Iranian Revolutionary Guards Can Turn Parade's Attack into Political Victory

GENEVA / LONDON (Reuters) – The attack on a military parade in Iran is a blow to the image of its Revolutionary Guards, but the elite force could in turn take advantage of public sympathy to strengthen itself at the expense of President Hassan Rouhani.

Twelve guards were among the 25 people killed on 22 September when gunmen fired on a monitor while military officials attended a ceremony in the city of Ahvaz marking the beginning of the war between Iran and Iran. Iraq in 1980-1988.

The bloodshed has updated the vulnerabilities of guards, guardians of religious power since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, who sought to project an image of invincibility.

The first reactions of ordinary Iranians, however, have been largely favorable, with many posting on social networks support for the security forces.

"The fact that the attack took place on the anniversary of Iraq's invasion of Iran is likely to provoke a nationalist reaction among the Iranians," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iranian think tank project. Crisis Group. Iran has lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers in the war against Iraq.

Images of soldiers protecting women and children with their bodies or moving them away from the scene were widely shared, while more than 20 newspapers used a photo on the front page of a rocking commando while he was holding an AK-47.

"See how a member of the Revolutionary Guards helps a child without fear. Hi to your courage! ", Read a Twitter post, typical of thousands of people.

But a small number of Iranians shared footage of the severe crackdown on protests in 2009, when guards shot civilians in the streets.

Public reaction was similar to that seen last year after 18 Islam activists attacked the Iranian parliament and the mausoleum of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

ROUHANI COULD BE MORE LOSING

The Ahvaz incident could be a setback for Rouhani, a pragmatist leader whose position in Iran has been severely weakened by US withdrawal from a nuclear deal with the world powers he designed and to which guards and other opponents objected.

"The guards will blame Rouhani for the lax situation and consolidate their own agenda in the country," said Ali Ansari, director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St. Andrews.

"Rouhani is a lame duck. He has long lost the ability to challenge the guards, "said Ansari.

"He lost it with the [nuclear deal] and they hammered it. This is the only gift that [U.S. President Donald] Trump gave the guards other ammunition.

The attack, however, is an alarming security breach for the guards, influencing Iran's approach to its neighbors and controlling a multi-billion dollar stake in the economy.

The national resistance Ahwaz, an Arab separatist Arab ethnic group, and the Islamic State both claimed responsibility, but did not present evidence.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the five gunmen had been paid by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and that Iran would "severely punish" the perpetrators of the violence. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are predominantly Sunni Muslims, while Iran is predominantly Shia Muslim.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have rejected Khamenei's allegations.

History suggests that guards will react by oppressing dissidents, an approach that political activists warn could fuel further violence in the southwest, where the attack took place, and where longstanding grievances led to sporadic protests.

To divert the attention of Iran, they can strike abroad, an approach used by the Guards before.

On 8 September, they fired seven missiles at a Kurdish opposition group in northern Iraq, killing 15 people. The judiciary executed three Kurdish dissidents a few hours later.

Both actions were intended to convey a message to the Kurdish community of Iran after the recent clashes between militants and security forces and can be seen as a plan for the likely response of the Islamic Republic to the attack.

REGIONAL RIVALITIES

Iran has had tense relations with its minorities, including Kurds, Arabs, Azeris and Baluchi, and has accused them of aligning with neighboring countries rather than Tehran.

The missile attack on the Kurdish opposition group has also been a warning to Iran's enemies, namely Saudi Arabia, Israel and America, according to analysts, activists and opposition groups.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a battle of influence in the Middle East, supporting opposing parties in the conflicts in Yemen and Syria, as well as in rival political groups in Iraq and in Liban.

An ISIS cell could also have led the attack on the parade, said an Iraqi military intelligence officer, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the problem.

After the recent military defeats in Iraq, some Islamic State leaders crossed the mountainous border into Iran, heading for Afghanistan and Pakistan, said the officer, who participated in the interrogation of inmates of the Islamic State.

They may have helped to form and form small groups to launch guerrilla attacks.

"[Islamic State] have managed to launch terrorist attacks in the West through their own autonomous elements and carrying out such attacks inside Iran will be much easier by taking advantage [anti-government] feelings, "said the officer.

For now, the guards of the revolution are tightening at home. Human rights activists say they have arrested hundreds of Sunni activists and members of Arab separatist groups who have claimed responsibility for past attacks on oil pipelines.

Yaqoub Al-Tostari, spokesperson for one of the two groups called the Arab Fighting Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz, denies any connection with the Gulf Arab States.

"I can tell you that carrying and using a firearm is a common practice among Ahwazi Arabs," he told Reuters by WhatsApp.

"After the cruel repression of civil movements, if our nation decides to use firearms, it can do much more than that."