[ad_1]
Taipei, Taiwan – China and its growing pressure campaign are at the center of concerns as Taiwan holds mayoral and other local officials' elections on Saturday, as part of what is partly seen as a referendum on the president's leaning policy for the country. independence, Tsai Ing-wen.
Conducted by the government two years ago, the opposition nationalists hope to regain their territory by betting on their corporate image and on a more accommodating line with Beijing, which hates Tsai for refusing to support its position that autonomous island democracy is an autonomous democracy. part of the Chinese nation.
The China factor and the potential impact on the upcoming presidential election give more weight to the polls, said Alexander Huang, professor of strategic studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan.
"It's more important than the usual local elections," Huang said. "Confidence has been disrupted by the general environment and the difficult relations with the continent."
Key races include town halls in the capital, Taipei, and Kaohsiung port in the south, where nationalists and the ruling Progressive Democratic Party are competing for votes. Elections are described as the largest ever held on the island, with 23 million voters, and more than 19,000 voters voted for more than 11,000 local representatives.
Economic growth, employment and pension reforms are also key issues, but if local issues can be of paramount importance to voters, the results will be presented at the national level by the two main parties as a "control". of the Tsai administration's status, "said Derek Grossman. studies Taiwan-China relations at RAND Corporation.
Since his election in 2016, Tsai has marched on relations with China, preserving the de facto independent status of Taiwan that was supported by the vast majority of Taiwanese, while avoiding calls from the most radical elements of his party to demand formal separation party. continent, from which it separated in the middle of the civil war in 1949.
But she also stressed the importance of Taiwan's sovereignty, rejected the "One China" principle of Beijing and sought to strengthen relations with the United States and other countries, equally skeptical about the motives behind China while working to diversify the economy of the island, far from the Chinese market.
While relations between Washington and Beijing are at their lowest for years, Taiwan enjoys greater US diplomatic and military assistance, despite the absence of official diplomatic relations broken in 1979 when the United States transferred its recognition to China.
Beijing's response has been to sever contacts with its administration, reduce the number of Chinese tourists visiting, and strengthen the island's diplomatic isolation by moving away from multinational forums and chasing the decreasing number of diplomatic allies, reduced to 17 today.
The authoritarian Chinese leader Xi Jinping – who said that "unification" with Taiwan could not be deferred indefinitely – also intensified the maneuvers of military intimidation with war games and air training near the airport. 39 in order to promote the threat of Beijing to control it by force if necessary. The Taiwanese authorities also warned that Beijing was trying to convince voters to spread an online misinformation similar to that of Russia in the US elections.
The impact of these measures on Taiwanese voters is difficult to assess and, by law, no opinion poll can be published within 10 days of the elections.
However, Timothy Rich, an expert in Taiwanese electoral politics at Western Kentucky University, says his research on Taiwan's diplomatic relations and public opinion shows that, rather than blaming Tsai, voters are angry at Beijing for having limited Taiwan's international leeway.
However, there is no doubt that Beijing hopes that the diplomatic, economic and military pressure points will undermine and end up sabotaging the support given to Tsai, who is also the party's president and is due to be re-elected in 2020.
"If the PDP loses ground, it will serve as confirmation to Beijing that its strategy of undermining the PDP and Tsai is working (…) and that it will therefore probably go ahead," Grossman said. .
Nevertheless, the elections are likely to be hard work for the nationalists, who led the island for half a century after Chiang Kai-shek's transfer to power after Mao Zedong's communist victory in Beijing. After losing both the presidency and their legislative majority, they fought against candidates who were both able to overthrow their pro-Chinese supporters and to convince young Taiwanese increasingly turned to the PDP.
The best chance of the nationalists seems to be in the mayoral race of Kaohsiung, a fortress of the DPP that seems to be in play this year.
"What I hope is that the PDP will lose some key races, but that will not change anything if the PDP does not succeed very badly in the south," said Rich, adding that losing Kaohsiung would be " symbolically problematic ".
A result that would lead to Tsai's resignation from the party presidency could also energize the nationalists and create problems for the PDP in the 2020 elections, he said.
Despite a relatively healthy growth estimated at around 2.6% this year, many Taiwanese say fear the impact of policies that continue to undermine China.
"The lack of trust in the Taiwan Strait and the lack of communication between the two governments has made Taiwan's trading environment more difficult," said Huang.
Office performance, especially on the economy, is the most important factor for Taipei voter, Giyun Lihang.
"Elected officials need to do the right thing so that people earn more, unlike those where people have difficulties," said Giyun.
Voters will also vote in 10 referendums, including one on amending the civil code to include same-sex marriage – legalized last year – and on meeting the commitment to ban nuclear energy by 2025.
And in a highly symbolic but potentially powerful referendum, voters will be asked if they would like to participate in future international sporting events, including the 2020 Tokyo Olympics as "Taiwan" instead of "." Chinese Taipei "- they name that the island should be used by China insistence.
Although the IOC has already ruled out any change and warned that Taiwan may even lose its accreditation, many see the vote as a test of support for independence and a way to boost the base of the DPP.
China has already responded. Earlier this year, the Asian Olympic Committee was forced to vote to withdraw the right of Taichung City, in central Taiwan, to hold a youth competition scheduled for next year.
___
Bodeen reported from Beijing.
