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SKOPJE, Macedonia – The Macedonians decided Sunday on the future of their country by voting in a referendum on the acceptance of a historic agreement ending a decades-long conflict with neighboring Greece by changing the name of their country in North Macedonia, thus paving the way for membership of NATO.
The June agreement would put an end to a dispute dating back to the early 1990s, when Macedonia declared independence from Yugoslavia. Greece advocated the use of the term "implicit territorial ambitions" on its own province of the same name and blocked the country's efforts to join NATO.
But the deal has been met with stiff opposition from the general public on both sides of the border. Opponents in Macedonia, including the country's president, Gjorge Ivanov, called for a boycott of Sunday's referendum. Ivanov called the agreement "poisoning" and "flagrant violation of sovereignty".
Voters going to polling stations were confronted with the following question: "Are you in favor of joining NATO and the European Union by accepting the agreement reached between the Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of Greece? "
The referendum was called as an advisory and non-binding action even though the vote was not required under the agreement. The distinction means that the government could consider the result as a fair reflection of public opinion and act accordingly, regardless of the number of Macedonians participating in the referendum. According to the country's constitution, a binding referendum would require a minimum turnout of 50% to be considered valid.
The campaign that preceded the vote was relatively moderate. Opponents urging people not to vote, the vast majority of posters favored the "Yes" campaign led by the government.
If the vote of "yes" prevails, Macedonia will have to modify parts of its constitution to make sure that it contains nothing that can be considered irredentist against Greece. It is only after the approval of these amendments by the Parliament that the agreement is likely to be ratified in Greece.
The referendum sparked keen interest in the West, with a parade of representatives of foreign governments, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, heading to the Macedonian capital Skopje. Russia's presence raises more and more concerns as it does not want NATO to expand its membership in a part of Europe that was once in its sphere of influence. . During his visit, Mattis stated that there was "no doubt" that Moscow had funded groups in Macedonia to campaign against the name change.
Supporters of the agreement, led by Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, have focused on the campaign as a pivot of the future prosperity of the country, the key to its ability to join NATO and possibly the European Union. This would be a big step for a country that, less than two decades ago, has almost sunk into civil war, while part of its ethnic Albanian minority has taken up arms against the government, seeking to obtain better rights.
Even if the Macedonians vote Sunday for the agreement, the agreement still faces several obstacles before it can be fully ratified.
Constitutional amendments required require a two-thirds majority of the 120 members of parliament. Until now, Zaev has received pledges of support from 73 to 7 less than the required number.
Once this obstacle is overcome, Greece must then ratify the agreement. But Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is facing his own problems. Its ruling coalition partner, the independence president of the Greeks at the time, Panos Kammenos, promised to vote against the agreement in Parliament, leaving Tsipras to depend on opposition parties and independent legislators to push the issue forward.
