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In the not-too-distant future, disasters will not happen one at a time. According to new research, we can expect a cascade of disasters, some gradual, others abrupt, all aggravated by climate change.
"Coping with these climate changes will be tantamount to fighting Mike Tyson, Schwarzenegger, Stallone, Jackie Chan – all at the same time." For example, Camillo Mora, lead author of the study published in Nature Climate Change on Monday, describes the many impacts that should hit us over the next few years. He adds, "I think we are well above our heads."
In total, researchers have identified 467 different ways in which society is already affected by increasingly extreme climatic events, and then explained how these threats are likely to worsen in the decades to come. If nothing is done to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they say that instead of facing one major risk at a time, people around the world may have to deal with three major risks. six at a time.
To reach this conclusion, the team of 23 scientists reviewed more than 3,000 peer-reviewed scientific papers. They examined the impact on human health, food supply, water, economy, infrastructure and security of many factors, including rising temperatures, drought, heat waves, forest fires, rainfall, floods, strong storms, the sea level rises and changes in land cover and ocean chemistry.
The University of Hawaii at Manoa, where several scientists are based, has described the work as "one of the most comprehensive assessments ever made on the impact of simultaneous onset. multiple climatic hazards on humanity, augmented by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases ".
Although most studies focus on one or two climate change-related threats, this paper brings together impacts and shows how threats are not isolated but rather compounded.
"If we take into account only the most direct threats of climate change, such as heat waves or violent storms, we will inevitably be blinded by even larger threats that, combined, may have even wider societal impacts. " says Jonathan Patz, co-author, professor and director of the Global Health Institute at the University of Wisconsin.
According to Mora, "the notion that these dangers occur simultaneously is not very far, it is already there."
As all regions of the globe face growing threats, California and Florida are two perfect examples near home.
In humid areas like Florida, climate change is creating more heat waves, heavy showers, heavier hurricanes rising sea level, leading to more heat-related health problems, damage to wind and water infrastructure, quality proliferation of algae and economic losses due to damage and reduced production.
In drier regions like California, the combination of heat, drought and Forest fires threaten lives and health, water resources, food production and infrastructure. In recent years, increased heat and drought have contributed to fuel some of the largest fires in recent history.
Perhaps the most obvious health impacts of California fires are the direct effects of breathe tiny particles of smoke in the air. Prolonged exposure can lead to increased lung and heart disease as these particles eventually end up in the respiratory and circulatory systems.
Ms. Madeleine Thomson studies health and climate at the International Institute for Climate Research and Society of Columbia University. She says that while the direct impacts of climate change on health are obvious, indirect effects can have even greater consequences for society.
"Take, for example, California fires," says Thomson. "The health risks associated with smoke inhalation are widespread and could have long-term consequences – but the loss of homes and livelihoods could have a greater impact on the health of people in a society." where access to health care depends so much on work-based health insurance. "
It's easy to see how climate change is a complex problem. The heat leads to drought which contributes to fuel larger fires. Fires cause illness directly through smoke inhalation, but also through loss of shelter and livelihood, resulting in loss of insurance and / or inability to pay for care medical. The more this type of compound or domino effect occurs, the greater the cumulative harm caused to the company is important.
As heat-trapping greenhouse gases continue to increase, threats will multiply over the next few decades. Mora and her team have developed an interactive tool for mapping global climate change risks based on varying degrees of greenhouse gas concentrations.
The research project showed that "… the projected exposure to multiple climate hazards will be very similar between rich and poor countries, but variations in adaptive capacity will likely have different types of impacts. For example, greater economic losses for developed countries and increased production losses – life for developing countries.
While some of these impacts already seem inevitable, other longer-term and more extreme consequences could still be avoided if measures were taken to significantly reduce greenhouse gases, the scientists said.
Michael Mann is an Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Penn State University and one of the world leaders in the field of climate change science. He did not participate in the study, but according to him, "This new research provides rigorous quantitative support to a point that we have been stressing for some time: the costs of inaction far exceed the costs of measures taken to combat climate change ".
Although the worst research scenarios are alarming, Mann insists that the future is still in our hands: "We can always reduce future damage and suffering if we act quickly and dramatically to reduce carbon emissions. "
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