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In this photo of November 20, 2018, Chen Chi-mai, mayoral candidate of the Democratic Progressive Democratic Party Kaohsiung, reacts alongside his supporters during a demonstration in Kaohsiung, central Taiwan. China and its growing pressure campaign are at the center of concerns as Taiwan holds mayoral and other local officials' elections on Saturday, as part of what is partly seen as a referendum on the president's leaning policy for the country. independence, Tsai Ing-wen. (AP Photo) The Associated Press
By CHRISTOPHER BODEEN and JOHNSON LAI, Associated Press
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) – China's pressure campaign is imminent as Taiwan holds local elections on Saturday, which is partly seen as a referendum on the president's policy of leaning for independence, Tsai Ing. wen.
Two years ago, the opposition nationalists hoped to regain the territory, relying on their favorable corporate image and on a more accommodating line with Beijing, deplores Tsai 's refusal to subscribe to the idea that autonomous island democracy is an autonomous democracy. part of the Chinese nation.
The China factor and the potential impact on the upcoming presidential election give more weight to the polls, said Alexander Huang, professor of strategic studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan.
"It's more important than the usual local elections," Huang said. "Confidence has been disrupted by the general environment and the difficult relations with the continent."
Key races include town halls in the capital, Taipei, and the southern port of Kaohsiung, where nationalists and the ruling Progressive Democratic Party struggle to win votes alongside independent candidates and smaller parties. . Elections are described as the largest ever held on the island, with 23 million voters, and more than 19,000 voters voted for more than 11,000 local representatives.
Economic growth, employment and pension reforms are also major issues, but if local concerns may be of paramount importance to voters, the results will be presented at the national level by the two main parties as a "control". of the Tsai administration's status, "said Derek Grossman. studies Taiwan-China relations at RAND Corporation.
Since his election in 2016, Tsai has marched on relations with China, preserving the de facto independent status of Taiwan that was supported by the vast majority of Taiwanese, while avoiding calls from the most radical elements of his party to demand formal separation party. continent, from which it separated in the middle of the civil war in 1949.
But she also stressed the importance of Taiwan's sovereignty, rejected the "One China" principle of Beijing and sought to strengthen relations with the United States and other countries, equally skeptical about the reasons for the China. She has also worked to diversify the island's economy away from the Chinese market by bringing businesses back home and encouraging investment in Southeast Asia and elsewhere.
While relations between Washington and Beijing are at their lowest level in years, Taiwan enjoys greater diplomatic and military assistance from the United States. These intervene despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations broken in 1979 when the United States transferred its recognition to China.
Beijing's response has been to sever contacts with its administration, reduce the number of Chinese tourists and strengthen the island's diplomatic isolation away from multinational forums and by driving out the numbers. descending diplomatic allies, reduced to 17 today.
The authoritarian Chinese leader Xi Jinping – who said that "unification" with Taiwan could not be postponed indefinitely – also intensified the maneuvers of military intimidation with war games and air training near the The island, all aiming to make known the threat of Beijing to control it. by force if necessary. The Taiwanese authorities also warned that Beijing was trying to convince voters to spread misinformation online similar to Russia's intervention in the US elections.
The impact of these measures on Taiwanese voters is difficult to assess and, by law, no opinion poll can be published within 10 days of the elections.
However, Timothy Rich, an expert in Taiwanese electoral politics at Western Kentucky University, says his research on Taiwan's diplomatic relations and public opinion shows that, rather than blaming Tsai, voters are angry at Beijing for having limited Taiwan's international leeway.
However, there is no doubt that Beijing hopes that diplomatic, economic and military pressure will erode support for Tsai, who is also the party's president and is due to be re-elected in 2020.
"If the PDP loses ground, it will serve as confirmation to Beijing that its strategy of undermining the PDP and Tsai is working (…) and that it will therefore probably go ahead," Grossman said. .
Nevertheless, the campaign was hard work for the nationalists, who led the island for half a century after Chiang Kai-shek transferred his government here following Mao Zedong's communist victory in China. After losing both the presidency and their legislative majority, they struggled to find candidates capable of both bailing out pro-Chinese supporters and convincing Taiwanese young people to turn increasingly to the PDP.
The best chance of the nationalists seems to be in the mayoral race of Kaohsiung, a fortress of the DPP that seems to be in play this year.
"What I hope is that the PDP will lose some key races, but that will not change anything if the PDP does not succeed very badly in the south," said Rich, adding that losing Kaohsiung would be " symbolically problematic ".
A result that would lead to Tsai's resignation from the party presidency could also energize the nationalists and create problems for the PDP in the 2020 elections, he said.
Despite a relatively healthy growth estimated at around 2.6% this year, many Taiwanese say fear the impact of policies that continue to undermine China.
"The lack of trust in the Taiwan Strait and the lack of communication between the two governments has made Taiwan's trading environment more difficult," said Huang.
Office performance, especially on the economy, is the most important factor for Taipei voter, Giyun Lihang.
"Elected officials need to do the right thing so that people earn more, unlike those where people have difficulties," said Giyun.
Violence and vote-buying have been factors in previous local elections, and the Criminal Investigation Bureau said Thursday that it had questioned a man who allegedly called for the assassination of Kaohsiung's mayoral candidate, Han Kuo-yu.
Voters will also vote in 10 referendums, including one on amending the civil code to include same-sex marriage – legalized last year – and on meeting the commitment to ban nuclear energy by 2025.
And in a highly symbolic but potentially powerful referendum, voters will be asked if they would like to participate in future international sporting events, including the 2020 Tokyo Olympics as "Taiwan" instead of "." Chinese Taipei "- they name that the island should be used by China insistence.
Although the IOC has already ruled out any change and warned that Taiwan may even lose its accreditation, many see the vote as a test of support for independence and a way to boost the base of the DPP.
China has already responded. Earlier this year, the Asian Olympic Committee was forced to vote to withdraw the right of Taichung City, in central Taiwan, to hold a youth competition scheduled for next year.
Bodeen reported from Beijing.
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