The right-wing Swedish party is expected to run in Sunday's elections. Here is a surprising reason.

In the run-up to the elections, the supporters of this populist, anti-immigrant, anti-European and far-right party are stimulated. The critics of this movement are nervous. The modern trend of radicalism is not specific to Sweden, of course. But the run-up to the elections in Sweden raises once again the big question: why is right-wing populism on the rise in advanced democracies?

Immigration anxiety plays a role

Many experts emphasize the role of people's views on immigration in motivating voter support for radical right parties in Europe. Immigration anxiety about economic, cultural, and security impacts is increasingly a feature of people's electoral decisions. The radical positions of the immigration of radical right parties make them the electoral beneficiaries of these public concerns. Academic research supports this narrative, rooting the rise of the far right in complex social, economic and psychological trends and processes.

But there is another important factor: the election calendar

New evidence suggests a simple institutional mechanism that influences the voting share of right-wing populists in national election contests: the relative timing of municipal elections.

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While conducting research for my new book on the Radical Right Vote, I collected data on about 300 general elections in more than 30 advanced democracies, mainly in Europe, over three decades (1980 to 2010). Statistical tests show that when local elections of a country are held the same year as the national legislative elections, right-wing populist parties receive on average six percentage points more at the national level than local elections. years ". This effect is valid for the statistical accounting of various other factors such as immigration, unemployment and voter turnout.

Why is the local election calendar important for the outcome of national elections? I have analyzed large-scale opinion polls, including the European Values ​​Study, and conducted interviews in rural France in 2008 to better understand voters' motivations. far right. I've found that people who feel strongly connected to their area especially support radical right parties.

On the other hand, people who regularly participate in community activities, such as recreational clubs, do not have much appetite for these extremist parties. And while those who feel connected to their area are often the ones who participate, the gap has widened over time.

In many countries, feelings of local attachment have increased, but engagement in civic life has diminished. This means that a growing number of citizens have powerful feelings towards their communities, which can promote political extremism, but are not particularly attached to the standards of democratic political moderation that are reinforced by a routine social commitment.

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Here is how it is played in the political arena. Strong local devotion is most relevant to politics during local election contests. At these times, people focus on local issues and evaluate local solutions. Thus, holding local and national elections at the same time can generate a national sense of local protectionism. Think of it as an amplified NIMBY reflex ("not in my backyard") that can ultimately shape the national partisan dynamic.

In some ways, this "localism," as I call it, is related to anti-immigration sentiments; some voters wish to prevent foreign – born residents from settling in their communities. But my research has taught me that immigration is just one facet of a larger set of changes that people perceive as a threat to their localities. It is this broader change syndrome – which many regard as "globalization" – that radical right parties are campaigning hard to backtrack. Those who are nostalgic for a bygone era – real or imagined – find the calls of far-right populists particularly appealing.

Now back in Sweden

National and local elections are scheduled for 9 September. The 290 municipal assemblies and 20 county council assemblies have significant authority in Sweden. For example, these local governing bodies have the autonomy to collect certain taxes and to develop various regulations. These powers make local Swedish elections particularly important points of comparison with countries where formal decision-making is more concentrated in the corridors of national governments.

This new study suggests that the coordination of local and national elections bodes well for the Swedish far right. As a result, the Swedish Democrats seem well placed to make electoral gains on Sunday.

Democracies in Europe and elsewhere increasingly tend to hold multiple levels of elections simultaneously, which can reduce electoral costs and increase voter turnout. But election planners have probably not considered an unintended consequence: the boost that radical right parties can receive from this popular administrative trend. What appears to be a bureaucratic choice can have important implications for democratic systems.

Jennifer Fitzgerald is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Colorado, Boulder. His research focuses on public opinion and voter behavior in advanced democracies. She is the author of Close to Home: Local links and radical voting rights in Europe (Cambridge University Press 2018).