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Globally, demographics are changing as countries become more affluent, which means that as populations age and become more sedentary, noncommunicable diseases are increasing.
Type 2 diabetes occurs when the body can no longer produce enough insulin or does not respond, and may be the result of inactivity, obesity, or age, among other factors. It is already prevalent in rich countries and will become increasingly heavy in low- and middle-income countries as they develop. At present, more than 405 million people worldwide have type 2 diabetes and, according to experts, this number will increase to more than 510 million by 2030.
In some cases, people with type 2 diabetes need insulin to manage their disease and avoid complications such as damage to the heart, kidneys, eyes and nervous system. These complications can lead to blindness, amputations or death. Already, already 33 million people with type 2 diabetes who need insulin to manage their disease can not get it. By 2030, this number will reach 41 million people (paywall) – more than half of the expected type 2 diabetes cases, announced Wednesday (November 20) a research team led by the University of Stanford.
As insulin demand increases by 20% over the next 13 years, the risk that many people with type 2 diabetes develop these complications also increases if other drugs can not maintain their blood glucose levels to a satisfactory level . If insulin was readily available for all people with type 2 diabetes who needed it and their blood glucose was kept within a normal range, the authors estimate that there would be less than 330,000 years of life corrected for disability – a measure to compare a healthy life. to a riddled with complications.
For their work, the team used data from the International Diabetes Federation and more than a dozen other studies to estimate the projected number of cases of type 2 diabetes in more than 220 countries, and how many they would require insulin for management.
They found that China, India and the United States are currently recording the three highest rates of type 2 diabetes and will likely continue to do so by 2030. Although the insulin shortage is the More important in Asia, African countries have insufficient access to insulin already and will have the largest percentage of people living without it in the future.
"These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are very inadequate compared to projected needs, particularly in Africa and Asia," Sanjay Basu, a physician and epidemiologist at the Guardian, told the Guardian. 39, Stanford University.
Cost is the main obstacle to access to insulin. In the United States, the price of insulin has tripled between 2002 and 2013; the steady rise in costs has led to a federal inquiry. There are no generics available for insulin, 99% of which are manufactured by pharmaceutical companies Eli Lilly, Sanofi and Novo Nordisk. Prescriptions can cost more than $ 1,000. In one study, nearly 25% of people who needed insulin said they were rationing their insulin dangerously in an attempt to save money.
The authors note that these projections may not last in time. Perhaps thanks to lifestyle changes, early medical intervention or better management of blood glucose levels through other medications, fewer people would need insulin. But for the moment, projections of insulin demand suggest that unless countries determine how to make insulin more easily accessible to affected populations, through measures such as the improvement of Access to insurance, requiring insurance companies to pay more or obliging pharmaceutical companies to stabilize – Millions of others will go untreated for their type 2 diabetes.
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