.
Jared Kushner, Trump 's son – in – law, White House peace plan adviser, has had a personal relationship with Mohammed in the hope of guiding the Arab world toward a new rapprochement with Israel, at the expense of peace. a viable Palestinian state. Trump has already taken steps in this direction, with its recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and the withdrawal of US aid to the Palestinians.
But other Arab leaders have long regarded these hopes as naïve and warned that any withdrawal of support for the Palestinians could provoke outrage among the population.
Although Muhammad's father, King Salman, can be content to let his son lead most of the issues, he has repeatedly expressed his views on the peace process.
"The Palestinian cause is our main concern and will remain so until our brothers, the Palestinian people, get all their legitimate rights, especially the creation of their independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital," Salman said. Monday in his annual speech to Saudi Arabia. Shura Council of Arabia.
Some Saudi actions in the region have undoubtedly undermined US objectives in the region.
The administration opposed last year when Muhammad, seeking to undermine the strength of Hezbollah backed by Iran in Lebanon, summoned Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to the kingdom, and then detained him as a prisoner. forced to publish a declaration of resignation from office. After Hariri's release and reintegration under international pressure, Hezbollah emerged stronger than ever.
Regarding Iran, which the Riyadh administration and leaders regard as the biggest threat in the region, the Saudis "want to keep our cloak while we fight," Patterson said. The United States protects the roads in the region, through which Saudi oil is exported. US air and sea forces fighting to defeat the Islamic State and weaken Bashar al-Assad's power in Syria are launched from US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar. A major US military presence in Saudi Arabia ended in 2003, when the Saudis asked the Americans to leave.
The administration plans to challenge Iran by reuniting the states of Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman in the Persian Gulf to form a new political and security alliance. here collapsed over the refusal of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to restore relations with Qatar. With Egypt and Bahrain, they broke off relations in May 2017, just days after Trump's visit to Riyadh. A summit that the administration hopes to hold between them to unite their efforts in Washington against Tehran has been repeatedly scheduled and postponed.
The way in which Saudi Arabia waged war in Yemen, during which Saudi air strikes caused thousands of civilian casualties and massive humanitarian disasters, diverted Iranian aid from the Yemeni Houthi rebels . US assistance in logistics and intelligence to the Saudi effort – led by Mohammed, who also serves as Defense Minister – has fueled public outrage and congress in the United States, a fire to which the Khashoggi's massacre only added energy.
Reports of recent progress in UN attempts to negotiate the end of the war have led some to believe that increased pressure from the United States would give Mohammed an excuse that he could seek to put in place. end to the conflict.
"I think the Saudis would come out tomorrow if the Iranians did," said the former senior intelligence official. "I actually think that the Saudis want the American pressure to come out of Yemen, so that they can somehow blame somebody else, that they are gone."
As for the money, a new report by William D. Hartung of the Center for International Policy, which is scheduled for Tuesday, says the economic boom resulting from the sale of weapons that Trump has touted is a pipe dream. Although Trump claimed to have signed $ 110 billion worth of arms purchases during his visit to the kingdom last year, much of it was negotiated under the Obama administration, while many claimed agreements were purely speculative. Final sales under the Trump administration have so far totaled $ 14.5 billion.
At the same time, "Saudi arms sales support tens of thousands of jobs in the United States", not the hundreds of thousands, if not the million, that Trump has various assertions, reported Hartung, a researcher specializing in traceability. arms trade.
Many jobs created by Saudi arms purchases by the Saudis will eventually find themselves in the realm, rather than in this country, he wrote. According to Mohammed's vision for 2030, all contracts must include 50% co-production clauses, companies such as Raytheon and Boeing establishing manufacturing facilities in Saudi Arabia.
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