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Washington is sip of water and the last thing she needs is a hurricane deluge and destructive winds. Unfortunately, it will be a possibility on Friday and in the weekend. But there are scenarios in which we would avoid serious effects.
Torrential rains and winds strong enough to bring down trees are the biggest concern. But other hazards could also affect the area.
Depending on the trajectory of the Florence Category 4 hurricane, a storm surge could lift the Potomac and Chesapeake swamp like a bulldozer, pushing the water several feet above the normally dry land along their banks. .
[‘Extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Florence may approach Category 5, as it churns toward the Carolinas]
In addition, rapid tornadoes may form in some of the storm bands that cross the region.
"The potential for a disaster is high," said Jim Lee, a weather forecaster with the National Weather Service serving the Washington area. But he stressed the uncertainties about the specific results, noting that the effects of the storm are still several days away. as the week unfolds. "
Seven-day rainfall forecast of the national meteorological service. It predicts rainfall of 3 to 5 inches in the general area over the next seven days, but much larger amounts in the southwest, where confidence is greater than excessive amounts of heavy rainfall will occur. (Weather band of the capital)
We are very vulnerable
Our soils are saturated and our rivers, streams and streams are full, if not overflowing. If we get several inches of rain or more, the floods will be inevitable and could worsen in the worst case.
"Certainly we are primed," Lee said of any flood. "Even if we are at the northern limit [of the storm]we are going to have flood problems. We are sitting on a barrel of powder. "
[‘A whole lot of rain’: Washington region prepares for a drenching from Florence]
Because our soils have been essentially turned into porridge, the trees are no longer well anchored to the ground. Strong winds, up to a tropical storm force, could drag them in large numbers.
Lee said his office had received eight reports that trees had been cut down during the weekend, caused by gusts of 30 to 35 mph. It is expected that tree damage will increase dramatically if winds reach 40 mph or more.
Storm Scenarios
Scenario 1: Florence heads to southwest and west-central Virginia. (40 percent chance)
In this scenario, the storm would affect northern South Carolina and the outer shoals of North Carolina and cross northwestern North Carolina to southwestern or south-central Virginia.
In the Washington area, there would be a strong gradient between the more moderate rains in the north and the northwest and the extremely heavy rains in the southwest and south could continue for several days, even at the beginning of next week. .
European model rainfall forecast Saturday to Tuesday.
Severe and possibly disastrous floods would occur in central Virginia and could spread to the central and northern Shenandoah Valley and the foothills of Virginia in north-central Virginia.
The immediate area of Washington would receive several inches of rain, which would certainly be enough to cause floods, but perhaps run out of severe and widespread floods.
Gusts of wind would likely reach the strength of tropical storms, causing fallen trees and sparse power outages.
As the storm moved northward, southerly winds pushed enough water into Chesapeake Bay and the Potomac River to cause minor tidal flooding.
The European weather model supports this scenario.
Scenario 2: Florence is moving slowly north, just west of Interstate 95 (25 percent chance)
In this scenario, the storm would land between northern South Carolina and the outer banks of North Carolina and progress north, across eastern North Carolina and central-eastern Virginia. . It would eventually pass through northern Virginia west of I-95.
This is the worst case scenario for the region. This would cause a strong storm surge in Potomac Bay and Chesapeake Bay, causing severe coastal flooding, perhaps not so different Hurricane Isabel in 2003 or hurricane Chesapeake Potomac in 1933.
Depending on the speed at which the storm was moving and the fact that it was slowing or stagnating along its course, severe to severe flooding due to heavy rains would affect the region.
Sustained winds would likely reach the strength of tropical storms, with bursts of more than 60 mph causing fallen trees and power outages.
The UKMet model, managed by the UK Met Office, provides a similar scenario.
Scenario 3: Florence is heading south, North Carolina (20% chance)
In this scenario, the Washington region generally avoids the bullet because the strongest rains and strong winds remain well south of the region. Rains and gusty winds could still bypass the area, especially on the south side, causing flooding and a few trees that fell to the ground, similar to rain and wind over the weekend.
The American Model (GFS) keeps the Florence Storm Center near the outer banks of North Carolina and never takes it far enough north or west to bring significant winds and rains into the Washington area.
The American model (new and old) favors this type of scenario.
Scenario 4: Other (15%)
At the moment or just after Florence 's landing, turning currents will become weak, which will turn her future motion into a kind of joker. Although we have indicated above what we think are the most likely scenarios, it is still possible that it is just a meander near the coast or north or south edges of current expectations.
We are still at least four or five days after this storm, and we will try to reduce the number of scenarios and to indicate more precisely what to expect over time.
Preparation
Although there is a lot of uncertainty about the specific effects of the storm in our area, it is certainly time to start thinking about preparing for this storm. Prepare for the flood by draining the drains and gutters. If you have a basement flooded, consider moving valuables to higher ground.
Do you have trees that could fall on your house during a windstorm? Cut them now.
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