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I love the second week of the NFL season.
Week 1 offers exciting opportunities if your analysis of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the league does a better job than public perception. For example, I was not as high as the 49ers coming in the season and I thought the Vikings were good value for less than TD, even when they joined my teaser of the week in that space last week. the crows (cha-ching). And I loved the Chiefs, betting on them to win their division with a rating of +320, so I was not surprised that they had moved the ball at will against the Chargers. Overall, my picks were 9-3-2 at SportsLine in Week 1.
Week 2 can be even more profitable because the books are ahead of the public's reaction to Week 1. Without anything else, many people will give much more importance to the first week than what. they deserve. If a 7-2 Saints team lost to the 3-6 Bucs of Week 11, could we even blink, or would we prefer one of those games each season?
More on the NFL
You'll hear me talking about "lines of thought" this week. What this means is the lines of Week 2 posted by Westgate before the Sunday morning games. Once the games are launched, these numbers become useless, the parts being republished with more or less the lines that you see now. once the action of week 1 is in the books.
If you want to know which sides I like, you can find this information on the SportsLine link below, where all my plays played appear during the season with my five choices of SuperContest each week and a lot of analysis from A fantastic collection of experts. You can also check where each CBS Sports team is at every game here every week.
Every week in this space, I'll go behind the lines and choices to dive deeper into what you need to know before locking your pieces. This includes what lines are on the move, what benefits on the ground are not getting enough credit, what injuries you should watch, my best game of the week, and more.
Let's go.
My choices
At SportsLine, I have participated in eight selections of week 1 and I am likely to have others in the next few days. Sign up now and use the WHITE promo code for $ 1 the first month and you can get the choices of each SportsLine expert throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest choices every Saturday.
However, you can get a free choice with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy!
The biggest line is moving
Colts at Redskins -6
Chargers -7 to bills
Chiefs at Steelers -4
Eagles -3.5 at Buccaneers
Lions at 49ers -6
Raiders in Broncos -6
Seahawks at Bears -3.5
These seven games saw line movements of at least 2.5 points based on what happened during the first week, which represents a ton of potential value. If you were to avoid overreaction in any case, more often than not, you should go out in front. Now, there are a few lines in this case where the new line is actually closer to what I thought it should have been all along, so I'm not necessarily automatically with each big move, but if I find myself on the same side as the overreaction, I probably stay away from the game rather than play it.
The Colts were 2.5 point dogs before losing a tight match against the Bengals (and everyone loved Cincy, the best choice of the SuperContest). Washington beat a team of cardinals that most people now consider terrible. Are the Colts suddenly three points less than Washington on neutral ground when these teams were judged about equally at the start of the first week?
The chargers were favorites at 3.5 points on the reading line, and while you can understand why this has moved so dramatically, is that too much? I've got the Bills as five-point house dogs based on my grades, as difficult as taking the Bills a week after they appear, that's where I think the value is.
The Eagles were favorites by 6 points before the Bucs put 48 points on the Saints. If Ryan Fitzpatrick, ugly, shows up in this game, this line might make more sense.
The 49ers and Broncos were both favorites at three points before the first week. A few days ago, the books thought that the two clashes were quite important even before the land was taken into account. The Broncos have a big advantage on the field and I came across the Raiders, so I think Broncos -6 may not even be far enough.
Finally, the Bears were just favorites of a point before hanging with the Packers Sunday night before a national audience. It will be interesting to see what they did in another time of arrival against a big quarter after being torn apart by their rivals last week.
So who should you return to the first week of the NFL season? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams have won more than 50% of the simulations, all from the model that has surpassed 98% of the experts followed by NFLPickWatch.com over the past two seasons.
The boundaries of the land to know
Raiders in Broncos -6
Vikings at Packers (NL)
I mentioned the advantage of the Broncos at home. they are one of the few teams to give four advantage points in the field. So, it's worth taking the Broncos if you think that they have more than two points better than the Raiders on a neutral ground. I will also note that the Broncos have lost only once at home in weeks 1 and 2 this century. This makes them a good game on teasers and Moneyline parliaments this week.
The Packers are also an excellent HFA team, but there is a caveat: Aaron Rodgers must be in the field. Brett Hundley showed last year that the team's biggest advantage on the field is getting through when the backup is over. If Rodgers plays and it ends up being a choice or close to him, this field advantage could certainly play out.
Giants at Cowboys -3
The Cowboys may have the worst field advantage in the league, and my field-weighted data allows them to become a better team on the road than at home. Their defense has played much better on the road in each of the last three seasons, while the offense was slightly better on the road last year. I only have theories as to why Dallas is so poor at home, but they do it. If the attack continues to struggle, the Giants could be a great value. I give only 1.5 points to the Cowboys for HFA, so they must be 1.5 points higher than the Giants for this line to make sense.
Other poor HFA teams include Buccaneers, Jaguars and Bengals.
Injuries to watch
Vikings at Packers (NL)
Chiefs at Steelers -4
Chargers -7 to bills
Texans -2 at Titans
Eagles -3.5 at Buccaneers
Aaron Rodgers' knee injury is obviously the biggest problem to follow this week, but do not sleep on Davante Adams, who also misses Wednesday's tries because of injury problems. The books will have to wait for Rodgers to have that line, but Westgate sent Vikings -7 for the SuperContest on Wednesday, which would be the case if Rodgers did not play.
Ben Roethlisberger did not practice Wednesday, but he has the impression not to miss the second week. Even the possibility that this happens deserves to be monitored. The Steelers were also denied key defenders on Wednesday, while star goaltender Eric Berry was sidelined for the Chiefs.
We watched Joey Bosa's injury last week and this proved to be a big factor in the Chargers' loss to the Chiefs. The offensive line of the Bills probably can not stop anyone, but they will have an easier job if Bosa can not play a second week in a row, which seems likely at this stage.
The Titans face a multitude of injuries, but Marcus Mariota was able to train on Wednesday. It looks good for the second week, but who knows if he will have any of his starting tackles, while having a new tight end. The defense at least picked up Rashaan Evans in the first round to train on Wednesday. The Texans scored nine players as being limited on Wednesday, including their first two receivers and Jadeveon Clowney. Their Friday report will be crucial to play this game.
The Bucs face a group of cornerback injuries, Brent Grimes still recovering from a groin problem and Vernon Hargreaves at the IR. It might be up to the rookies to face Nick Foles and the Eagles' passing game. Vita Vea and Jason Pierre-Paul also missed the practice, as did DeSean Jackson. The Bucs are already well beaten for the week 2.
Fading the audience
Chiefs at Steelers -4
Cardinals at Rams -12.5
Raiders in Broncos -6
If 80% or more of the action is located on one side of the line, you should consider taking the wrong step, a practice commonly known as "public erasure". If the consensus thinks there is a game included, this should give you warning signs. (All data on BetOnline betting trends via Vegas Insider.)
The Chiefs are getting 87% of the bets right now, as people are looking into what could be the best attack in the league. In contrast, the Steelers looked awful in a draw against the Browns in the first week. They went to Kansas City the following week and beat the Chiefs by six points.
The public loves the Rams who won a big win after the Cardinals ate things on their own pitch in the first game. The Rams get 82% of the tickets in this match. Can books make this line high enough for someone to jump on the dog? The Raiders are in the same place with the Broncos getting 83% of the action. This Rams-Raiders Monday night game is obviously still fresh in the minds of bettors.
Lines I would move
Colts at Redskins -6
Panthers at the Falcons -6
Lions at 49ers -6
I explained during the pre-season how I use the power ratings to determine where I would have the linesand although I do not automatically play a line that I perceive as a value, it's at least the way I look at it by deciding if it's worth playing. I think the excessive reactions at week 1 play a big role in the inflated lines this week, but I wanted to highlight these three games in particular.
Watch the road team for each match, then look at the home team. Could you give a concrete reasoning that one was better than the other before the season? Of the three, I think Washington is the only team to place more than three points, and even then I would not make them more than 3.5 points. The total pre-season market has allowed the Colts to do better than a half-match! In the other two confrontations, the home team at least received one more victory than the team on their total winnings.
Still, I think all these lines are about three points higher, and I think putting home teams in a trailer this week is asking for trouble. Speaking of …
Teaser of the week
Broncos PK vs Raiders
Saints -2.5 vs. Browns
I've mentioned above that the Broncos are an excellent home team in the 1-2 weeks, with only one loss since 1999. As we can induce them to choose, they represent a great option for the team. one of our two steps. of this teaser here. I would still make Broncos a touchdown favorite in this match, so we also get an extra line value.
Few people expected the Saints to lose in the first week and I would be absolutely shocked to drop two home games against midfielders to open the season. If you tease them while they are still at -8.5, you can browse all the key numbers on your way to -2.5.
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