Existing Home Sales Record First Increase in Six Months in October

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Numbers: Existing home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.22 million euros in October, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. This rose 1.4% for the month, marking the first monthly increase in six months.

What happened: Previously acquired home sales have finally increased, exceeding MarketWatch's consensus forecast of 5.18 million sales. Nevertheless, the October sales rate was 5.1% lower than the previous year. The median selling price for October is set at $ 255,400, up 3.8% from last year, one of the smallest annual increases since then. long time.

Houses remained on the market for an average of 33 days in October and first-time buyers accounted for 31% of all purchases, which remains below the long-term average of 40%.

Sales in the Northeast increased 1.5%, while sales in the South increased 1.9%. In the West, sales jumped 2.8%. The Midwest was the only region to retreat in October, declining 0.8%.

Big picture: At the current pace of sales, it would take 4.3 months to exhaust the available supply, which is lower than the 4.4 months of unsold inventories recorded last month, but still above the conditions that probably led many buyers to give up and leave the market. market at the end of last year and early 2018.

In some cases, the long-term average considered as a sign of a "balanced" market is six months of inventory; in February, there were 3.4 months of unsold homes. With such a demand, it is not clear that the slightest reduction in the contraction in supply is facing a massive wave of purchases that could even push prices to a new acceleration.

Read also: This chart shows the haves and have-nots in the housing market, and the situation is getting worse

What they say: "Do not get me wrong, I'm grateful for the positive economic data, but it would not bother me to help again," said Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, although the details of the October report were best, they were still not excellent, Lee noted.

"Prices are not rising as fast as before, but they are rising (~ 4% yoy) and, combined with rising interest rates, are detracting from affordability."

John Campbell, an analyst at Stephens, who has been a great bull in housing, like Realogy

RLGY, + 3.12%

and Zillow

ZG, + 1.83%

, wrote the following Wednesday:

"While market trends remain contentious, we believe that the October clip for existing home sales represents a stabilization of trends and, perhaps, offers some hope for the beginning of a modest recovery. We remain optimistic for many of our housing-related actions as we believe that estimates have been restored under current conditions and that valuations remain very attractive relative to historical averages. "

Market reaction: The 10-year US Treasury Bill

TMUBMUSD10Y, + 0.33%

has rallied over the past week, offering a brief respite to anyone applying for a mortgage. But if the global stock markets continue to fall apart, it risks undermining American confidence and making them less likely to make a large purchase like a home. The Dow Jones Industrial Average

DJIA, + 0.64%

has been down about 1% since the beginning of the year, but this measure masks a lot of volatility.

Look also: As the real estate market stagnates, US homeowners stay on the longest course