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MONTREAL – Polls showed Canadians applauded when their Prime Minister announced this summer that President Trump would not put pressure on Canada.
But Canadian experts warn that playing against this crowd is a dangerous temptation that could hinder trade negotiations in North America.
While Canadian leader Justin Trudeau has had a period of political bad luck at home, many are watching what the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) talks resumed on Wednesday. enter into an agreement with the United States.
Derek Burney, a senior government official of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney in the 1980s and 1990s, believes a setback in the negotiations could give people a reason to beat their chest, but that will not produce an increase economy.
Trump's provocative rhetoric "makes [Trudeau’s] the task a little easier, frankly, "in terms of public support, Burney said. "It just makes things harder."
The idea that Trudeau might be tempted to talk harder to gain popularity is "wrong," said a senior trade negotiator. The government believes that Canadian public opinion will eventually build on the results of the talks.
"It is important to be strong and strong in the national interest," said the official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the interviews. "That being said, I think we, the United States and Mexico would all like to see a quick conclusion of these negotiations."
The Trudeau political incident began with a disastrous trip to India in February, but they came to the head last week. His government had committed more than $ 4 billion to take over a pipeline project via Vancouver, but his court ruling on Thursday put an end to its construction.
[Two of Canada’s biggest provinces are feuding over an oil pipeline. Trudeau is caught in the middle.]
With a federal election scheduled for next year, the pipeline bet has become a political waste, leaving many Canadians furious that it appears he will not abandon it or that Trudeau has supported it in the first place.
That same week, Canada learned that it had been unexpectedly excluded from a preliminary trade agreement between Mexico and the United States.
According to experts, the political rally will only increase the determination of Canadian negotiators to reach a NAFTA deal.
But Canadian polls show that the challenge is popular, especially with respect to trade negotiations.
According to a Globe and Mail-CTV survey, more than 70% of Canadians surveyed said in July that they approve of Trump's relationship with Trudeau.
Results like this may have played out Tuesday in Trudeau's decision to draw a firm line on some issues, telling the media that Canada will not accept US proposals to remove a key dispute resolution clause or Canadian cultural protections.
Trudeau's political opponents said the decision worried them. Last week, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland refused to confirm the negotiating position of her team or comment on Trump's inflammatory remarks about the negotiations.
"Last week, if the [foreign affairs] The minister said we do not trade in public, it should be our line, and our own Prime Minister should not compromise it a few days later, "said Erin O-Toole, a Conservative MP who is the official representative of his party. criticism of foreign affairs.
"Donald Trump is difficult to manage; nobody is questioning, "he said. "Do not put domestic politics – it will only complicate things."
On the other side of the political spectrum, Trudeau's approach to Trump has already earned him significant room for maneuver. The leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada, Jagmeet Singh, tweeted on Friday that "Trump is trying to impose a bad deal on Canadians, and our government is right to take the time necessary to make this agreement perfect."
The government also appreciates the rave reviews of union leaders. Unifor president, Jerry Dias, whose 315,000 members include thousands of auto workers who would be harmed by Trump's threatened auto rates, said he was in favor of Canadian media camped out of Washington negotiations.
Dias said in an interview that he believed Trudeau had shown "excellent leadership".
"Canadians give the government a lot of credit for their firmness," he said. "Bend to Trump 's idea, to Trump' s agenda, is a bigger political loser.
According to the experts, the easiest task for Trudeau is to follow up on Trump's Canadian public opinion. The most difficult thing will be to predict the reaction of voters to different versions of a reworked trade agreement.
Canadians want to reach an agreement, if only to have stability and certainty in their economy, said pollster Nik Nanos. "I think this will have a significant impact on his assessment, on assessing his status as prime minister."
In addition, the trade negotiations ended the damage to Trudeau's support, particularly in Alberta and British Columbia, due to the pipeline debacle, said Jared Wesley, a political scientist from the University of Government.
"NAFTA does not play at all," he said. "He has not been in the news for a long time."
"Elastic" deadlines are another thing that makes serious discussions difficult, Burney said. "No one is going to expose his bottom card in the negotiation until he knows there is no more room."
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