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There was no more history at the beginning of the 2018 season than Patrick Mahomes. The second-year quarterback is the easy choice for MVP in three weeks, playing almost perfect football and helping the Kansas City Chiefs become AFC Super Bowl favorites.
Mahomes, of course, can not play well forever. Although he is somehow the league's best scorer, a 69-hit pace and no interceptions are unsustainable.
When will Mahomes and the chiefs finally come back to earth? There is reason to believe that he will perform in front of a national audience during the fourth week when Kansas City will visit the Denver Broncos at Monday Night Football.
After a defeat in Baltimore, Denver started its season 2-1. A win against the Chiefs would tie them for the AFC West's best record, even though they technically had the advantage over Kansas City because of the tiebreaker.
Denver returns to Mile High, where he defeated the Seattle Seahawks and the Oakland Raiders in consecutive weeks to start the year. The Broncos have one of the best field strengths of the NFL. They are 16-7 in their last 23 home games and 12-5 in their last 17 home games against the Chiefs.
Monday will provide Mahomes with the most difficult test of his young career. He started the season with a win on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers, although L.A. has no advantage on the field. The 23-year-old launched a bad defense in Pittsburgh on the road during Week 2 and the Chiefs won at Arrowhead Stadium against the San Francisco 49ers last week.
Mahomes exceeded all expectations with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. His score of 137.4 is well above that of Alex Smith's 104.7, who was first in last season. He was fired only four times, linking him to 28th in the NFL.
Case Keenum, on the other hand, was not the quarterback Denver hoped to have signed. Asking to get the same player in career with the Minnesota Vikings in 2017 was probably not realistic, but hoping that Keenum could do better than five interceptions and a score of 71.6 through three games was more than reasonable.
There may not be a better team Keenum will face when he tries to make his first impressive performance of the season. The Chiefs are ranked 30th in opponents' yards per game and tied for the last row of opposing yards. Opponent quarterbacks set a 106.3 record against Kansas City, which allowed at least 27 points each game.
Scoring 27 points against the Chiefs will probably not be enough to win, and it may not even be enough to cover the spread. Kansas City is a road favorite of 4.5 points, according to the latest OddsShark odds, and the over 55s. The Chiefs scored at least 38 points in each competition.
The Broncos should be able to put more pressure on Mahomes than he has seen all season. Von Miller remains a high-level player and Bradley Chubb, choice # 5, proves why he was drafted so high. It will be difficult for Mahomes to have another 300 yard performance with several touchdown passes and no interceptions against a talented defense in a difficult environment.
But Mahomes does not have to be as efficient as it was to keep Kansas City undefeated.
The Broncos defense was disappointing at first, allowing Derek Carr and Joe Flacco to lead their attacks on the field without too much trouble. The unit will have to deal with Tyreek Hill, who has turned into one of the league's top receivers, as well as Travis Kelce, who is better than any other tight end, not named Rob Gronkowski.
Because the defense of Kansas City has been so bad and Mahomes is about to regress, at least a little, Denver can stay home. It is difficult to choose the leaders to lose before having a defense that has proven to be one of the best in the league.
Prediction: Kansas City on Denver, 30-28
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