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Sunday marks six months before Brexit Day – March 29, 2019. In the current state of affairs, it will be the day the United States leaves the European Union (EU), whether with a newly negotiated relationship or with nothing.
It may be six months before the Brexit Day, but any divorce agreement between the two parties will normally be concluded before October 18, when the leaders will leave a European summit in Brussels.
Despite rumors that an agreement has almost been reached, the question of what Brexit will look like is tearing the British political scene apart. While EU negotiators and nation-states seem at least united, Prime Minister Theresa May and her conservative party are struggling to agree on a way out.
Currently, the UK is moving towards a "no agreement" scenario in which the nation leaves Europe without agreement and without delay to facilitate the transition. Instead of the two-year adjustment period initially proposed, Britain would be faced with a "cliff edge" exit.
Opponents say the scenario would trigger chaos, steal flights, close border crossings, collapse the pound, and strangle food and medical imports.
This week, May appointed a minister to oversee the protection of food supplies as the government prepares for a scenario without a market. The November 2017 budget provided an additional £ 3 billion ($ 3.9 billion) over the next two years to help prepare the Brexit.
A spokesman for the departing department of the European Union said Newsweek the department is confident that the UK and the EU will reach an agreement. "But as a responsible government, we are developing plans for all possible outcomes."
"This complete, transaction-free preparation will minimize the risk of short-term disruption for individuals and businesses," added the spokesman. "This includes planning and practical steps to make sure we're ready the day we leave, regardless of the scenario."
Industry pending
Non-transaction planning is underway, but it appears that the required infrastructure will not be ready on the eve of Brexit Day. Nevertheless, May suggested that such a scenario would not be "the end of the world".
His optimistic comments have not comforted British companies. Companies of all sizes are already considering delaying important business decisions or are even reducing their staffing and spending to protect themselves from the Brexit shock. Large companies have started to set up offices abroad and move staff overseas.
Sonali Parekh, policy officer at the Federation of Small Enterprises (FSB), said: Newsweek companies are waiting to see the form of the final agreement. She explained that only 14% of the small businesses surveyed by the FSB had started planning a Brexit without a transaction, although as many as 41% think they will be affected.
Recent FSB surveys have revealed that 48 small business owners believe that an agreement without a transition period would have a short-term negative impact on their companies. Combined, these statistics portray a "pretty sobering" image, said Parekh.
In an effort to appease worried Britons, the government has begun publishing a series of policy papers or technical papers. Parekh said that, while welcome, the documents "are the first step in a long process and that there is not much time left".
Although the FSB has not yet asked companies to invest in non-transactional preparations, Parekh said the October summit would be crucial. If no agreement becomes more likely after the meeting, Parekh said the organization would start advising companies to invest money to protect themselves from disruption, while calling for government subsidies to cut costs.
Ladies or bust?
May formulated her own Brexit scheme to try to avoid a Brexit at the edge of the cliff – the so-called Checkers proposal. This establishes a flexible Brexit in which the UK would remain largely aligned with various European regulations. For the Prime Minister and his supporters, this is a practical solution that could be supported by Parliament and win the autumn vote on the final agreement.
But for its detractors, this would make the UK a "vassal state", unable to control its own laws and subject to the vagaries of continental bureaucrats.
The Brexiteers are launching a global free trade agreement without political entanglement with Brussels, similar to Canada-EU relations, for example. These plans did not address several important issues such as the status of the Irish-Northern Ireland border.
But even if his party was invested in Checkers, the EU is not very enthusiastic. At a bloc summit in Salzburg last week, May was humiliated while EU member states were united in their rejection of her plan. What was supposed to be a trip to strengthen support for the proposal left it in abeyance.
Matthew Goodwin, associate member of the Chatham House think tank, said that despite the apparent chaos, "I think the prospect of a zero deal is actually very thin. There is no majority in Parliament for an agreement, the United Kingdom does not want an agreement and the EU does not want to agree ".
Nevertheless, Goodwin said Newsweek he thinks that May will have to evolve towards a free trade solution if she wants to avoid a conservative rebellion.
May presented the debate as a choice between Checkers and no agreement, which Goodwin suggested was not helpful. "He closed other ways that might otherwise be opened to him, such as pivoting to a [free trade]-type of agreement, "he said. "She has also engaged in a way that unites many conservative rebels against her."
Rumors of a leadership problem were numerous throughout May's difficult period, but so far Conservative MPs have not started the process, although some have apparently positioned themselves for first place.
"In the long run, she may not have to worry because I think that in 2019 she will be under more pressure to withdraw," Goodwin said.
While the Conservatives face each other, opposition parties seek to impose themselves. But the second most important party – Jeremy Corbyn's Labor Party – is fighting for an approach covering its two bases of support: largely pro-Brexit working-class voters and middle-class supporters.
Corbyn and many of his colleagues promised to introduce Brexit in one form or another, but they proposed a softer version than that accepted by many Conservatives. But there remain members of the Labor Party who want a second referendum in the hope that it allows them to cancel the Brexit.
For now, Goodwin said, the party does not need an effective and detailed strategy. But beyond October and 2019, an upset May will give Britain its fourth general election in ten years. From here, voters will be waiting for a comprehensive action plan on Brexit work.
"It all depends on Britain's ability to reach the end of March 2019," he said. "If Theresa May and the Conservative Party manage to get there, it will really take away the call for permission to hold a referendum."
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