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Josh Donaldson is betting on himself in 2019. On Monday, the Braves announced that they had signed the former MVP with a one-year, $ 23 million contract. . This is the most expensive one-year contract ever signed with the free agency, and represents a fascinating bet on the part of Donaldson, who has just experienced one of the worst seasons of his career.
Expected to be 33 in December, the veteran third baseman saw his injured coach in 2018 playing only 52 games between the Blue Jays and the Indians. Disturbingly, it's his lower half – especially a left calf stretch – that kept Donaldson on the board for so long last season. This also contributed to his informal end in Toronto. The beloved franchise icon has virtually nothing to pay by the August deadline, after hitting a paltry 0.234 / 0.333 / 0.423 in 159 appearances on the plate so the Jays an unusually fragile defense thanks to a mysterious dead arm.
Donaldson straightened up in Cleveland, resembling his old face with the glove and cutting .280 / .400 / .520 in the last straight, but it was no more than 60 appearances at the plate, and he quickly went into the tank during an abbreviated post-season, collecting a single shot on 11 ALDS bats. In addition, it was worth only 1.2 Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference version), its lowest since its first full season in the major leagues in 2012. This also marks its third consecutive year with a total down WAR , from 8.5 in his 2015 campaign, winner of the MVP title, to 7.6 the following year, to 4.8 in 17 – another season during which he struggled to stay in the field.
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Concern for the future is that Donaldson's leg soft tissue injuries become chronic as he ages, depriving him of plate energy, base velocity, and distance to third base. This has probably made the teams suspicious of a long-term contract and may have rushed this one-year deal with Atlanta, who is more or less his team from his hometown ( he grew up in the Gulf of Florida and went to high school in Alabama before attending Auburn University). And while it's amazing that Donaldson did not play the market a little longer, given that he was the best option for his job in a tough market, it's hard to argue $ 23 million for a year equivalent to his salary of 2018 with that of Toronto.
The risk that Donaldson takes is twofold. On the one hand, a difficult season or interrupted by an injury cancels more or less the chances of a multi-year contract next winter. On the other hand, if he becomes a productive player again, the Braves could destroy his market by linking him to the qualifying offer. On top of that, the other free third-third base players next winter will likely include Nolan Arenado from the Rockies and Anthony Rendon from the Nationals, two options that will be better and younger for teams that need help.
Nevertheless, the chances for Donaldson to find long-term protection for this off season were probably slim in 2018. As for the pillow contracts, you could do a lot worse than $ 23 million to play for a competitor close to you. And even if he has a problem with Donaldson, whether or not he has a good season, the fear of lingering on the free market like so many other players last winter probably pushed him to reach an agreement as soon as possible.
For the Braves, however, this contract only has advantages. There is a chance, not an insignificant one, that last season marks the beginning of the end for Donaldson. It's hard to feel good about the loose-legged 33-year-old gamer and the tough kamikaze playing style, especially with many of his devices in the wrong direction. In 2018, Donaldson's ground ball rate increased, his swing attack percentage increased, his strike and strike rates both decreased for the third season in a row, and his average launch angle decreased by almost two degrees from the previous year.
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But if Donaldson is 100% – and again, it's a huge if – then it's nothing less than a flight to Atlanta. Remember that this is an elite talent on both sides of the ball – a person with a slash line average of .282 / .377 / .524 with a total of 145 OPS + of 2013 to '17. In those five seasons, only one player dominated Donaldson's total goals with a total of 36.1: Mike Trout. A healthy Donaldson has few equals among the majors; even at 75-85% it is still better than most others.
Even though Donaldson is no longer on the same track, it is not a huge expense for Atlanta. The Braves have only $ 50.87 million guaranteed for 2019; Even by adding increases through arbitrage, it is hard to imagine that they are crossing the $ 85 million threshold. Donaldson will have a payroll close to or above the $ 100 million mark, but this is both a drop from the $ 130 million figure last year and a pittance compared to the league and the financial position of the franchise.
Fangroup's Craig Edwards says the Braves – owned by multi-billion dollar Liberty Media – made a $ 100 million profit last year, with a bad TV deal and stadium traffic (in a new park paid close to zero to build thanks to exorbitant state subsidies) that is not part of the top 10. Atlanta has no excuse for not spending money, especially in light of the new $ 5.1 billion television rights agreement between MLB and Fox Sports, which will bring millions to each team, and especially with the young core of the team playing for cheap. In other words, the Braves can afford it if Donaldson heads south.
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The biggest problem will be what to do with the third defending player, Johan Camargo. The 25-year-old Panamanian was quietly great for Atlanta last season with a .272 / .349 / .457 record with 19 homers and a score of 116 OPS +; thanks to that and a solid defense, it was worth $ 3.7 billion. However, he will lose his job to Donaldson, which will leave him a little in disarray. Atlanta could make him a great submarine, even if he did not play much, except for the third goal, with a little time at the short stop and the second goal, but nowhere else. He could be assigned a stopover position against troubled Dansby Swanson. It could also be considered a bait for trade, given the presence not only of Donaldson, but also the main hope Austin Riley in third place.
Anyway, what to do with Camargo is a good problem to have if you are the Braves. But they can not stop at Donaldson. (It was also not the only gesture of the day: earlier Monday, the team brought veteran receiver Brian McCann on a one-year, $ 2 million contract to match Tyler Flowers behind the plate.) Free agent Nick Markakis, and Atlanta could also use the help of the concealer.
Donaldson is a good start, though. He will form an impressive upscale with Ronald Acuña, Jr. and Freddie Freeman and will add veteran leadership to a young clubhouse. It will be relatively cheap and without long term commitment. No matter how you cut it, it's a big win for the Braves. For Donaldson, it remains to be seen.
Grade: A-
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