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The first fights of the patriots of New England
What is the problem? Ring the alarm: the Patriots are 1-2. A defeat against Miami this weekend would give them three games behind the Dolphins in the AFC East before the schedule reoccurs in October.
We have been here with Bill Belichick and company before. They do not always jump blocks, but this time just feels different. The Patriots seem slow on both sides of the ball. The defensive front is not nervous enough. Receivers have trouble discovering the cover of the man. In the weeks that followed, Jacksonville and Detroit hit the Pats in their mouths – and New England reacted little.
End-of-Season Injuries to Rex Burkhead and Rookie Ja'Whaun Bentley This Week Both had significant play time in the first three weeks and are now out for the rest of the season. We have seen the Patriots go through difficult times before, but they rarely looked so fragile.
What is the probability of continuing? Never bet against Belichick by finding a way: Tom Brady and the Patriots offensive will eventually arrive. They are going to need something from Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman because Rob Gronkowski can not do everything alone.
Defensively, they have all kinds of problems. A good defense is not always spectacular, it lies in the absence of a show. The Patriots continue to struggle with the little things. Detroit had the line of scrimmage Sunday night. There are few coaches and gameplans in season to mask the lack of talent and sportsmanship.
The same problems that hindered the team's defense for two seasons have, to some extent, worsened. That will not stop them from playing in the playoffs, but it will thwart their bid for a sixth Lombardi.
Jon Gruden can not coach
What is the problem? Coaches are seldom as good or bad as they appear in the moment. Right now, Jon Gruden is really, really wrong.
Gruden's second stint with the Raiders could not start on a bad base. There is fighting. He traded Khalil Mack, a future world-renowned player, and the best player on the team, in his athletic bonus. The team is 0-3. Is it a good time to remind you that the Raiders paid $ 100 million to bring Gruden back on a 10-year contract?
There are already real questions about the future of Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, once considered the cornerstones of the franchise. This would be a real problem for Raiders fans. Not paying Mack has a reason, provided that Gruden does not want to tie close to 24% of the team's total capitalization in his quarter and a smuggler.
Decide to write your own quarterback, however, and the Mack movement takes a whole new level of indefensibility. The best time to pay for defensive players is that you have a quarter in a rookie contract – see the Rams with Jared Goff and Aaron Donald, or the Bears with Mitch Trubisky and Mack.
Carr has been on a downward trend for some time. In 18 games since signing, his pass mark was 86.7, averaging 6.55 yards per attempt. This is one of the lowest in the NFL during this period, placing him behind Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles and Shaun Hill. Shaun Hill!
Carr changed his style. He became safer, less efficient. The bomb approach that we had taken care of in its early days in Oakland evaporated. The time-based control system, ball control and the west coast passage of Gruden only exacerbated things. Gruden was supposed to be the quarter whisperer; the guy who brought Carr to the next level. Until now, he has it sub-marinated.
What is the probability of continuing? Things may get worse before you get better. The Raiders are old and slow to attack; they are young and bad in defense. This is a situation that can only be corrected during the off season. There are only nine seasons left in Gruden.
The Juggernaut of the Kansas City Chiefs
What is the story? The fun attack of the Chiefs was the highlight of the season. They have been historically excellent in attack, behind an unprecedented departure of Patrick Mahomes and his group of happy receivers. Andy Reid deserves a ton of credit. He integrated a new quarter, new weapons and tweaked his system. They healed quickly and blew it up.
What is the probability of continuing? I know what you're thinking, we've seen some starts like that by Reid's teams before. We have not really seen anything like this.
There are the same old Reid tactics: drummer-man concepts specifically designed to open less talented receivers against man-made coverage. And the novelties: more widespread principles that place athletes in space and force a defense to play one-on-one. Combine both and you have something very special.
We did a lot of great post-snap Chiefs options. The option can compensate for a lack of talent, but only a lot. The talent wins, and the leaders have it in buckets. Reid's team did not win only through game-design. They are winners because of their speed. It's not coming soon.
The only thing that can slow down the Chiefs is their defense. They currently rank 32nd in the defensive DVOA, the measure of efficiency of Football Outsiders. As they were offensive, they were just as defensive. This is not a sustainable model of success.
At some point, the defense will be used to play. It does not have to be good, or even mean. But he can not hang out at the bottom of the league. Anyway, Mahomes and his company will remain unavoidable.
Problems with the Cowboys offense
What is the problem? The Cowboys attack was completely awful in three games. The team averaged an impressive 13.7 points per game, the second highest in the NFL. Dak Prescott has regressed and failed to throw 200 yards in his last five games. Only four quarters have had long playoffs with at least 25 attempts and under 200 yards. Add to that, in his last eleven starts, he launched eight 11-interception touchdowns.
It's not all about Prescott, though. The defects are deeply rooted. Dallas manages the most pedestrian and predictable system in the league. The offensive line of the team, formerly formidable, is a shadow of his old self because of injuries and a lack of form. The drummer approaches the side used a few years ago when Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott ran into the league as rookies, stopped working.
What is the probability of continuing? The offensive design requires a complete redesign. The only consistent way to move the ball this season has been the subterfuge: passing options or the action of playing.
You do not need a good, even competent, racing game to be a great player. You must simply engage in the wrong, wholeheartedly. Washington was fourth in efficiency at the game in 2017 (averaging 8.7 yards per attempt). The opposing defenses laughed at Washington's game. they are always victims of action-games.
Garrett avoided action-play this season – Cowboys rank 20the in game-action attempts. It does not make much sense. The Cowboys chose to stagger things, performing more quick dropbacks. The problem: they do not have horses to beat men. Apart from Elliott, the team has no proven high-end gaming leaders to speak of. This thing is broken. Unless there is a significant change – the head coach, the offensive coordinator, the caller – there is little chance that things will change.
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