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President Trump addresses the Nevada Republican Party Convention at Suncoast Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas on June 23rd. (Olivier Douliery / AFP / Getty Images)
Last week was turbulent for American politics, as the weeks were for each of the 158. But last week was particularly turbulent, given the broad retreat against President Trump's policy of separating families at the border and his eventual partial reversal. This is the kind of week that one could expect to see a sharp drop in the president's approval figures.
Gallup's Jeffrey Jones says the change is a function of the lower approvals of each party group: Republicans down three points, Independents down four points and Democrats down five.
But if we expand the goal just a little, we see a slightly different picture. Of course, there was a change of nine points over the previous week, but compared to two weeks before, the offset was only two points on the net. Trump's latest Trump endorsement reviews are basically the same as they were two weeks ago.
Since the end of April, many measures suggest relative stability in the Trump approval note. Gallup had it at 42 points of approval on average, with only two weeks more than one point of that number. RealClearPolitics the average of polls (which includes Gallup polls) averages about 43.5 points over this period. It is at 43.7% approval in the most recent average of RealClearPolitics.
Looking at this Gallup chart, the aberration seems not to be the most recent week but the week before, from June 11th to June 17th. Gallup Jones mentioned a possible factor in a brief bump in Trump's numbers: the meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
"While the more positive feelings towards Trump coming out of the event would have probably dissipated in time, this process was probably sped up by the controversy over the administration's immigration policy," writes Jones.
Could be. But it should be noted that the full range of Trump-approved assessments in Gallup only goes from 33 to 46 points, with a median of 38. (The long-term average, says Gallup, is 39%.) In average RealClearPolitics, the range was smaller, from 37 to 46 percent, with a median of 40.4 percent.
In other words, after two remarkable weeks in a row, Trump finds himself above the midway mark in the narrow box that limits his ratings of approval. This box is narrow, as we have already reported, because Trump 's opinions are so strong: Most Americans really like it or do not really like it, and that' s the case. is the small percentage without a strong opinion that encourages his hesitations.
Did immigration hurt Trump? There is certainly no evidence that he help. But Gallup's great swing is more like a return to normal than a radical change.
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