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"I think there's going to be a real risk – I do not think Trump is pulling a North Korea and trying to expand any kind of olive branch in Rouhani," he said. said John Kilduff, a partner of Again Capital. "This could drive up oil prices because Trump will remind us that Trump's administration policy is the maximum pressure."
The United States withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal, known as the Joint Global Action Plan [JCPOA], between Iran and six countries that have abolished economic sanctions in exchange for Iran's promise to end its nuclear program. However, the Trump administration opposed the deal as one-sided and said it would allow Iran to resume its nuclear program. The other parties to the agreement remain there, along with Iran, but the United States has already planned to sanction the Iranian oil sector at the beginning of November.
According to analysts, about 650,000 barrels of Iranian oil have already been withdrawn from the market. Even if European countries remain in the nuclear deal, many companies will no longer deal with Iranian crude for fear of being kept out of trade relations with the United States. According to estimates, 1 million barrels of Iranian crude could be marketed by the end of the year.
"There is a growing consensus that supplies will tighten towards the end of the year – it's an almost stupid season – we're talking about $ 100 a barrel. 2008, "said Kilduff. "There is no real capacity available, we are very vulnerable and there are no Iranian barrels in inventory."
The United States also opposed Iran's interference in the conflicts in Syria and Yemen, in which it supports rebels hostile to Saudi Arabia. The United States has also accused Iran of supporting terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas.
A terrorist attack in Iran Sunday killed more than two dozen people and injured 70 others. Iran blamed US allies in the region for the attack, led by militants disguised as soldiers during a military parade in Ahvaz. A local Arab separatist group has claimed responsibility.
"Trump will take the podium and I think I will use the same mantra he has been saying for a year and a half, namely that Iran is the main instigator of violence in the Middle East and that only a campaign of maximum pressure can bring the 'Iran to change its behavior significantly,' said Henry Rome, analyst of Iran Eurasia Group. "I think his language will be tough, and it will be quite a contrast because I think Rouhani will use this terrorist attack last weekend to say that Iran is a peaceful country and a victim of terrorism … only as a record broken but on this issue, could also seem pretty insensitive to a terrorist attack. "
Helima Croft, head of commodities strategy at RBC, said the terrorist attack was one of the worst in Iran's recent history and increases the potential for escalating hostilities in the region.
"With the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warning that it will take a" deadly and unforgettable revenge "against the perpetrators, the risk that the cold war will become a hot war seems to increase in our view – a destabilizing confrontation will only grow as that Iran experienced the full effects of the economic sanctions designed to radically change the behavior of the regime in place, if not to change it, "said Croft, in a note.
Matthew Reed, vice president of Foreign Report, said that the terrorist attack and Iran's blame on its neighbors should set off alarms in the region. "This is not a good sign when Iranians are active in the region, they have proxies everywhere," he said. "They have the resources they can call to cause more damage, something that needs to be repeated … for the first time this year, Iranian leaders began threatening strangulation. oil tanker beyond the Strait of Hormuz. "
He said Iran was going to break loose in the United States at the UN. "This is what is expected of them at home, they can not go out there and play nicely, they have to defend themselves loud and clear," Reed said.
Trump chairs the 15-member security council on Wednesday, and said it would concern Iran, even though it should be broader. The other four permanent members – China, France, Russia, Great Britain – and Germany were parties to the Iran nuclear deal.
Rouhani wrote about the division between the United States and its allies in a Washington Post opinion piece last week.
"The United States was expecting a precipitous Iranian withdrawal so that they could easily form an international alliance against Iran and automatically revive the previous sanctions." Our action rather thwarted such a measure. JCPOA and their reiteration of respect for the agreement, which put the United States in a lonely position, was an equally serious and unprecedented gulf between the United States and its European partners on a critical foreign policy issue – this which, I can say, proves that the nuclear deal and our proactive diplomacy. "
Rome said that Trump will look isolated.
"There is no doubt and he intends to ensure that the meeting of the Security Council focuses Wednesday on Iran, despite the agenda of the meeting, and that the European states, Russia and China the deal, "he said.
