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The US space agency NASA has released this week its long-awaited report on the space exploration campaign and this is sobering for those who are still recovering from the celebrations of its 60th anniversary.
The report (PDF) complies with NASA's 2017 Authorization Act (PDF) and is a little late. NASA specializes in delays, so the fact that the roadmap is only very late is encouraging. The report does not make a joyous reading for those who recall the promises of the presidential epochs of George Bush and Barack Obama.
NASA currently has five distinct space exploration objectives: to divest low-orbit operations (LEO) to commercial entities; build capacity to support lunar surface operations; send prospecting robots to the moon; get more boot impressions in the lunar dust; and finally demonstrate how humans could reach Mars.
ISS to Splash?
For the International Space Station (ISS), things look particularly bleak. Federal funding for this expensive laboratory is expected to end in 2025 and billions of dollars will have to be found to prevent the ISS from being sent to an aquatic grave somewhere in the Pacific. NASA's solution is to try to obtain disinterested commercial equipment using the in-orbit laboratory, which has not yet been a great success.
The report sets a deadline of 2022 to determine how to maintain "continued access to a LEO space platform." If the commercial interest for the ISS remains low, a small space station "free-flyer" will be available after 2024.
One of the intriguing nuggets is the statement that US companies have until "no later than 2020" to demonstrate the transportation of astronauts to LEO. After several delays, Boeing and SpaceX are both working until 2019. If this actually happens in 2020, it is quite possible that no American astronaut is present aboard the ISS.
Back to the moon! Sometimes
In the Obama era, NASA had planned to send astronauts to Mars. Now he could come to the moon. In the late 2020s. Maybe.
For humans, NASA's current lunar plan provides for its gateway to be launched into lunar orbit with the first element, the Electric Propulsion Element (EPP) arriving in 2022. The completed station is scheduled for 2026 and will support four astronauts for 30-day missions. Things seem to be cramped – as stated by NASA: "At most, the gate will occupy 20% of the ISS's living space."
NASA also expects its current international partners to participate in the construction of the bridge. Russia has other ideas, not wishing to play the "second violin" to its better funded US partner. With relations a little tense at the moment, the US agency would be forgiven for not being too much in trouble if its former partners did their own thing. Without the fact that the Soyuz, originally designed to go on the Moon, remains the only game in town.
In addition to international arguments, 2020 will see the first unmanned SLS / Orion mission in the "Lunar Neighborhood", with NASA astronauts attached to the NASA gigantibooster in 2022.
In addition to human efforts, NASA is also planning commercial services for its lunar payloads that will culminate in 2024 when it decides how humans will once again reach the lunar surface and be returned to Earth.
The commercial sphere has its eye on Mars, with Elon Musk leading the first paying customer for his BFR trip to the moon. A bit closer to reality, today's announcement that Japan-based Ispace has signed a contract with SpaceX to transport two spacecraft to the moon in 2020 and 2021 as payloads secondary to edge of the Falcon 9 rocket. The goal of the first mission is to circle the Moon. The second will land and deploy a mobile.
With respect to NASA, for 2024 and beyond, the report stated:
Based on the results of the human-era lunar lander capacity demonstration missions, the state of other human systems, other possible mission enhancements (for example, back-braking, launcher availability).
So this is it. Six more years before NASA reveals the date and method for the next crewed moon landing. By that time, 13 years will have passed since the Space Shuttle's last flight and 55 years since Apollo crews laid a flag on the surface. ®
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