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It's time for the week 4 choices against the spread. These are my favorite games of the week and they are great!
Many people seem to like Houston here and I do not do it at all. One of the worst offensives in football is on the road to an opponent in the division and I just can not support it. Until now, Deshaun Watson has not looked like himself, and yes, I guess he'll be able to get back on track this week. But beyond "look alike", the offense was flawed. They have not been as creative as usual and maybe Watson and his offensive line are hidden. I also love the Colts defense and how fast they play. They are one of the best league teams in the league, and I think that ended the Texan offense.
If we turn a blind eye, the Colts clearly block JJ Watt, who seems to be back after his 3 bag performance last week. However, the Colts appropriately blocked Watt against his division opponents just under a match. While Andrew Luck gets in shape, he gets better every week and he went home, where he played better than on the road.
Cardinals say you? Yes, the Cardinals 0-3. House dogs this season are 10-4 against the spread and it seems like it's a great place to catch a dog at home against a huge public backing in Seattle. With the departure of Josh Rosen, we must throw everything we know about the Cardinals offensive. So, let's focus on their defense. In the middle of the road in DVOA, in 14 at moste. However, they are sixth at the adjusted bag rate and have 39 pressures this season. They face an offensive line from the Seahawks that is not very good. They are 31st in DVOA and 28e in blocking blocked. Overall, their offense is 26e in DVOA.
Simple enough for me. The New York Jets go to Jacksonville with a rookie quarterback to face this defense. The Jaguars' defense only gives 14.7 yards per game and, unless the Jets have a proper game plan that includes passes down the field, they can not make their way in. score points here.
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