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Las Vegas bettors see more than just a usual standings and a undefeated record for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Thanks to a dynamic quarter and an atypical attack, they see a historically good team that forces them to adapt their bookmaking approach.
Ed Salmons, director of ratings at Westgate's Superport, estimates that this year's Alabama team has a total of five points more than last year's championship team – which holds the highest score of its 15 years of computing power.
"There's really no way to stop these guys now," Salmons told ESPN.
Crimson Time covered its first three games with a combined total of 58 points, the highest margin in the country. As a result, the house has begun to charge a "tide tax" on Alabama to offset the interest it pulls on the wager window.
"The Alabama score is inflated every week by four or five points – it's not really the exact number," Tony Nickel, Golden Nugget's director of sports betting, told ESPN. "That's why we do not get any sharp action.All is a public accumulation (by bets, teasers and straight dialects)."
"It just shows how good their level of talent has to be … You watch these [popular] NBA teams like the Warriors and Cavs, if you bet against them blindly, you will probably earn money, "Salmons said. Alabama somehow beats expectations, which is quite difficult because because the gaps are so high. "
Professional punters did away with Alabama last weekend, when they failed to cover for the first time this season. The inflated line made the difference, as Texas A & M scored the only touchdown of the fourth quarter to lose 22 points and cover outsiders by 25 points. This was the highest point scale involving teams ranked in the last five years and the largest line of Saban's career against a ranked team.
This weekend, Alabama is favored by 48.5 points more than Louisiana-Lafayette, which will be the biggest point split between FBS schools over the past five years. "It's a bit complicated because Saban is a gentleman and does not intentionally accumulate points like some other coaches," Salmons said. "If you tell them that they have to score 130 points, they can do it."
The tide bends the muscles when the game is undecided. They covered the first half gap in each game, outscoring their 148-20 opponents, and dominated the country for the first quarter, second quarter and first half.
"Obviously, in the past, the model was defense and [be] conservative in breach. Now, Saban lets the kid go, "Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill, told ESPN:" They can score as many points as they want. He is talented. "
Since arriving at Tuscaloosa in 2007, Saban has produced two quarterbacks that have been recruited into the NFL. In 2014, A.J. McCarron was selected in the fifth round and Greg McElroy was selected in the seventh round in 2011. Last week, our own Mel Kiper Jr. wrote that Tagovailoa could very well be drafted in 2020.
Even the weakness of Alabama in the past does not seem to be a problem this season.
"Playing top teams has always been their weakness – the big test was going to be Ole Miss," said Salmons. "The only thing that Ole Miss does is to score points." They scored in the first game of the game and never scored another point, and for me, that's the thing. more impressive than I saw this year. "
Alabama beat the rebels 62-7 on 15 September.
Westgate put Alabama among the favorites of -225 to win the national championship. In comparison, this time last year, Alabama had +175 to win the title. The Tide won everything but lost his last regular season game in Auburn and took a few breaks to reach the playoffs.
The Golden Nugget has already recorded points gaps for potential clashes in the college football playoffs. Alabama is favored by double digit figures on the Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson and Oklahoma.
"Get Alabama out of the equation and you have a competitive league match with everyone," Miller told ESPN. "But you're two-digit with all these teams, they're really good."
If the tide stays on this crushing track, sports experts will start debating their place in history. In the meantime, the bookmakers I interviewed believe that this is the best team in Saban, especially considering that Tagovailoa has not made a difference in the fourth quarter yet.
"Over the years, [Saban’s] They saw what beat them and they play harder now and they're wearing these guys, "said Salmons. The other teams have no chance. "
While opponents do not have the answer, sports betting uses innovative techniques to level the playing field.
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