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Risk assessment can be risky. I mean, it's right there in the name.
So there was a risk in writing Le'Veon Bell. There were reports during the summer, it could sit a big part of the season. As for most, the Madman has ruled out such a possibility because history tells us that such financial quarrels are systematically resolved before the season. Few players are willing to sacrifice huge sums – in the case of Bell, nearly a million per game.
But here we are, with the prospect that Bell is running out of time now a distinct possibility. So the risks we've taken in writing Bell are not very profitable now.
Perhaps you wrote James Conner as handcuffed, and while you're successful in production, you have at least one playable asset to plug in Bell's place. Others, like the madman, do not particularly care about handcuffs. We are undergoing our third round more often – guys like Royce Freeman or Alex Collins or Lamar Miller – that we would all start with Conner even though we had it.
Bell's situation is more complicated than replacing him this week. We just do not know when he will come back. It could happen Saturday morning. He could sit halfway through the season. He could be short of money and return anytime between the two.
As a result, any transaction that impacts the entire season is risky. You exchange it tomorrow for a few cents on the dollar then it shows next Tuesday, and you will have a bad deal.
Only trade it if you are stuck for RB options, and only if you do not have to do it at a high price. If you can get, say, a Joe Mixon or Devonta Freeman or Jordan Howard, it works. You are demoted but you cover up in the worst case – Bell finds himself at half of the season and you are dangerously weak at RB2.
It is perfectly acceptable to react, just do not go into panic mode.
For now, Conner is playable as RB3 / Flex – behind guys like Collins and the gang mentioned above, behind Kenyon Drake and Derrick Henry; like Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde and Dion Lewis; in front of Chris Carson, Jordan Wilkins and Adrian Peterson.
On a daily basis, this changes a number of things. Granted, it puts Conner on the line as a cheap RB option ($ 5,000 FanDuel, $ 4,500 DraftKings). But it will also be extremely popular, which aggravates our great tournament interests. And because we're planning a tough game for the Steelers – a Browns team reworked on the road, with Bell's distraction at stake – we're not ahead of the Steelers for cash games.
Of course, no matter who participates in large tournaments at Guaranteed Price (GPP). Cheap guys are cheap, expensive guys are reliable, and guys in unideal dating are contending candidates. Antonio Brown is still an option, despite his price and the difficult situation of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington wide receivers also benefit from GPP booster.
We suggest some small shares of these players, but do not recommend too much exposure.
In the meantime, let's join us to send a message to our friend Le'Veon:
decision
Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Rage Jarad Wilk debate that you should start this week:
Marcus Mariota against Andrew Luck
Drew: Mariota – Dolphins … hmmmm. Mom always said to me: If I can not say anything nice, do not say anything at all. So what can I say about dolphins? Well, let's just say I'm not afraid of this clash. Luck, meanwhile, should show rust. And he is facing a Bengal side, for which we have a lot more respect, even if we do not fear him.
Jarad: Luck – Maybe he has not played for 20 months and maybe there will be rust, but Luck has been successful against Cincinnati the two times he's played (56 for 88 , 670 yards, six touchdowns, no interception). Although he is facing a defense that allowed 23 total touchdowns at QB and was eighth against the pass in 2017, this should be very offensive. Mariota has a new coach, new diets and uncertainty to the receiver. At least luck has her old friend T.Y. Hilton Good luck, Mariota!
Last season: Drew won the series, 9-8
Big weeks
Keenum QB Case, Broncos vs. Seahawks
($ 6,300 FanDuel / $ 5,100 DraftKings)
The Boom Legion is eroded. Keenum has weapons to match what he had during a season of expedition last year with the Vikings. We might guess that his favorite target will be Emmanuel Sanders.
Alex Collins RB, Ravens, against Bills
(FD $ 6,700 / DK $ 5,600)
Last season, the Bills were among the worst defenses against the opposing fantasy RBs, and we do not think it will be much better. With Nathan Peterman at QB, it could be very fast. A significant workload through gameplay and efficiency through matching makes Collins a great option.
Keenan Cole WR, Jaguars, at Giants
(FD $ 4,500 / DK $ 3,800)
With the confusion over who will absorb the lead role in the Jaguars' receiver body, we do not expect a shadow from Janoris Jenkins. Cole is a big playmaker. Jenkins has been known to give up big games like Marquise Goodwin last season.
Tyler Eifert TE, Bengals, at Colts
(FD $ 5,500 / DK $ 3,400)
Eifert is among the tight elites when he is in good health. Get it back as long as you can. The Colts finished in the third period at the end of the season on defense.
Small weaknesses
Russell Wilson QB, Seahawks, Broncos
(FD $ 7,900 / DK $ 6,200)
The offensive line is opposed to a defense starring Von Miller. The health and talent concerns of recipients against a high school that was among the strictest against the WR of recent seasons.
Alfred Morris RB, 49ers, at Vikings
(FD $ 5,500 / DK $ 3,600)
This message also applies to Matt Breida. The Vikings were the toughest last season against the opposition RBs, and that was not the end. Morris might be familiar with Kyle Shanahan's plan, but expect a lot of Breida, enough to undermine both. In a ruthless match, no thanks.
Amari Cooper WR, Raiders, vs Rams
(FD $ 6.800 / DK $ 7.100)
Beyond the skepticism that the offense is under the relic of Jon Gruden, Cooper's match with cornerback Aqib Talib is not promising and his great weekly volatility only amplifies our concerns.
Josh Gordon WR, Browns vs. Steelers
(FD $ 6,900 / DK $ 5,800)
Beyond Hue Jackson's "pitch count" commentary suggesting limited shots, Gordon has not been relevant since 2013. We'd rather burn ourselves until he proves he's back before to have burned several times.
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