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Iran reports that it will support the US efforts to roll back its military presence in the Middle East, strengthen foreign alliances, and continue to project electricity abroad despite the sanctions that put pressure on the country. intense about his economy.
Tehran signed a long-term security pact with Syria in August and has maintained the flow of arms and financial support for the forces of substitution in the region, according to US officials and a person close to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon .
On Sunday, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told a meeting with Air Force commanders that Iran needed to increase its personnel and buy more equipment. He did not elaborate.
Iran's Iranian attitude is reflected in a fall in its currency and the withdrawal of foreign investors, largely because of rising tensions between Washington and Tehran. In May, President Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement, which, according to government officials, was part of a broader effort to curtail Iran's activities in the Middle East. East.
"In my opinion, what Iran is doing today is simply a continuation of what they've been doing for a long time, namely hardening themselves, building the alliances that they can and getting ready for. On the day "when a conflict with the United States could break out, Lieutenant-General Michael Nagata of the National Counter Terrorism Center said at a conference organized Wednesday by the Institute for the fight against terrorism. war study, a Washington think tank.
US officials recognize that Iran has not withdrawn from its assertive position and that Iran's shipments of missiles and advanced weapons to the region have even accelerated. But they also note that the most severe sanctions are coming.
Iran has long sought to spread military power and political clout beyond its borders. This is an important support of the Assad regime in Syria, which is preparing for what could be a decisive battle in its war of more than seven years against the rebels. Iran has long been supporting Shiite militias in Iraq and has been accused in recent years of supplying weapons to Houthi rebels in Yemen, fighting a coalition led by Iran's rival Saudi Arabia – a charge denied by Tehran.
The Hezbollah militia in Lebanon is at the heart of Tehran's strategy and has led Iran's intervention in Syria on behalf of the Syrian regime. Iran has maintained funding for the militia war effort, according to the person close to the group.
"Not much has changed," said the person. "Salaries are paid, training and funding are the same."
The Iranian economy is, however, under increasing stress. The value of the rial fell by nearly 70% this year, from 45,000 to the dollar in January to 140,000 Wednesday, a historic low. The Iranian parliament's research center predicts the economy will contract between 3.8% and 5.5% in the next Iranian fiscal year, which begins in March.
Tehran does not provide accurate information on its military spending. But according to the Stockholm Independent Peace Research Institute, Iran spent about $ 14 billion in 2017, an increase of 15 percent over the previous year.
The estimates are also complicated because the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which oversees Iran's military operations abroad, plays an important role in the black economy. It also manages companies that will face less competition with the withdrawal of foreign companies.
In the past, however, Iran has managed to protect its military operations from economic upheavals in its country. For example, Iran sent personnel and arms to support the Syrian regime while under President Obama's sanctions.
"It's an absolutely flawed perception that Iranians will pull out of the region if they have economic problems," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iranian project at the International Crisis Group, an independent think tank. "Whenever they experience increased pressure, they feel the need to double up."
Iran's analysts also say that many of Tehran's overseas operations are also inexpensive, allowing him to fight and provoke his enemies.
"Iran's presence in Syria today is limited and inexpensive," said Mohammad Marandi, a political analyst at the University of Tehran, whose opinions often support the Iranian institution. "The same can be said of Iraq. The war against ISIS has been largely funded by the Iraqi government and is nearing completion. Iran's presence is therefore limited and does not represent a financial burden. "
The United States has also borne much of the burden of fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria, spending more than $ 18.6 billion from August 2014 to March 2018, according to Pentagon figures.
The Trump administration still hopes to overthrow what officials see as an important Iranian presence in the region, punishing its oil industry and access to foreign exchange.
In Iraq, Iranian soldiers use reconnaissance drones and train Shiite militias, according to US officials. US officials have also confirmed to the Wall Street Journal a Reuters report that Iran has sent short-range missiles on Shia militias in Iraq. They added that the intentions of the Iranians were not completely clear and that the missiles were not openly displayed.
Iran has described reports of missile shipments as fake, intended to stoke Tehran's fear.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said
recently he was "deeply concerned" by the reports. "If true, it would be a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty," he said, adding that "Baghdad should determine what is happening in Iraq, not Tehran."
Iran has shown restraint in confronting the United States, according to analysts who said it had stopped harassing US ships in the Persian Gulf and had not tested a medium-range missile since July 2017.
While Tehran rejected the Trump administration's requests to withdraw from Syria, it withdrew its forces from the southwestern regions, near the Israeli border, at the request of Russia, which sought to address Israeli concerns. .
Yet these initiatives are an example of Iran's "strategic patience" and not of withdrawal, Vaez said. "Iran may have decided to slow down. But it's a passing phase.
Write to Sune Engel Rasmussen at [email protected] and Michael R. Gordon at [email protected]
