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Tropical Storm Florence looms about 1800 miles east of the east coast of the United States on Thursday night. (NOAA)
(This article, first published at 11:15 and updated at 5:00 pm, was revised at 11:15 pm based on the decommissioning of Florence as a tropical storm.)
After quickly escalating into the first major hurricane of the season (category 3 or higher) on Wednesday, Florence weakened considerably on Thursday and was downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph.
However, it is expected that the storm will strengthen in hurricane over the weekend and that alarm bells sound that it could have an effect on the east coast in about a week. Whether a direct hit, a chatter or a near-miss is unknown for an event in the future. The storm is still 1,800 miles off the east coast.
The wind shear Thursday has severely disrupted the development and structure of thunderstorms in Florence and could continue to weaken the storm on Friday. But this destructive wind shear should relax this weekend and, as the storm moves on warm waters, a steady intensification is planned. On Monday or Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that it will recover the Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph.
It is too early to say for sure that Florence will reach the United States. If it does manage to get to the US coast, it will probably be between Wednesday and Friday. Although the storm intensity forecasts are extremely uncertain, they could approach the East Coast as a major hurricane, classified as Category 3 or higher.
In recent days, US and European computer models have been relatively stable on a track dangerously close to the East Coast, but with oscillations and jumps, as expected in a forecast of seven to ten days. But now, we are within six or seven days, and the models are starting to become more reliable.
Group of simulations of American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Wednesday evening (previous model) and Thursday (most recent model). Each strand of color represents a different model simulation with slight changes in the initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered where the forecast trajectory is the safest, but they diverge when the course of the storm is less certain. The bold red line represents the average of all European model simulations, while blue represents the average of all US model simulations. Thin bolder lines are the main or operational simulations of each model. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
In general, these models have moved the runway westward, closer to the United States, but the average of all simulations is still off.
Of the 50 simulations of the European modeling system (in red above), some bring the storm inland, others hug the shoreline, others fold it further offshore.
In general, an inland track would entail multiple hazards, including torrential rains and destructive winds on the coast and some inland areas, as well as a substantial increase in the amount of water lost. 39 water above normally dry land in coastal areas. An offshore storm would result in heavy rains and strong winds near the coast, dangerous waves, beach erosion and coastal flooding. A track further away at sea would limit the effects on the Atlantic coast, mainly large waves and tear currents.
It is too early to focus on specific trajectory forecasts, but closely monitors trends in overall group simulations.
Since 1851, 67 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of Florence's present location, and not one has never hit the United States. So if it does, it would be an extraordinary value.
Traces of the 67 known tropical storms and hurricanes that occurred within 200 nautical miles of the Florence position from the 5 o'clock notice.
However, the meteorological configuration of this storm, dominated by strong pressure on the North Atlantic, is very unusual and able to bring this hurricane to the east coast.
Residents across the east coast should keep a close watch on the forecast to keep this storm informed, but no one should panic. Do not consider social media publications and news articles that proclaim the gloom of a given scenario. It is simply impossible to determine exactly where this storm will end, how strong it will be and how much it will affect or affect any area. It will be necessary to wait until the weekend, at the earliest, to speculate on these specificities and to discuss particular results, according to different scenarios of models.
But it's never too early to get ready. Have trees that could fall on your house during a windstorm? Cut them now. Dlutter drains and gutters. Make sure you have an emergency kit with supplies for at least three days. These are some of the basic things that anyone living along or near the East or Gulf coasts should do during the hurricane season. This is a great opportunity to do them.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic
A wave that left the West African coast on Sunday is also close to becoming a depression or a tropical storm. It's just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The models are keeping this system at a low latitude over the coming week, so we'll need to watch it closely as it could hit the leeward islands next Thursday. If named, it will become Helen.
In addition, another powerful wave is leaving Africa today, but the models do not generally favor this development.
This morning, the season recorded 71% of the cyclone's accumulated energy for the date, which is an integrated measure of the intensity and duration of all the storms that have formed.
We are now entering the most active climatological week of the hurricane season. We had seven named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane; Today's average is six named storms, two hurricanes and a major hurricane.
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