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Climate change is already hurting American lives and "substantial damage" will occur as global temperatures threaten to exceed internationally agreed limits, a major US government report said.
The influence of climate change is being felt in the United States with an increase in catastrophic forest fires in the west, floods on the east coast, soil losses in the central west and coastal erosion in Alaska, a project of the US states of climate assessment.
The outline notes that "the impacts of climate change are intensifying across the country and that climate-related threats to the physical, social and economic well-being of Americans are increasing." Climate change risks "will continue to grow without further action," he adds.
The quadrennial report, which gathers the work of 13 federal agencies, is due to be released by the Trump administration on Friday, in the aftermath of Thanksgiving. Scientists who worked on the report said their research had not been diluted, but that the publication was supposed to bury the results during the holiday season.
Global temperatures could be limited to 2 ° C from pre-industrial levels if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced, but "without significant reductions, global average annual temperatures could increase by 9 ° C (5). ° C) or more by the end of the century, "says a previously published chapter.
Even warming to 2 ° C will likely have important consequences for societies, as indicated by the recent IPCC report. Heating the planet far beyond that would create a "totally different world," said Michael Oppenheimer, a climatologist at Princeton University. "It would be indescribable, it would upset the world in terms of climate. There would be nothing like it in the history of civilization. "
Oppenheimer, as well as many scientists, have said that warming to about 3 ° C is more likely given the rise in renewable energy and expected emissions reductions in the future. "It's more a matter of economics, politics and technology," said one report author, who wanted to remain anonymous. "It's hard to say what we're on the right track at the moment."
The draft report warns that the current response is insufficient to counter the worst impacts, saying that "neither global efforts to mitigate the causes of climate change nor regional efforts to adapt to impacts are scales necessary to avoid substantial damage to the United States. economy, the environment and human health and well-being in the coming decades. "
Another author of the report said: "Climate change is weighing heavily on the dice, it will affect our water, our food and our ecosystems. This report is important because it shows that it is already happening here, not on distant islands or poles. "
Included in the dozens of chapters of the interim report –
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The summary states that "the climate of the earth is now changing more rapidly than at any point in the history of modern civilization, mainly because of human activities. The effects of global climate change are already being felt in the United States and are expected to intensify in the future. "
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The fisheries, tourism, human health and public safety sectors are "transformed, degraded or lost in part because of the impacts of climate change, in particular sea-level rise and climate change. increased number of extreme weather events ".
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The fires burned at least 3.7 million US acres in the last three years, from 2000 to 2016. "More frequent and larger forest fires associated with an increasing development of the forest interface cities, presage increasing risks for property and human life, "says the report. States.
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In the United States, more than 100 million people live in areas with poor air quality and climate change will "worsen existing levels of air pollution". The increase in smoke from forest fires may worsen respiratory and cardiovascular problems, while the prevalence of asthma and hay fever should also increase.
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Major groundwater supplies have been declining over the past century and this decline has accelerated since 2001. "Changes in water quantity and quality are evident across the country," the report says.
The Congress's mandate is to compile the latest research on climate change. The latest report was released in 2014. Donald Trump has since announced that the United States would pull out of the Paris climate deal, while his administration was striving to dismantle all major policies. designed to reduce emissions.
The report comes as California is plagued by its deadliest fire ever, the so-called Camp fire, which razed the city of Paradise. More than 80 people died and tens of thousands of people had to flee the fire, which occurred at the same time as a smaller fire further south near Los Angeles.
Trump downplayed the claims of scientists and firefighters that climate change is making California more prone to forest fires, referring to blatant "mismanagement" of forested areas. Ryan Zinke, Secretary of State for the Interior, said prosecutions by "radical environmental groups" were at the root of the lawsuits.
While he was traveling to devastated areas of California last weekend, Trump was wondering if what he had seen and heard had changed in his opinion about climate change, what would happen? he previously described as a "hoax". Trump answered the question with a company: "No"
"When daily images of California are burning, it's hard for the administration to argue that climate change is not happening," Oppenheimer said. "The strategy seems to be to let the sleeping dogs lie and hope the public does not pay attention."
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