Khashoggi murder would prompt Saudi royals to turn against Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

LONDON (Reuters) – In the midst of an international outcry over the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, members of the Saudi ruling family are mobilizing to prevent Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman from becoming king, three sources said. close to the royal court.

Dozens of princes and cousins ​​belonging to powerful branches of the Al Saud family want to see a change in the estate but do not want to do anything until King Salman, the father of the 82-year-old Crown Prince, is still alive. life, said these sources. They recognize that it is unlikely that the king will turn against his favorite son, nicknamed MbS in the West.

On the contrary, they discuss the possibility with other members of the family that after the death of the king, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, 76 years old, younger brother of King Salman and uncle of the crown prince, take the throne, according to the sources.

Prince Ahmed, Salman's only own brother, would have the support of family members, the security apparatus and some Western powers, said one of Saudi sources.

Prince Ahmed returned to Riyadh in October after two and a half months abroad. During his trip, he appeared to criticize the Saudi leaders while responding to protesters in front of a London residence chanting the fall of the Al Saud dynasty. He was one of only three members of the Allegiance Council, made up of the oldest members of the ruling family, who opposed MbS becoming the Crown Prince in 2017, two Saudi sources told Reuters. time.

Neither Prince Ahmed nor his representatives could be reached for comment. Officials in Riyadh did not immediately respond to Reuters' inquiries regarding their estate problems.

Saud's house is made up of hundreds of princes. Unlike typical European monarchies, there is no automatic succession from father to eldest son. Instead, the tribal traditions of the kingdom dictate that the king and the eldest members of the family of each branch choose the heir they deem most fit to lead.

Senior US officials have told Saudi advisers in recent weeks that they would support Prince Ahmed, deputy minister of the interior for nearly 40 years, as a potential successor, according to Saudi sources having direct knowledge of the consultations.

These Saudi sources said they were convinced that Prince Ahmed would not change or reverse the social or economic reforms promulgated by MbS, honor the military purchase contracts in force, and restore the unity of the family.

A senior US official said the White House was not in a hurry to distance himself from the Crown Prince despite the pressure from lawmakers and the CIA's assessment that MbS would have ordered the assassination of Khashoggi, although that may change once Trump gets a definitive report on the killing from the intelligence services. .

The official also said that the White House considered it remarkable that King Salman appeared to be standing by his son in a speech on Monday in Riyadh and made no direct reference to the killing of Khashoggi, other than to praise him. the Saudi prosecutor.

President Donald Trump on Saturday called for the CIA's assessment that MbS had ordered the assassination of Khashoggi "very premature" but "possible," and announced that he would receive a full report on the Case on Tuesday. A White House official referred these remarks to Reuters and had "nothing else to add for the moment".

Saudi sources said the US authorities had cooled MbS, not only because of its alleged role in killing Khashoggi. They are also worried because the Crown Prince has recently urged the Saudi Defense Ministry to explore other sources of arms supplies from Russia, the sources said.

In a letter dated May 15 and seen by Reuters, the Crown Prince asked the Ministry of Defense "to focus on the purchase of weapons and weapon systems in the most pressing areas" and to obtain training on them, including the Russian S-400 ground-air system. missile system.

Neither the Russian Ministry of Defense nor officials in Riyadh immediately responded to Reuters' requests for comment.

The brutal murder of Khashoggi, a prominent critic of the Crown Prince, in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul last month, has sparked worldwide condemnation, including many politicians and officials in the United States, a key ally of the Saudi Arabia. The CIA thinks the Crown Prince has ordered the killing, according to US sources familiar with the assessment.

The Saudi prosecutor said the crown prince knew nothing about the murder.

The international turmoil has put pressure on an already divided royal court over the swift accession to power of 33-year-old Prince Mohammed. Since his rise, the prince enjoys popular support through far-reaching social and economic reforms, including lifting the ban on driving women and opening cinemas in the conservative realm .

His reforms were accompanied by a crackdown on dissent, a purge of royal leaders and businessmen accused of corruption and a costly war in Yemen.

It has also marginalized senior members of the royal family and consolidated the control of Saudi security and intelligence agencies.

He first ousted the powerful Crown Prince and Interior Minister Mohammed Bin Nayef (MbN), 59, in June 2017. He then removed from office Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, an elderly man. 65 years old, son of the late King Abdullah, at the head of the National Guard. as part of an anti-corruption campaign.

Thirty other princes were also arrested, abused, humiliated and stripped of their fortune, even as MbS splashed up the palaces on a 500 million dollar yacht and set a new record in the international market. art with the purchase of a painting by an Italian Renaissance engineer. and the painter Leonardo Da Vinci.

All of Saud's house has emerged weakened accordingly.

According to a well-placed Saudi source, many senior family princes believe that a change in the line of succession "would not cause any resistance from the security or intelligence organizations that he controls" because their loyalty to the extended family.

"They (the security apparatus) will follow any consensus reached by the family."

Officials in Riyadh did not respond to a request for comment.

The United States, a key ally in terms of economy and security, is likely to play a key role in shaping the situation in Saudi Arabia, Saudi sources and diplomats said.

Trump and his son-in-law and councilor Jared Kushner have cultivated deep personal relationships with the Crown Prince. A Saudi official said Mr MbS thought he still had his support and was ready to "roll some heads to appease the United States".

Trump and senior administration officials said that Saudi officials should be held accountable for any involvement in Khashoggi's death and imposed sanctions on 17 Saudis for their alleged role – including one of them. closest associates of MbS.

US lawmakers in the meantime are demanding legislation punishing Riyadh for the murder, and Republican and Democratic senators have urged Trump to be tough on the Crown Prince.

King Salman, 82, is aware of the consequences of a major conflict with the United States and the possibility that Congress is attempting to freeze Saudi assets.

Those who met the king recently said that he seemed to deny the role of MbS in what had happened, believing that there was a plot against the kingdom. But they added that he seemed heavy and worried.

When the king dies or is no longer able to govern, the 34-member Allegory Council, representing each lineage of the ruling family to legitimize succession decisions, would not automatically declare MbS as the new king.

Even as crown prince, MbS would still need the council to ratify his ascent, said one of the three Saudi sources. While the council accepted King Salman's wish to become the MbS's crown prince, he would not necessarily accept that MbS would become king on his father's death, especially as he sought to marginalize council members.

Officials in Riyadh did not respond to a request for comment.

Saudi sources say the MbS has destroyed the institutional pillars of nearly a century of Al Saud's reign: the family, clerics, tribes and merchant families. They say that this is perceived inside the family as destabilizing.

Despite the controversy surrounding the killing of Khashoggi, MbS is still pursuing its program.

Some insiders believe that he has built in Sharma, on the Neom City development site, a new isolated Red Sea palace, located in Sharma. A record of one year for a cost of $ 2 billion, it served as a golden cage in retirement.

The site is isolated, the nearest town of Tabouk being more than 100 km away. Residence in this country would keep the king out of most state affairs, said one of the royal family's close sources.

Officials in Riyadh did not respond to a request for comment.