3 reasons given by meteorologists about Hurricane Florence

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Honestly, a small part of my answer to the question in the title is "I'm not sure". However, the vast majority of them know that there is a mix of attention, hyperventilation in social media and curiosity every time a hurricane hits the Atlantic, especially a hurricane that reaches a status of major hurricane (category 3 or higher). There are times when a "reality check" perspective is needed. Many people can take a quick look at the storm and ask, "Why are all these types of weather talking about this storm while it is far away in the Atlantic Ocean right now? ? " It's a fair question that deserves an answer.

It's a major hurricane. Florence is a major hurricane and therefore deserves special attention on the basis of this designation. This is the first Category 4 hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic season, but it has weakened to Grade 3 at the time of writing. The National Hurricane Center AST information notes from 5 am:

The center of Hurricane Florence was located near Latitude 24.1 North and Longitude 47.9 West. Florence is heading north-west near 19 km / h. A turn to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn to the west by the week-end. end. Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 115 mph (185 km / h) with higher gusts …..
forecasts today, but Florence should remain a strong
hurricane for the next few days ….. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

Two things in this notice draw my attention as a meteorologist, "turn the weekend westward" and "further weakening". The graph above shows the wind shear (the red outline lines indicate higher values) and the precipitable water (moisture measurement). The weakening is related to the wind shear that meets the storm and may be a bit of dry air. As the storm turns to the west later, it is expected that intensification will resume as a high level high pressure zone (high pressure zone) is expected to form near the storm and there is There is a lot of hot water along the storm. An examination of current sea surface temperatures (below) shows waters of 28 to 29 degrees Celsius around Bermuda and off US shores.

Hoopla Social Media. The social hype whenever there are certain weather events is now part of the landscape. Meteorologists, weather enthusiasts and occasional adepts have a "buzz" when a major hurricane, epidemic or snowstorm is expected. Unfortunately, this leads to a lot of "social media-oology" No-No. My good friend and colleague James Spann's tweet captures the spirit of what I'm talking about. Spann, a legendary meteorologist in Birmingham, tweeted on September 5, 2018:

A friendly reminder; displaying deterministic model results with tropical cyclone positions in 10 days to get actions and preferences (or scare people) is not cool. This is useless. A drunken donkey could pull this data and post it.

The meteorological models, especially the European model sets, showed a diffusion in the possible track of Florence. Earlier in the development of storms, it seemed he was going to bend. However, the models continued to offer solutions that included westbound lanes that brought Bermuda and the United States into conversation. There is certainly enough information that Hurricane Florence needs to watch, but Meteorologist Brad Panovich in Charlotte, North Carolina, displays the graph below.

The point raised by Panovich is not that we lack the skills to make reliable predictions. In fact, we absolutely do in a certain range. My interpretation of his chart is that anyone who thinks they know so far where the storm will follow given the limitations of weather patterns beyond 10 days is "full of warm air" like the eye of the eye. a Florence.

Hurricane Florence is rather north and east of previous storms. Another point of discussion about Hurricane Florence is its location in relation to other storms like this one. An outstanding meteorologist and a doctoral student at Oklahoma University, Sam Lillo, tweeted,

In the face of cool ocean temperatures and moderate wind shear, #Hurricane #Florence has rapidly intensified to a force close to grade 4. Not only is this situation rare given the conditions, but it is also north-east of the climatological band of the major cyclonic routes.

Lillo produced this chart below showing where Hurricane Florence is relative to the previous major hurricanes in the climatological database.

Lillo made no statement about the climate. I also think that speculating on the causality of any specific storm is irresponsible and diverts attention from the immediacy of the threat. However, scientists familiar with the field know that there are studies in the scientific literature that report a trend of tropical cyclonic pole migration (northward in our hemisphere). A 2014 article published in Nature, one of the world's most respected scientific journals, found that the gap was 53 kilometers per decade in the northern hemisphere and 62 kilometers in the southern hemisphere, respectively. A more recent article published in 2018 in Climate Dynamics confirmed this conclusion. This study also noted "a shift to a greater potential (smaller) number of genesis at higher (lower) latitudes in most areas of the Pacific Ocean".

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Honestly, a small part of my answer to the question in the title is "I'm not sure". However, the vast majority of them know that there is a mix of attention, hyperventilation in social media and curiosity every time a hurricane hits the Atlantic, especially a hurricane that reaches a status of major hurricane (category 3 or higher). There are times when a "reality check" perspective is needed. Many people can take a quick look at the storm and ask, "Why are all these types of weather talking about this storm while it is far away in the Atlantic Ocean right now? ? " It's a fair question that deserves an answer.

It's a major hurricane. Florence is a major hurricane and therefore deserves special attention on the basis of this designation. This is the first Category 4 hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic season, but it has weakened to Grade 3 at the time of writing. The National Hurricane Center AST information notes from 5 am:

The center of Hurricane Florence was located near Latitude 24.1 North and Longitude 47.9 West. Florence is heading north-west near 19 km / h. A turn to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn to the west by the week-end. end. Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 115 mph (185 km / h) with higher gusts …..
forecasts today, but Florence should remain a strong
hurricane for the next few days ….. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

Two things in this notice draw my attention as a meteorologist, "turn the weekend westward" and "further weakening". The graph above shows the wind shear (the red outline lines indicate higher values) and the precipitable water (moisture measurement). The weakening is related to the wind shear that meets the storm and may be a bit of dry air. As the storm turns to the west later, it is expected that intensification will resume as a high level high pressure zone (high pressure zone) is expected to form near the storm and there is There is a lot of hot water along the storm. An examination of current sea surface temperatures (below) shows waters of 28 to 29 degrees Celsius around Bermuda and off US shores.

Hoopla Social Media. The social hype whenever there are certain weather events is now part of the landscape. Meteorologists, weather enthusiasts and occasional adepts have a "buzz" when a major hurricane, epidemic or snowstorm is expected. Unfortunately, this leads to a lot of "social media-oology" No-No. My good friend and colleague James Spann's tweet captures the spirit of what I'm talking about. Spann, a legendary meteorologist in Birmingham, tweeted on September 5, 2018:

A friendly reminder; displaying deterministic model results with tropical cyclone positions in 10 days to get actions and preferences (or scare people) is not cool. This is useless. A drunken donkey could pull this data and post it.

The meteorological models, especially the European model sets, showed a diffusion in the possible track of Florence. Earlier in the development of storms, it seemed he was going to bend. However, the models continued to offer solutions that included westbound lanes that brought Bermuda and the United States into conversation. There is certainly enough information that Hurricane Florence needs to watch, but Meteorologist Brad Panovich in Charlotte, North Carolina, displays the graph below.

The point raised by Panovich is not that we lack the skills to make reliable predictions. In fact, we absolutely do in a certain range. My interpretation of his chart is that anyone who thinks they know so far where the storm will follow given the limitations of weather patterns beyond 10 days is "full of warm air" like the eye of the eye. a Florence.

Hurricane Florence is rather north and east of previous storms. Another point of discussion about Hurricane Florence is its location in relation to other storms like this one. An outstanding meteorologist and a doctoral student at Oklahoma University, Sam Lillo, tweeted,

In the face of cool ocean temperatures and moderate wind shear, #Hurricane #Florence has rapidly intensified to a force close to grade 4. Not only is this situation rare given the conditions, but it is also north-east of the climatological band of the major cyclonic routes.

Lillo produced this chart below showing where Hurricane Florence is relative to the previous major hurricanes in the climatological database.

Lillo made no statement about the climate. I also think that speculating on the causality of any specific storm is irresponsible and diverts attention from the immediacy of the threat. However, scientists familiar with the field know that there are studies in the scientific literature that report a trend of tropical cyclonic pole migration (northward in our hemisphere). A 2014 article published in Nature, one of the world's most respected scientific journals, found that the gap was 53 kilometers per decade in the northern hemisphere and 62 kilometers in the southern hemisphere, respectively. A more recent article published in 2018 in Climate Dynamics confirmed this conclusion. This study also noted "a shift to a greater potential (smaller) number of genesis at higher (lower) latitudes in most areas of the Pacific Ocean".