Democrats have the advantage in the November elections

WASHINGTON – Six weeks before the mid-term elections in 2018, Democrats have a 12-point lead over congressional preference among registered voters, with nearly six in ten saying they want a significant change in the leadership of President Donald Trump , according to a new national poll NBC News / Wall Street Journal.

The findings suggest a political environment in which Democrats clearly have the advantage of regaining control of Congress in November.

"Americans are holding back mid-term and are trying to send the signal that they are not satisfied," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the polls of Democratic pollsters at Hart's Research Associates.

"The public is clearly saying that once again, it wants to shake the status quo," said Democratic pollster Fred Yang.

Yet the same poll shows that Republicans' enthusiasm for the upcoming elections has increased, attracting almost the Democrats; that the attacks of the GOP against immigration and the Democratic leader of the House, Nancy Pelosi, are powerful in the individual races; and that nearly 70% of voters are satisfied with the economy.

In the survey, which took place from September 16 to 19, 52% of registered voters said they preferred a Democrat-controlled Congress, compared with 40% who wanted Republican ownership.

This 12-point lead for Democrats – their highest level in the survey cycle – is up from August, when they held an 8-point advantage, or 50% to 42%, although the margin of error the survey is on the rise.

Among the voters most likely to vote – the first time the NBC / WSJ poll measured these voters for the 2018 elections – the Democrats' advantage drops to 8 points, or 51% to 43%.

McInturff quotes warning signs for Republicans. They track Democrats among moderates and independents by more than 30 points; they lose nearly 20 points in women aged 50 and over; and they are late among voters living in competitive congressional districts of 12 points, from 53% to 41%.

In addition, a total of 59% of voters say they would like to see "a lot of change" or "some change" in the direction Trump has led the country.

This includes 61% of independents and even one third of Republican respondents.

And by a margin of 42% to 31%, voters say their message in November will be that more Democrats will serve as a check to Trump and congressional Republicans, instead of Republicans who will help Trump and the GOP to move their order from day. .

President Trump's popularity rating in the survey is 44 percent, down from 52 percent, which has hardly changed since the August survey.

GOP catches up with enthusiasm

The good news for Republicans in the NBC / WSJ poll is that they have caught up with Democrats over the excitement of the upcoming midterm elections.

Sixty-five percent of registered Democrats say they are very interested in mid-term reviews – recording a "9" or a "10" on a 10-point scale – compared to 61% of Republicans who say the same.

This 4-point advantage for Democrats increased from 11 points in August (63% to 52%) and 16 points in July (65% to 49%).

The groups most interested in the election: seniors (73% register a "9" or a "10"), Democrats (65%), whites (61%), Republicans (61%) and African-Americans (53%)).

Groups with the lowest level of interest: the self-employed (37%) and the 18-34 year olds (35%).

The most popular and the least popular positions in 2018

The NBC / WSJ poll also asked voters the key points of the 2018 campaign.

The most popular problems:

• 58% said they were more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who prefers to allow young adults who have been illegally brought into the country by their parents to stay in the United States legally to attend university or work;
• 55% said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who supports cutting corporate and business tax rates – and cutting taxes for most Americans.
• 51% said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who advocated tighter rules on aggression and firearms-type military;
• And 47% said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who promotes "Medicare For All" – a single payer health system in which all Americans would get their health insurance from a government plan.

The least popular problems:

• 82% said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who favors cuts to social security and Medicare to help pay for Trump's tax cuts;
• 55% said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who prefers increased funding for a wall along the border between the United States and Mexico;
• 53% said they were less likely to support a candidate who supports Trump's positions 90% of the time.
• 52% said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the weakening or elimination of the Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare;
• 48% said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who prefers the abolition of the CIE, the agency in charge of immigration and customs control;
• And 44% said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who would support Nancy Pelosi as the next speaker of the US House of Representatives if Democrats take control of Congress.

Sixty-nine percent say they are satisfied with the US economy

Finally, the NBC / WSJ poll reveals that 69% of US voters say they are "very" or "somewhat" satisfied with the state of the US economy.

The all-time record dates back to September 1998, before President Bill Clinton and the Democrats resumed their mid-term seats, while 86% of adults said they were satisfied with the economy.

And when asked if President Trump's policies had helped or hurt the economy, 41% of those surveyed said they were helped and 26% injured. Thirty percent said they did not make much difference.

The NBC / WSJ survey was conducted from September 16th to 19th among 900 voters – nearly half by mobile phone – and its overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. The margin of error for the 594 likely voters is minus 4.0 percentage points.