The ECB expects to remain true to its policy despite constant inflation

Emmanuel Dunand | AFP | Getty Images

The President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, attends a meeting of Eurogroup Finance Ministers at the Brussels European Council on 24 May 2018.

The focus of this week's meeting will be in press conference. Three main areas should generate interest:

• Will there be an update of their interest rate forecasts?
• Will the ECB give more information on what it plans to do with reinvestment? How long will they hope to run?
• Does the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, have anything to say about the risks arising from the Italian budget debate?

All of these points could trigger moving comments on the market, but Draghi is unlikely to be willing to provide substantive new information on these bases.

"We expect to hear questions about how the central bank intends to reinvest the proceeds of its maturing securities," said Franck Dixmier, Global Head of Fixed Income at Allianz GI.

"We would be surprised that officials provide clarification at this point, as it is in the interest of the ECB to keep all its options open in the tense geopolitical environment of today" added Mr. Dixmier.

The ECB has committed to stop buying new bonds at the end of this year, but it is now clear that reinvestment of these purchases (as part of its crisis recovery program) and its refined tariff orientation. The eurozone central bank is committed to keeping its overnight rate at at least 0.4% "at least during the summer of 2019" at its last meeting.

The ECB wants to retain its flexibility and has therefore insisted on the data dependence of all its future decisions since they announced the grand exit strategy in Riga. But for now, the data looks good, it is not necessary to change strategy.

Support for this view will also come from the upcoming staff projections that are expected this week and are mostly unchanged from the previous quarter.