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TOKYO – When Japan agreed to begin bilateral trade talks with the United States at meetings of the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seems to have finally said "yes" after two years of no. "
Japan has always insisted that it is not interested in entering into bilateral trade negotiations with the United States. Instead, he has repeatedly urged the United States to return to a vast trade pact between 11 countries whose President Trump withdrew during his first week in office.
Japan appeared at first sight to have accepted American pressure and the threat of tariffs on imported cars by agreeing to start bilateral negotiations to "promote trade between Japan and the United States".
Japan has been "hunted in a corner," wrote Taketsugu Sato, national security correspondent for The Asahi Shimbun, a leftist Japanese newspaper. The daily Nikkan Gendai went further by calling Mr. Abe a "traitor".
Yet, by agreeing to open the talks, Japan has been given a reprieve for the upcoming auto tariffs as long as the talks continue. And US officials have also accepted Japan's insistence not to go beyond its previous commitments in the multilateral trade agreement – known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership – to open its markets to US agricultural and forestry imports. .
Some analysts have suggested that Japan has actually performed a little diplomatic jiu-jitsu, seemingly making compromises while vying for US concessions.
For Trump, "These are good lenses, but bad content," said Jeffrey Wilson, a researcher at the Perth USAsia Center at the University of Western Australia.
With Wednesday's announcement, Japan is also engaged in secular bargaining tactics of delay.
"I think the Japanese government's attitude should not be confrontational and seems to apply, but just wait for its time," said Takuji Okubo, chief executive and chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors. "By agreeing to negotiate, I do not think the Japanese government has conceded anything."
The United States is already entangled in a trade war with China and difficult negotiations with Canada, while Trump faces many national challenges as well as the upcoming mid-term elections.
Analysts said US officials may want to use the talks with Japan to score a small but quick win.
"It seems more on the subject," Let's get some sort of agreement and see what we can do to get out of Japan in a relatively short time and then move on to other things, "he said. Tobias Harris, expert in Japanese politics at Teneo Intelligence in Washington. "Whatever you want to say, it's something much more limited than Japan had feared."
Certainly, the postponement of the tariffs of the automobile gives to Japan an immediate margin of maneuver.
Industry analysts said that if the Trump administration imposed a 20% tariff on Japanese auto exports, manufacturers' costs could rise by $ 8.6 billion. SMBC Nikko Securities estimated that if automakers pass on these costs to their customers, Japanese car exports would decrease by 200,000 units, reducing manufacturers' profits by about 2.2%.
In a media address in New York on Wednesday night, Abe, who recently won the presidential elections likely to become the country's prime minister of history, pointed out that US officials would agree to Japan's latest news. opening of its markets for beef, vegetables and other agricultural products. This means that the Trump administration would not get any other concessions from Japan than it has already done in the TPP originally rejected by Trump.
But analysts said Trump could present any deal resulting from the talks with Japan as another victory in efforts to get other countries to tackle trade. The president can "play the card and say that it's an agreement that Japan will open its markets," said Yorizumi Watanabe, professor of policy management at Keio University in Tokyo.
In a press conference on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Trump suggested he had found other ways to reduce the US trade deficit with Japan, boasting that Japan would buy "Doubled" the amount of liquid natural gas she would buy in the United States.
The announcement of the trade talks gives Trump another source of pride, said Ichiro Fujisaki, Japan's former ambassador to the United States. "Now he can say that even Japan has agreed," said Fujisaki.
Given the unpredictability of Trump, analysts warned that in Japan, any feeling of reprieve could be short-lived.
"I do not think anyone is willing to say that the coast is clear," said Kathy Matsui, chief Japanese equity strategist at Goldman Sachs in Tokyo. Still, she said, "coming from the table and having a conversation is not ideal from Abe's point of view, but it also avoids the worst of scenarios for now."
Hisako Ueno contributed to the report.
