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(This story of September 26 has been corrected to change the number of registered voters in paragraph 16 to 3.085 million vs. 3.85 million)
By Raya Jalabi and Ahmed Aboulenein
ERBIL / SULAIMANIYA, Iraq (Reuters) – A year after an unsuccessful attempt at independence, the Iraqi Kurds will vote again Sunday, in a parliamentary election that could upset the fragile balance of power in the country. their semi-autonomous region.
With weak opposition parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) are likely to extend their nearly three decades of power-sharing.
But splits within the PUK present the possibility that the PDK Masoud Barzani take a dominant position in Kurdish politics, both in the regional capital Erbil and in the difficult formation of a federal government in Baghdad.
The controversial referendum on the independence of 2017, led by Barzani, promised to put the Kurds of Iraq on the road to a homeland.
Instead, a quick response from Baghdad has wiped out these prospects and reduced the autonomy of the region.
Speaking on the occasion of the first anniversary of the vote, Barzani, who resigned after the Kurdish presidency, told thousands of men waving a flag in Erbil: "We will give up never our dignity and our honor ".
But Barzani – still the leader of the KDP and the main voter – also added that "even 1,000 years of war would not solve the problem."
Although relations with Baghdad have improved, the Kurdish region has lost its territory and economic autonomy, and the frustration of voters is increasing.
"It's the first time I do not vote," said Ahmed Abdullah, a 68-year-old retiree. "The two ruling parties are flying and lying, and that's how they stay in power … I've stopped believing everything will change."
"NOTHING NEVER CHANGES"
Abdullah was a supporter of the PUK, the second largest party led by the Talabani family and based around Sulaimaniya.
The UPK and the PDK of the Barzani clan, based in Erbil, form a dynastic duopoly based on patronage in the regions they control respectively. But years of stagnant politics, unpaid wages and corruption have undermined confidence in politics and reduced participation in the last elections.
The suspension of parliament between 2015 and 2017 has not helped the situation because of fighting.
"What's the point of voting – nothing changes, whether we vote or not, things just get worse," said Alan Baram, a 38-year-old teacher.
Senior KDP leader Hoshyar Zebari acknowledged that the Kurdish fraud allegations in the May federal election undermined public confidence, and said Sunday's vote was "crucial to restoring the legitimacy of our institutions."
But most major parties say they do not expect more than 40 percent of the 3,085 million registered voters to go to the polls – which is even below the record 44 , 5% of the voters who voted in the federal election.
A low turnout could benefit the KDP and the PUK, whose voters tend to be more engaged, respecting their role in establishing self-rule after the 1991 Gulf War.
The KDP also demands some respect for the opening of the referendum, despite the negative consequences for the region, while the PUK has yet to remedy the internal divisions that opened when its founder, Jalal Talabani, is died in 2017.
ALLEGATIONS OF FRAUD
These divisions were not helped by Barham Salih's decision to leave the opposition coalition for democracy and justice, which he founded, to join the PUK and solicit the Iraqi presidency.
The former Salih party has almost collapsed and, by opening the way for the PDK, the main opposition party, Gorran, continues to rebuild after the death of its charismatic leader in 2017.
All opposition parties were further weakened by the mediocre results of the May federal elections, as the two main parties reported numerous frauds, unconfirmed afterwards.
"If there is still a widespread fraud, all opposition parties will be reduced," said Attah Mohammed, of the Kurdistan Islamic group, a sentiment echoed by other leaders of the group. ;opposition.
The elections will darken Baghdad, where the KDP and the PUK are fighting over the post of federal president, reserved for the Kurds since a US-led coalition overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Although historically the post has been held by the PUK, the PDK has presented its own candidate.
Kamal Chomani, a non-resident researcher at the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, said that although he is no longer president of Kurdistan, Barzani hoped to be seen as the Kurdish leader. pre-eminent:
"He wants all players to come to Erbil every time they need to deal with the Kurds."
That this kind of power politics inspires a lot to vote seems dubious.
"I voted in the referendum only for Kurdistan," Mostafa Ali, a 20-year-old fruit merchant, told IRB. "These elections are for the parties, not for Kurdistan."
(Report by Raya Jalabi to Erbil and Sulaimaniya, and Ahmed Aboulenein to Erbil, edited by Michael Georgy, Kevin Liffey and Raissa Kasolowsky)
