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LONDON – Donald Trump has been president of NATO's most powerful country for more than 20 months. Meanwhile, he insulted his colleagues, hinted that he could refrain from protecting them and even pushed a prime minister.
On Sunday, Macedonia will hold a referendum that could allow it to become the 30th member of this troubled club.
The country is part of the Western Balkans – a region "in the line of sight" between Russia and the West, as state secretary John Kerry described in 2015.
The referendum asks the Macedonians to change the name of the country, which has been blocking its membership in international organizations for decades.
Even if they are finally allowed to join NATO, Macedonians could be forgiven for asking what it really means to be part of the military alliance if the US president is often their toughest critic.
However, support for NATO among Macedonians remains high: 77% of them said they want to join the Alliance, according to a survey conducted last month.
"Even a declining NATO is better than the alternative for Macedonia," said Petar Arsovski, a political analyst in the country, who supports membership in the Alliance. "NATO seems to be the only way to move the country on a more stable path."
Many Macedonians were alarmed in July when Trump suggested that he would hesitate to defend Montenegro, which was nearby, even as he had just joined NATO.
Ivan Stojanovski, 36, heard this interview and asked what it meant for his own nation. "For me, it seems that Trump will not defend anyone except himself," NBC News Stojanovski, a computer engineer from the capital Skopje, told NBC News.
Like many Macedonians, Stojanovski puts aside his concerns about Trump and believes that membership in NATO would have wider benefits.
"I do not care if Trump will defend us," added Darko Buldioski, a marketing specialist. "The reason for my support for NATO is to be part of a system capable of supporting the stability and development of the country."
Many Western experts are in agreement. "The Western Balkans is not an area of great stability at the moment," said Judy Dempsey, a non-resident senior researcher at Carnegie Europe.
The region is in a standoff between Russia and NATO for years. Russia opposes Sunday's vote, its ambassador saying that Macedonia could become a "legitimate target" if relations between Moscow and NATO deteriorate further.
This is a concern for a country like Macedonia, which is less populated than Kansas, where a little over 2 million people live and is smaller than Massachusetts.
Apart from Russia, many see the tension between ethnic Macedonians and their large Albanian minority. Calls to redraw the borders of the Balkans have recently resurfaced elsewhere in the region and Macedonia is fearful of being next.
"We see this unfold before our eyes," said Arsovski. "The borders in the Balkans have been redrawn so often that we do not take them for granted unless they are guaranteed by a more important security mechanism like NATO."
However, Sunday's referendum is far from being a simple question of yes-no on the military alliance.
Before joining NATO and the European Union, the country must overcome a major obstacle. Since Macedonia proclaimed its independence in 1991, Greece has blocked its membership in these international clubs because of its opposition on behalf of the country.
This quarrel has its roots 2,500 years ago when part of the two countries fell under the former kingdom of Macedonia, Alexander the Great. Today, Greece has a region called Macedonia and says that Macedonia claims Greek culture – and maybe even a territory.
The deadlock may finally be about to come out. The two countries, now ruled by less nationalist left parties, have reached an agreement: the Republic of Macedonia should be renamed Republic of North Fruit salad
"This is the only opportunity for Macedonia and we must act quickly to achieve positive results," said Jasmin Redjepi, a 36-year-old Skopje aid worker.
But there is another problem: many Macedonians are deeply unhappy with the proposed name change.
Many support NATO, "but not at the cost of loss of identity, constitutional sovereignty, revision of history books and international codes," said Biljana Vankovska, a professor at Sts. Cyril University and Skopje Method.
Skeptics say that is why the words "Northern Macedonia" do not appear anywhere in the referendum question.
A series of Western leaders flocked to Skopje before the vote to try to stimulate enthusiasm. But there are many calls to boycott the vote, which requires a turnout of more than 50%.
"Do not convince us to eat this poisoned fruit," Gjorge Ivanov, president of the National Support Group, said Thursday at the UN General Assembly. This puts him at odds with the center-left Prime Minister Zoran Zaev and his government.
A small minority totally oppose membership in NATO – change of name or not.
Vankovska thinks that it has been mishandled to Macedonians as a panacea that will outweigh the "ineptitude" of their own political elites.
"Having been able to ensure neither well-being nor progress, it was easier for them to count on the promises that once the country was admitted to NATO … it would be paradise on earth," he said. she said. "The same applies to the US, of course."
Others prefer simply closer ties with Russia rather than with the West.
"We share the same values as the Russian people," said Janko Bacev, chairman of the new political party Macedonia United, which has ties to the parliamentary group of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Bacev said these links were "based on tradition, family values and respect for religious identity and international law".
Even some NATO supporters recognize that Trump's rhetoric raises questions for new members and for the future of the alliance itself.
"I think NATO is relevant enough for Macedonia to join, for a number of reasons," said John Lough, research associate at Chatham House. "But for now, NATO looks like a demoralized organization, disagreeing with the current US president – and that matters a lot."
Alexander Smith reported from London, and Vladimir Banic reported from Belgrade, Serbia.
