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E.T. has not yet telephoned home because it may not be smart enough to know how to do it. Or simply, it may not exist at all.
A new study from the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) of Oxford University, named "Dissolve the Fermi Paradox," suggests that humanity is alone in the observable universe, putting a brake on the theory that there is an intelligent life universe.
"When the model is represented to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial ex ante probability of the absence of other intelligent life in our observable universe, and therefore there should be little surprise when we do not detect any sign, "reads the summary of the study. "This result dissolves the Fermi paradox and, in doing so, eliminates any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects on the universe."
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The Fermi paradox, named after the physicist Enrico Fermi, is the contradiction between the absence of any evidence that the Earth has been visited by intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations and the high probability that one or more civilizations exist, in fact. because of a number of factors. Factors include: There are billions of stars in the galaxy similar to our Sun; many of these stars have telluric planets; and some of these civilizations may have developed interstellar travel, something that is now being discussed by experts, including the theoretical physicist Dr. Michio Kaku.
The study, which was published earlier this month, was led by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord.
Sandberg, Drexler and Ord also look at the famous Drake equation, a seven-term equation that attempts to examine the different variables that would be relevant to intelligent life forms. This includes factors such as formed stars and their planets, the average number of planets that can potentially support life. Other factors include a fraction of those planets that can develop life and a fraction of those civilizations that have become intelligent.
In this study, Sandberg, Drexler and Ord have reconsidered Drake's equation, seeking to add chemical and genetic transitions. They noted that by incorporating these into the equation, this raises significant amounts of scientific uncertainty.
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Speaking with Universal-Sci, Dr. Sandberg said:
"Many parameters are very uncertain given current knowledge.While we have learned much more about astrophysics since Drake and Sagan in the 1960s, we are still very uncertain about the probability of life and intelligence When people discuss the equation, it's not uncommon to hear them say something like, "This parameter is uncertain, but guess it's a conjecture," ultimately reaching a result that they admit based on suppositions.But this result will be indicated as a unique number, and this anchors us to an estimate * apparently * exact – when it should have a range of appropriate uncertainty. to excessive trust, and worse, Drake's equation is very sensitive to bias: if you hope a little boost upward in several uncertain estimates will give a hopeful result, and if you are pessimistic, you can easily get a low result. "
Sandberg added that based on the parameters of the equation, they looked at the smallest and largest values that they could have and found with a probability of 30% that the Humanity is alone in the universe.
"We found that even using the estimates in the literature (we took them and randomly combined the parameter estimates), the average number of civilizations in the galaxy could be quite high – say a hundred – and yet the probability that we are alone in the galaxy, that's 30%! ", he said." The reason is that there is a very unequal distribution of probability. "
The results of the study drew the attention of several experts, including SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
"That's why we have to preserve the light of consciousness by becoming a civilization of space and extending the lives of other planets," writes Musk on Twitter following the release of the study. in Universal-Sci.
Musk continued, "We do not know if we are the only civilization currently alive in the observable universe, but any chance we are is an extra boost to extend life beyond the Earth."
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"When we take into account realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates with probability distributions reflecting current scientific understanding, we find no reason to be very confident that the galaxy (or the universe observable) contains other civilizations and no longer finds our observations in conflict with our earlier probabilities, "reads in the conclusion of the study.
He continues: "When we update this preamble in the light of Fermi's observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (respectively 53% – 99.6% and 39% -85%) "Where are they?" – probably extremely distant, and most likely beyond the cosmological horizon and never inaccessible. "
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Despite the seemingly bleak nature of the results of the study, this does not mean that extraterrestrials do not exist or that we will never find them. This means that based on current knowledge, humanity is probably the only intelligent species in the Milky Way.
Sandberg said that the results of the study show that SETI (search for extraterrestrial intelligence) is not "useless", but rather the opposite.
"There is a huge level of uncertainty to reduce," Sandberg said. "The article shows that astrobiology and SETI can play a big role in reducing uncertainty on some parameters. Even terrestrial biology can give us important information about the likelihood of it." 39; emergence of life and conditions leading to intelligence. "
Follow Chris Ciaccia on Twitter @Chris_Ciaccia
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