The G20, wrought in a crisis, faces an important test next week: Donald Trump

BERLIN / BEIJING / BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – When the G20 leaders met for the first time in 2008, their mission was desperate: to save the global economy from the worst financial crisis of the last 70 years. They succeeded.

Ten years later, this image of unity in the face of economic calamity is in the rearview mirror. Leaders of the G20 meeting of the industrialized countries in Argentina next week are likely to have trouble agreeing on a joint declaration on two of the world's biggest and most difficult issues – trade and climate change.

Officials from European and Asian capitals who participated in the preparation of the meeting have been cautiously optimistic about the release of a communiqué after the two-day meeting that will end on 1 December.

But many said that it would probably be diluted to try to get approval from US President Donald Trump, a declared skeptic of climate change caused by the man who adopted a protectionist trade policy and a more isolationist foreign policy.

Recent history shows that those who write the release face a daunting challenge when they start their work in Buenos Aires on Monday.

Last weekend, officials from countries participating in a major summit in the Asia-Pacific region failed to agree on a joint communiqué for the first time, the United States' Being confronted with China about trade and security.

In May, Trump rejected a statement from fellow G7 industrialized economy leaders after a tense meeting ending in acrimony, still on tariffs and trade.

"This is a club even more difficult to manage than the G7," said a French diplomatic source. "Let's face it, the problems are difficult, the discussions have been difficult since last year, and this will be the case again this year, perhaps even more difficult."

This will be the first time the leaders will meet since Trump imposed a $ 250 billion tariff on Chinese imports to force Beijing to make concessions on better access to Chinese markets, forced technology transfer and theft of intellectual property.

China reacted by imposing import duties on US products.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned this week that an escalation of the trade war – the US tariff rate of $ 200 billion on Chinese products is expected to fall by 10% to 25% on January 1 – would hinder global economic growth.

Officials of some G20 countries, anxious to quickly end the US-China trade war, hope but are not convinced that a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 could lead to a partial cease-fire.

But in the United States and China, pessimism reigns.

In the White House, it is difficult to know how much Trump is willing to put pressure on Xi during their talks on trade and other conflicts while the president sorts the sometimes contradictory opinions of his own. key contributors, said a senior Trump official.

"The expectations (on the meeting) are low. But maintaining the personal relationship is a top priority, "said a US official, referring to Trump and Xi, who have sought to establish close working relationships despite tensions between their countries, the two largest economies in the world.

China's main goal at the G20 is to have the United States abstain from raising tariffs in January, Chinese economists and academics said. But Xi would not be intimidated to make a bad deal.

"Even if they reach a small agreement, Chinese and American leaders can not reach a fundamental agreement. There would be no cease-fire in the trade war, "said Shi Yinhong, chief of the Center for American. Studies at Renmin University, a university in Beijing, who advised the Chinese government on diplomacy.

Trump said Thursday that he was well prepared for his meeting with Xi.

"It's not like," Oh, I'm going to sit down and study. "I know all the ingredients, I know all the statistics, I know it better than anyone knows, and my guts have always been right, and we are doing very well, and I will tell you that China is keen to reach an agreement."

Trump will also meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders have not met face to face since a bilateral summit held in Helsinki in Helsinki in July, which prompted Trump's critics to accuse him of preparing for the Kremlin.

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G20 leaders are also expected to discuss reform of the World Trade Organization, but officials said it was unlikely that an agreement would be reached.

The United States is increasingly skeptical about the WTO's ability to resolve international trade disputes. The European Union is also pushing to reform this body in order to make it more capable of solving modern trade problems.

European countries want the final communiqué to refer to the fight against climate change, said a senior official of the European Union. Trump announced plans to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement, questioning the scientific basis of the deal.

Despite disagreements over key issues and the growing skepticism of the United States over the usefulness of multilateral agencies, G20 members insist that the forum remains an important opportunity for world leaders to meet and talk to each other. exchange views on urgent issues.

"Its very existence helps us come together quickly and discuss key issues globally when needed," said a senior G20 official in Asia.

A senior German official involved in the preparations for the G20 said that Germany remained committed to the G20 as a multilateral and bilateral forum despite current tensions.

"Sometimes you have to be patient. Either way, there is no choice but to try to work together, "said the manager.