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It's not even two months ago, almost every NBA writer on The Crossover staff chose the Warriors and Celtics to meet at the NBA Finals. The logic was unassailable. Warriors are better than everyone else. The Celtics sent two NBA talents back to an alignment that made the conference finals without them.
Nearly six weeks after the start of the season, however, both teams seemed to crack, albeit for very different reasons. (And my choice for the Nuggets-Raptors final briefly looked at the genius.) The struggles of which team were most disturbing? Let's take a closer look.
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The Warriors
Golden State appears to be back on track, winning two wins this weekend after losing four straight games – its worst Steve Kerr course. An incredible defensive performance helped push back the Trail Blazers, while a cumbersome night of Kevin Durant crushed a team of Kings arriving two nights later. It's hard not to roll your eyes every time you write about the turmoil of warriors. This training could bicker and DNP make their way up to the eighth seeded, then get to 16-0 in the playoffs if everyone is in good health.
Injuries are the obvious catalyst for Dub problems. Steph Curry and Draymond Green have both lost time. Forget the level of Curry gravity changing league attack for one second. It's so much for the Warriors, that it's all about playing with the pace or introducing the appropriate culture, that you can only begin to quantify its massive impact with statistics. The same could be said of Green, whose play goes hand in hand with his abrasive attitude. In most cases, this attitude is used to thwart opponents and Green will also improve the team once back.
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There are, however, some problems to watch in the bay. Although the Warriors preach good shots for superb blows, they have settled in too much of mid-range JS in the absence of Curry. Durant and Klay Thompson have a different game when they are responsible for carrying the offensive, and they can not do much more when the defense charges them. KD's isolations and Thompson's incursions into the arc are victories for the opposing team and these two players have not always dictated the terms of their engagements during this recent sequence.
This is perhaps the most alarming thing about this late November sequence for the Warriors – the support cast. The depth is beautiful when everyone is in good health. If guys like Alfonzo McKinnie and Jonas Jerebko are certainly useful pieces, the rotation certainly has weaknesses. The defenses are happy to ignore the offensive of the non-stars of Golden State. The Warriors are only 18th in the offensive standings since Curry's injury. Even with one of the greatest scorers (Durant) and the biggest shooters (Thompson) of all time, Golden State gets guarded with Curry on the ground.
Is there a reason for long-term panic here? Not really. But the margin of error of warriors without one of their stars may be smaller than expected. If Curry were to suffer any injuries in the playoffs, Golden State would certainly not be able to survive. (Or maybe Boogie Cousins is coming back as a monster and Curry is resting until the final, I can even bet on this scenario.)
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Celtics
Frame. The five Boston launches were a disaster to start the season. The Kyrie-Tatum-Brown-Hayward-Horford group has a net score of -4.5, with a laughable offensive efficiency of 90.5. It's hard to tell Gordon Hayward when the whole team is struggling, but it's worth noting that Boston has a poor 103.5 point attack rating when he's on the field – a mark that brings even closer Celtics of the modest Suns. Although it may defy logic, Boston seemed much better with Marcus Smart instead of Hayward, and especially with Smart and Marcus Morris instead of Hayward and Jaylen Brown.
It seems that the Celts get the shots that they want offensively. Boston is the third player in the league in attempts at three points per game, but they are 19th with a percentage of three points to 34.3%. Hayward, Brown and Horford are all well below their career average, and a slight increase in their share could help correct the offense.
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After all this hubbub, Boston is counting on Irving, an anti-Thanksgiving fervent, to carry a huge charge on the offensive, and it's a bit unfair to expect it to count 40 points each night. What's fun is to hear Irving talk about how the team should learn to play with a target on its back as she was a key member of a team of dedicated Cavaliers who strolled October to October.
The good news for Boston is that the defense is still pending, and the Bhagwan, Brad Stevens, probably crushes Diet Cokes so he can stay awake late and know how to rectify the blame. It is obvious that the Celtics rely on their collective talent to understand it. Boston, on paper, still seems to be a bit of a match-up nightmare in a playoff series. If Hayward abandons an hour of Fortnite a day just to rediscover his three-point shot, the Celts could very well end up looking like the behemoth they were supposed to be.
The verdict
Do not worry about the warriors. Keep your eyebrows raised for the Celtics. Golden State will be fine once Curry returns and he hits all three with his eyes closed on the outstretched arms of a crying defender. Boston, a quarter of the season, faces serious offensive problems. Maybe all that will be needed is that the shots fall for this team to look like a competitor. But the Celtics are certainly not part of the class in the East, and they still have a long way to go to catch the world's Bucks and Raptors. (Heck, the Boston offensive has a long way to go to reach the Hornets and the Nets.)
There are many reasons to believe that these two teams will be perfectly fine. But Boston does not have the luxury of a talent comparable to that of Monstars, but suppose everything will be fine.
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