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Greg WyshynskiESPN
After exchanging veteran defenseman Brooks Orpik (and his hat trick) at the Colorado Avalanche, Washington Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan was optimistic about the possibility of signing John Carlson before the most defender. coveted. "We are very close," MacLellan said Friday in Dallas.
He was not joking. Carlson and the Capitals announced a $ 64 million eight-year deal within 48 hours, allowing the 28-year-old to retain the Stanley Cup. "Supporters like John are a rare commodity in our league and, at the age of 28, we believe it's just coming into its prime of life," said MacLellan.
The same goes for many other teams, who now have to look elsewhere to strengthen their blue lines. Here's where dominoes fall after Carlson's signature.
What does it mean for Capitals?
Washington has his base group locked up at least the next two seasons at Carlson, Alex Ovechkin (signed until 2021), Evgeny Kuznetsov (2025), TJ Oshie (2025), Nicklas Backstrom (2020) and Braden Holtby (2020). ). The window to be repeated is open, and MacLellan and his capologist Don Fishman firmly control their cap number until Backstrom and Holtby meet.
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The Capitals are now turning to their other free agents, and should have enough ceiling space (over $ 13 million) to keep them. Front-end Tom Wilson is a restricted free agent who will receive a good dose of his last $ 2 million win last season. Michal Kempny, a time-to-trade acquaintance who has become Carlson's constant defensive partner, is an unrestricted free agent that MacLellan wants to sign.
Once these two are supported, the Capitals also have the playoff hero Devante Smith-Pelly need a new contract as a restricted freestyle player. The strange man, potentially? Veteran Jay Beagle, 32, earned $ 1.75 million a year for a three-year term last season, but could be replaced by a younger, less expensive but certainly less entertaining model.
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It is unfortunate that Mike Green's health is a concern for other teams as he is the only right-handed defender on the market that is close to Carlson's skill set. The Detroit Red Wings have offered him contracts for one and two years, and Green has expressed interest in staying in the Motor City. But his stock just jumped with Carlson from the board.
If straightness is not a priority for the teams, Columbus Blue Jackets defender Jack Johnson will get a little love after Carlson. Bob McKenzie, of TSN, speculated that the 31-year-old could get $ 6 million a season from someone, before Carlson gets eight more than eight .
But the conversation about the puck defenders who could play in the top four could stop there, with free agent Thomas Hickey and free agent Blue Jackets, Ian Cole, in front of a group of in-depth defenders available.
There are right-handed options among restricted self-employed players like Jacob Trouba of the Winnipeg Jets, Matt Dumba of the Minnesota Wild and Colin Miller of the Golden Knights of Vegas, but that would require a bidding sheet and therefore a violation of the handshake of the network that prevents this valid and constructive mechanism from ever being used.
What does this mean for the Erik Karlsson Sweepstake?
As you can see, the hard-hitting options on defense are limited in the free agent market. Which means that the Erik Karlsson Sweepstakes is more relevant than ever.
The first step in the process this summer will be the The Ottawa Senators offer him a contract extension that matches their desired financial framework, ie an offer of local ball and local ball. Carlson's contract gives GM Pierre Dorion a base of comparison at best, and an excuse for the economics of his franchise at worst.
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The next step, assuming Karlsson does not sign an extension, is trying to swap the 28 – year – old star before the free agency unrestricted next summer. It has a modified non-exchange clause. It is assumed that the teams that were on Carlson – the Golden Knights and the Islanders among them – would be aggressive in trying to acquire Karlsson. But the difference is that Carlson would not have cost resources or organizational resources, while Karlsson will be looking for a bonus.
As for Carlson's contract for Karlsson's next contract … well, it's really a three-person conversation here, thanks to Drewty Doughty.
What does it mean for Drewty Doughty?
The most significant impact of the Carlson signing, outside the Capitals, will be felt by the Los Angeles Kings. Doughty had recourse to the unrestricted free agency next summer, and the Kings had taken the unwavering commitment to keep it in the long run.
The average annual value of Carlson corresponds to that of San Jose Sharks defenseman Brent Burns ($ 8 million), but behind P.K. Subban of the Nashville Predators, who make a $ 9 million milestone next season. Arizona's Coyotes defender Oliver Ekman-Larsson has raised $ 8.25 million when his new deal comes into effect for the 2019-2020 season and beyond.
Given Carlson's deal, and given that Doughty is a better defender, could we see an AAV of over $ 10 million for him? Remember that Doughty talked about using Karlsson to calculate his price, and vice versa.
"Right now, I think we would evaluate what P.K does. I think we both deserve a little more than that," Doughty said last year at The Athletic.
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