Austerity and crash of 2008 propelled the far right of Sweden before the refugee crisis

An uncompromising anti-immigrant party is on the brink of winning a victory in Sweden on Sunday, suggesting a radical new shift to the far right in Europe in a liberal historical bastion.

Swedish Democrats say the rise is due to the fact that countries like theirs have been submerged by foreigners, especially after more than 2 million people have flocked to Europe since 2015 But new research suggests that this line could be as misleading as the stories of party supporters. pumped on social media on the behavior of immigrants.

Instead, the party's success is strongly associated with a factor that foreigners control little: the political choices of Swedish politicians, according to a recently released statement. paper by five economists who rely on data about the Democratic candidates and the Swedish voters.

Experts point to a double blow. In 2006, a new center-right government became attached to the famous Swedish welfare state, reducing unemployment, sickness and disability benefits to fund tax cuts and causing a sharp and lasting increase in inequality. of income. In 2008, the global financial crisis hit, resulting in significant job losses, particularly among those who had already become less secure in the labor market.

"Most people think of radicals as external shocks, like trade. [with foreign workers proving cheaper than domestic ones] and globalization … The effect of the austerity policy is the point that you could withdraw from our document, "said Johanna Rickne, one of the co-authors of the report and a professor at the University of Stockholm.

The first election after the events on which researchers focused in 2010 marked the first time that Swedish Democrats got enough votes to enter the Swedish parliament. In the next election, they more than doubled their share of the vote.

According to the researchers, the party relied on the growing suffering of "foreigners" – people, mostly working class workers with a low level of education, who had few stable jobs and largely depended on government benefits. Swedish Democrats also attracted particular 'vulnerable insiders', whose jobs were particularly likely to be outsourced or destroyed by the market, perhaps due to technological changes.

These groups of "relative economic losers" also represented a disproportionate number of election candidates compared to other Swedish parties. The result was that the two groups became closely linked to a bullying party that had existed since 1988, but which was not a major force after emerging from neo-Nazi circles.

"If you make yourself worse, compared to others, and your income stagnates or even decreases from year to year relative to people with a steady job … people tend to think that immigrants are taking resources rather than understanding tax policies ". Rickne said.

In the years that followed, Sweden's economy became one of the most dynamic in Europe. Swedes who are "insiders" have done better and better. But inequality has continued to prosper – and the Swedish democrats too. The country's main left-center and center-right parties have shown little interest in reconsidering the 2006 tax cuts package or other measures for wider redistribution. Even the social spending promises of the main liberal party, the Social Democrats, focus on universal benefits rather than those that target, for example, "outsiders".

This apparent insensitivity – and economic changes in the first place – is the reason why many voters became suspicious and were inspired to make fun of the Swedish establishment. With this priority, these voters have respected the determination of the Swedish Democrats to criticize the general consensus of politicians on the reception of immigrants, said the document, perceiving this as a way to tackle the Swedish elites as much (or maybe more ) to foreigners. So hard and focused rhetoric is important, but not only because of the racial animosity of voters.

Voters stuck with the party like that it's concentrated sure restrictions on immigration, saying little to reverse the policies of the mid-2000s and instead adopting normative discourses fiscally conservative on the value of tax cuts and argue having fewer immigrants will preserve the welfare state. And the researchers found that the continued support of these groups to Swedish Democrats does not seem to be linked to direct exposure to immigrants or demographic changes in their own communities.

Sound familiar? Other developed economies that are getting richer but also more unequal have seen similar developments. Another study published this year revealed links between policy-induced austerity in the UK and support for the impoverished part of the country that promoted Brexit, the paper said. In FinlandA far-right party has made gains after painful spending cuts, even though the country has experienced minimal immigration levels.

Factors other than economic anxiety remain at the center of the popularity and conduct of anti-immigrant parties such as the Swedish Democrats.

"Our article does not provide 100% of the explanation," Rickne said.

But it draws attention in Sweden and abroad – and undeniably has an interest in showing what rival politicians and others are unhappy with growth that is difficult to understand.

"I find their findings interesting and intuitively reasonable," said Niklas Bolin of Mid Sweden University in an email, noting that the study was moving away from much of the other research directly related to increased anti-immigration views for increased support to the far right.

A central question remains whether voters like these support parties because they claim to be anti-institutional, away from elitist views on immigration or other issues or whether economic insecurity

"A plausible hypothesis is that less economically well-off voters are also more receptive to anti-immigration messages," Bolin wrote.

At least some clues are probably in Sunday's results and the consequences: what the Swedish Democrats do with their new power and the reaction of their supporters.