Are private trips always viable?

Friday marks the 10th anniversary of the launch of SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket around the Earth. An important milestone for commercial space travel, it was the first time that a privately developed liquid fuel rocket achieved such an objective.

A decade later, we witnessed an impressive success and a devastating failure of the world of private space exploration. As NASA continues its commercial crew program, critics continue to question the viability of private space travel, whether it is suborbital flights currently planned by Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic and Jeff Bezos's Blue Origins. The Kármán line, as the SpaceX of Elon Musk wants.

Although companies like SpaceX and Boeing are working closely with NASA on this program, no private rocket has yet propelled humans into space. "Virgin Galactic and SpaceX are well behind, and Blue Origin has not announced when it will start offering flights," said John Logsdon, founder and former director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University. Newsweek.

When companies finally begin to offer flights, he added, they will have had much more success than problems, and no fatalities.

Virgin Galactic had a tragedy in 2014, when co-pilot Michael Alsbury perished as VSS Business broken in full flight. The company is pursuing its goal of sending humans on suborbital space flights, but has experienced long delays.

Security problems have weighed on private companies for years. NASA's commercial crew program, for example, should see SpaceX and Boeing transport humans into space. NASA has strict safety standards, said Logsdon. Until the companies prove that they can respect them, there is reason to be concerned.

"There is also a rather negative feeling among some members of the US Congress, especially regarding the recent behavior of Elon Musk, which adds to concerns," he said. Musk recently came back on a tweet that indicated he was considering privatizing the Tesla automobile company. On Tuesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a lawsuit accusing Musk of securities fraud. The entrepreneur is also facing legal action after calling one of the divers involved in rescuing the Thai cave a "pedo type on Twitter."

But aside from Musk's behavior, "NASA is working with commercial crews to help them succeed," Logsdon said. "I think they will do it in partnership with NASA."

Private companies can bring a lot to the table of space travel, such as "innovative ideas, good engineers, access to adequate financial resources – and non-governmental passengers – relatively few restrictive regulations". But of course, they all bet on a crucial unknown: the customers.

"It's not certain that there really is a market, at least at current prices," Logsdon said, adding that the first operations will test the market. But Tom Shelley, president of Space Adventures, a company that organizes spaceflights for private customers, thinks there is definitely a demand for this type of trip. "There are more people interested in launching in space than there are places available," he said. Newsweek. "Once commercial vehicle suppliers launch and can reserve seats for individuals, we will be able to outsource flights, otherwise there will always be a disconnect [between supply and demand]. "

Private companies, said Shelley, have been involved in spaceflight since the Mercury project sent the first American astronauts into space. "What has changed is the way private companies are engaged," he said. "The next 10 years will see an increase not only in space tourism, but also in the growth of a new market for industries such as the deployment and maintenance of satellites and research."

Read more: 60 amazing facts about NASA and the cosmos

Logsdon is certain, at the very least, that in 10 years, agencies like NASA will have sent astronauts back to the moon, "either in orbit around or on the surface."

But he has less confidence in the future of travel in the private area. In ten years, "or space tourism companies have managed to create a modest business," he said, "or they will not be in business."