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LONDON – Let's move on to the hard part.
On Sunday, the other 27 members of the European Union gave the green light to the agreement of Prime Minister Theresa May to seal the divorce of Britain. But it still has huge obstacles to overcome.
And after?
• Ms May will present the pact to the British Parliament: The Prime Minister must win the support of lawmakers who agree with rivals like Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who gave him scathing criticism for the Brexit, or members of the opposition Labor party. , who promised to vote against the agreement.
• legislators vote: A vote is expected before Christmas. Ms. May presented her case to the people by writing an open letter to the nation in which she asserted that the agreement was "an agreement that works for our entire country and for all of our people, whether you have voted "Leave" or "Stay". "
• The transition follows the approval. Both the House of Commons and the European Parliament must sign the agreement. If that happened, Britain would be about to leave the bloc on March 29, with a transition period until December 2020.
And what would happen if …
• The British Parliament can reject the agreement. The Labor Party, the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party and some radical supporters of Mrs May's conservative Brexit party pledged to vote against the agreement. A rejection could jeopardize Ms. May's leadership and perhaps her government.
"Politically, the UK is going through a crisis as deep as it has ever been since 1945," said Sunday Kevin Featherstone, director of the European Institute at the London School of Economics. "There does not seem to be a clear majority in Parliament for any alternative to the agreement: not for" not agree "and leave only with the WTO rules, not yet for a referendum, not for" Rest ".
• If Parliament votes no, a 21-day deadline comes into effect. Ms. May will have 21 days to make a statement on how the government should proceed.
• Mrs. May could try to renegotiate. Leaders of the European Union made it clear Sunday that it was unlikely that she would get any major concessions during a second round. This tactic is therefore unlikely to come out of the stalemate.
• The prime minister could resign. Nothing in her record indicates that she would easily quit smoking, especially if no one has a better plan.
• She could face a leadership challenge. Political chaos could make Ms. May's position unsustainable. But until now, the rebels have failed to get the 48 conservative votes needed to call for a vote of no confidence, not to mention the 159 votes to dismiss Ms. May.
• Legislators could try to bring together a multi-party majority for a "softer" Brexit. Some would like Britain to stay in the European single market, at least temporarily. This would mean accepting the free movement of people, which the Brexit activists fought to end.
• A second referendum could take place. The British could have the opportunity to change their minds and stay in the European Union – but such a vote should be passed by Parliament and could take months to set up.
• A Brexit "without agreement" could become a reality: If Parliament is blocked, leave the default option to the European Union. But with the Brexit approach, fear of what would happen to supply chains, trade and transportation could change perceptions. Mr. Featherstone suggested that, if the only possible solution is a total lack of agreement, lawmakers who do not like Ms. May's agreement can "vote in the end, fearing that there will be no other solution ".
